Belmont Park Offers excellent Wagering Card – Horse Racing Picks

Belmont Park has an excellent wagering card on tap for Thursday, which includes five races on the grass, including today’s play of the day, a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares.

The eight fillies and mares that go to the post will be led by my top pick Holy Moly, who is returning off a seven month layoff for a top turf barn in Christophe Clement.

The filly showed some promise in her debut last November with a late running fourth after a tardy start.

She is bred to like the turf, as her mare has already dropped four turf winners and a couple of stakes winners.

The 7/2 morning line looks more than fair, and I am hoping we can get a bet in at 5/2 or better.

The Late Pick 3 offers some value today. While More Than a Reason looks tough in the eight race as the likely favorite, we should be able to pick up a price in the other two legs of the three race sequence.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 5 Md Sp Wt (3:08 ET)
#3 Holy Moly
#4 Mystic City
#6 Delightful Vicky
#2 My Honey Laurie

Analysis: #3 Holy Moly makes her first start since her debut last November where the filly was off slowly and made a mild late run to finish fourth. The winner of the race was Great Gracie Dane, who came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next start, then run fourth in a stake at Monmouth Park. The filly adds lasix here for the Clement barn that is 21% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly has four sibs that have won on turf including stakes winner Celtic Sky ($331K).

#4 Mystic City set the early fractions, headed for home with the lead and could not hold off the winner, settling for the runner up spot. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and she ran well here going long last October, finishing a game second. She looks like a logical player in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,6

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,3,6 / 2,6 / 1,3,4,7 = $24

BEL Race 7 Clm $35,000N3L (4:12 ET)
#3 Smart Woman, #1 Palace Mistress, #6 Kaleigh Rose

#3 Smart Woman tries turf for the first time here for the Tony D. barn that is 17% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. Last out the filly made a mild late run to finish third at Philly going six furlongs on the main track. The winner of that race was From Gray to Gold, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing on May 24. She looks like she should be able to handle turf at least pedigree wise, by Smarty Jones out of a Storm Cat mare.

#1 Palace Mistress invades from Turf Paradise where last out she beat Alw-2L foes rather easily going a mile. Three runners have come out of that race to run back and two of them were next out winners. She looks like she should fit in this spot in her local debut.

BEL Race 8 Alw $12,500s (4:45 ET)
#2 More Than a Reason, #6 Metulla

#2 More Than a Reason exits the True North where the five year old was not as threat in a sixth place finish. He is wheeled back quickly for a barn that is not afraid to bring them back quickly. Two back this guy beat $25K starter allowance foes in a sharp effort, his 11th career win. He looks well spotted here dropping in to face $12.5K starter allowance company.

#6 Metulla was a much the best winner last out against $7.5K claimers in his first start for the RRod barn. This guy still has room to move forward for a barn that seems to be winning with everything, hitting at a 40% clip at the meet.

BEL Race 9 Clm $20,000B (5:17 ET)
#1 Of All Times, #4 Believeinmenow, #7 Lemon Shore, #3 Dark Cheetah

#1 Of All Times battled for the lead and came up empty in the stretch, weakening to finish fifth last out going a mile. The cut back to seven furlongs should suit and the gelding gets a jock upgrade to Ramon.

#4 Believeinmenow made a good late run and could not get past the winner late, coming up a neck shy for the top spot. That was his first go off a 13 month layoff and if he runs back to that effort he will be tough to beat here. He crossed the wire in front in all three of his starts in ’09, getting DQ’d once. He has the back class and catches a soft looking spot here facing non winners of a race on turf in ’10.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #6 Last Noble 10/1
R3: #3 Mad for Smarty 10/1
R4: #4 Gypsy Gent 12/1
R5: #6 Delightful Vicky 8/1
R6: #4 Seattle Dynasty 12/1
R8: #6 Metulla 10/1
R8: #7 Seniors Pride 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!