BCS Championship Dream Matchup – LSU vs. California

College Football Futures

NCAA F Odds

To Win BCS National Title

• Florida +180
• Oklahoma +500
• Texas +650
• Southern Cal +650
• Ohio State +1000
• LOUISIANA STATE +1900
• Alabama +2000
• Florida State +2200
• Penn State +2200
• Notre Dame +2200
• CALIFORNIA +5000

What if LSU and California were to find themselves meeting up in the BCS title game? What if the LSU Tigers, who won the national title a couple of seasons ago, were to get there yet again under coach Les Miles, who led them there in the midst of rampant rumors that he was leaving Baton Rouge for the job at Michigan? What if California, which has lived in the shadow of USC for years, was to finally break through and win the Pac-10, and be so impressive in doing it that they got the #1 or #2 spot in the BCS standings?

We’ll talk about that.

Currently Louisiana State is +1900 to win the national title in the BetOnline NCAA betting odds, while California checks in at +5000.

So what would have to happen for this matchup to materialize?

For one thing, there’s a pretty good possibility that LSU would have to beat the Florida Gators once, and maybe twice. LSU is in the SEC West, which means they would first of all have to get by Ole Miss and Alabama to win that division title, and if they did that, they would have to defeat Florida in the SEC title game. That’s three wins over top ten teams right there, so there is no question that if they got through the SEC, they will have done enough to merit a spot in the championship game in Pasadena.

If California was to get to the title game, it would probably mean an undefeated season, and although the Golden Bears have to avoid upsets just like every other team, they have a less grueling route. The real threats in the Pac-10 include Oregon and Oregon State, and of course, the USC Trojans. Cal will have to beat USC, and they may have a chance this year if USC’s rookie QB plays like, well, a rookie.

To visualize Cal in the BCS final, you have to imagine that the defense has elevated itself to another level, not that they would necessarily have to, because this unit was in the top 40 in the nation in both rushing and passing defense last season and brought back nine starters. One of those starters is a bona fide All-America candidate, Sy’Quan Thompson, who has the ability to shut down the other team’s top receiver.

We’d also have to assume that quarterback Kevin Riley comes into his own in some way, who has experience yet will be the full-time starter for the first time after Nate Longshore left. Riley threw 14 TD passes with just six INT’s last year. Receivers would have to emerge, and they probably will. Nyan Boateng averaged 15 yards a catch last year, while Verran Tucker averaged 17. Marvin Jones, a highly-touted high school player, was sidetracked by an injury in 2008 and will be available.

Most of all, if you saw Cal in the title game you could almost assure yourself that it had one of the most devastating rushing attacks in the country. Jahvid Best, who averaged 8.1 yards a carry in ’08, would probably be a Heisman candidate to some degree, and he would be joined in a big way by another big talent, Shane Vereen, another former high school stud who had 715 yards as a freshman and will give Best sufficient rest. If he gets some balance in the offense, that’s going to make Jeff Tedford’s play calling even more dangerous.

You could bet that if LSU got there, Charles Scott will have improved in his numbers from a year ago, when he gained 1174 yards with 18 touchdowns. Scott could, in fact, pick up some Heisman support along the way, and if he is successful, that will make life easier for the passing game. Speaking of which, Jordan Jefferson, the sophomore quarterback who was the offensive MVP of the Chick-Fil-A Bowl win over Georgia Tech, will have to fulfill his potential. Jefferson can be a two-way threat, but in one of those ways, he’ll have to improve, because he failed to complete 50% of his passes in the limited action he got in 2008. he would definitely have enough receivers at his disposal to do it.

Defensively, LSU has to once again return to the unit that stopped offenses cold. Last season the Tigers gave up 24 points a game and allowed more than 50% completions for the first time in seven seasons, but there’s a nice infusion of talent there, along with the entire linebacker corps coming back, so there is a chance for that to happen.

In this matchup, LSU would be more of a battle-hardened crew. After all, what’s better preparation than having to navigate your way through the SEC? Some of these players will have still been around from the last time this team won the national championship, and perhaps this kind of experience is an edge too. Sure, I would afford the advantage to LSU, but my fear is that they will be laying too many points on reputation, and Cal cannot possibly be counted out with a 1-2 backfield punch like Best and Vereen. Don’t count out the Bears.