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Belmont Park Nine-Race Card Betting

September 23, 2010

Look for the toteboard to light up at Belmont Park on Thursday, as there are plenty of live longshots on the nine race card, and plenty of opportunities to pad the bankroll.

The feature is the $60,000 Friendly Beauty Stakes, which drew a field of nine two-year-old New York bred fillies who will go six furlongs on the main track.

The talented Yawkey Way, coming off a smart looking victory in the Ann Clare Stakes is going to be the short priced favorite for trainer Chad Brown.

Her 5/2 morning line odds are likely to go south, and she figures to go off at a much shorter price. While we will use her in our Pick 4 play, I am looking for longshot Rosa Salvaje to be in the mix today if she can get a better trip than she did in her last start.

The filly was beaten 6 ¼ lengths in the Ann Clare in a fourth place finish, but did not have the best of trips.

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The play of the day comes in the sixth race, and Dantastic looks like another live longshot if we see most of his 12/1 morning line.

With New York’s top jockey Ramon Dominguez taking the call, I expect the gelding to take some action in the betting, but we should still see a decent price.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Clm $20,000B (3:39 ET)
#7 Dantastic   12/1
#6 Staying On   5/2
#2 Attempted Humor   2/1
#4 Fagedaboutit Sal   10/1

Analysis: #7 Dantastic makes his third start since Contessa claimed this guy for $20K back in July at the Spa. Last out he was bumped coming out of the gate, came four wide into the stretch but did not have enough punch, beaten five lengths for the top spot. The winner Intercoastal returned to run second at Kentucky Downs versus Alw-1 foes while the runner up El Real Madrid came back to beat $20K and $35K claimers in his next two starts. The gelding has won three times over the Belmont Park turf and Ramon sees fit to ride. He fits with his best and the 12/1 ML looks more than fair in this wide open race.

#6 Staying On is zero for four since coming to the U.S., but this is the easiest spot since arriving. The colt has finished second in a couple of Group 3 races, but Clement has not been able to get this guy to run back to those efforts. This might be his last chance, as someone seems likely to take this guy for $20K. He may be good enough to win in this spot, but the price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7,9

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,7 / 2,4,8 / 2,3,5,6 = $24

BEL Race 7 Clm $25,000B (4:11 ET)
#1 D’lucci Girl, #7 Reprieve

#1 D’lucci Girl was off a step slow and made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot last out for a $40K tag in her first go off the claim by the Dutrow barn. There is not a not of early pace in here, but this filly should be a bit closer with a more alert break. She drops in for a $25K tag but does exit a rather weak race at Monmouth Park. Dutrow is 34% winners second off the claim.

#7 Reprieve made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out on the main track at Del Park against Alw-2 optional claimers and drops into a softer spot here. Two back in her lone go on turf she set the early fractions and weakened to finish eighth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The runner up and third place finisher came out of the race to win next out. The Levine barn has started out quickly at the meeting and this gal deserves another look on turf here.

BEL Race 8 The Friendly Beauty (4:43 ET)
#4 Rosa Salvaje, #8 Yawkey Way, #2 Ginger Snapit

#4 Rosa Salvaje finished behind a couple of these rivals she faces again today, but may be able to turn the tables with a better trip. Last out after breaking a step slow she tracked the early pace while under a snug hold, was in tight around the five-sixteenths, lacked room when a rival came in on her near the three-sixteenths, and weakened to finish fourth, beaten 6 ¼ lengths for the top spot. She took some play at 7/2 considering she broke her maiden at Penn two back in her debut, drawing clear to win by four lengths in good time. The filly has a decent pedigree, out of the stakes placed Navarro Rose ($153K). If she gets a clean trip here, she should give a better account of herself and she likely is overlooked on the tote in this spot.

#8 Yawkey Way beat our top pick last out, winning the Ann Clare by 3 ¾ lengths as the heavy favorite. She had to steady when caught in a bit tight heading down the backstretch, but found room in the stretch and drew off smartly. She has done little wrong in her two starts, breaking her maiden by 5 ½ lengths in a good looking effort during Saratoga’s opening week. The Brown barn had a strong meet at the Spa, particularly with young runners, but has started the Belmont Park meeting by going zero for 11. The filly is the logical one to beat here, but her 5/2 morning line will likely look more like 8/5 by the time they load them in the gate.

#2 Ginger Snapit shares top last out speed fig honors with the likely favorite in here. She earned her fig breaking her maiden in her second career start in a gate to wire win at Saratoga. She was second in a good debut two back behind Higher Desire, who came back to finish fifth in the New York bred Lady Finger at Finger Lakes on Sept. 6. The Todd Pletcher trainee owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and will be the one to catch.

BEL Race 9 Md $12,500 (5:15 ET)
#6 All My Chips, #2 Sea of Liquidity, #3 Bejijing Blues, #5 Seren Trippidy

#6 All My Chips looks like the lone alternative to backing the chalk in here. The gelding ha some early zip and Zito is adding blinkers today. The gelding is lightly raced compared to most of these and if he jumps out to an easy lead as I expect he might, he could pull off the upset.

#2 Sea of Liquidity drops out of a $25K maiden claimer in the slop where the gelding checked in second and earned the top last out speed fig. This guy has been beaten at less than even money in three of his last four starts and will be a short price again today. Brown is coming off a strong meet at the Spa but has struggled so far here (0 for 11).

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R2: #6 Labor Harmony   8/1
R3: #6 Amber Grace   8/1
R3: #5 Ms. Short Pockets   10/1
R4: #6 Quiet Power   15/1
R5: #8 Summer in Giza   15/1
R6: #7 Dantastic    12/1
R6: #4 Fagedaboutit Sal   10/1
R7: #8 Holy Blitzer   8/1
R8: #4 Rosa Salvaje   10/1
R8: #6 Lady Vi   8/1
R9: #6 All My Chips   15/1
R9: #3 Bejijing Blues   12/1
R9: #5 Seren Trippidy   12/1

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