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Basketball Sportsbook – #1 Duke Lays Heavy Chalk at Florida State

January 13, 2011

Basketball sportsbook bettors know that the Duke Blue Devils, the #1 team in the nation, are going to be a favorite in every game they’re in, but they are laying some heavy chalk as they travel to Tallahassee to play the Florida State Seminoles.

The game starts at 9 PM ET at the Tucker Center in Florida’s capital city, with Duke an 8.5-point favorite in the basketball sportsbook odds.

Wednesday, January 12

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#1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS (15-0 SU, 7-6 ATS) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (11-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS)

9 PM ET — Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL

Basketball Sportsbook Odds:

Duke -8.5

Florida State +8.5

Duke is pretty unflappable, as we know, having won seven of their last eight games as the road team. And it obviously goes without saying that the Blue Devils have turned back any and all strong competition, including Marquette, Kansas State, Michigan State and Butler, in the rematch of the national title game from last year. However, Duke has not been such a dynamic choice against the number, going 7-6 ATS in the basketball sportsbook. Maybe part of that is the injury to Kyrie Irving, the freshman star at point guard, who’s got a toe injury that might make him unavailable for the rest of the season. But Duke is going to be overpriced under most circumstances anyway. Nolan Smith has flourished, at least from a scoring standpoint, since he took over at point guard, averaging 25 points over his last six games. And now Tyler Thornton is being worked into the rotation at point guard to offer more flexibility.

Florida State has allowed opponents to shoot just 35% from the field, and Nebraska has been the only team that has been stingier from that perspective. Certainly Leonard Hamilton’s team would like to slow the pace down, and their preferred scenario would be to funnel people into the middle, where Chris Singleton and Bernard James would be there to swat away shots. generally, this allows a team to get out on the perimeter a lot better. But starting forward Xavier Gibson, who is one of those guys who provides interior defense, is out with a broken hand. This is a team that is going to have a hard time putting the ball in the hoop; they have shot below 40% in four of their last five games, and outside of the very capable Singleton, the team shot just 27% against Virginia Tech last time out. I just think Duke can wear them down, and they’ll have too much trouble trading points as this gets into the second half. We’ll lay the number, as burdensome as that might look.

JAY’S PLAY: DUKE -8.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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#24 GEORGIA BULLDOGS (12-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) at VANDERBILT COMMODORES (11-3 SU, 7-2 ATS)

9 PM ET — Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville

Basketball Sportsbook Odds:

Vanderbilt -8.5

Georgia +8.5

Vandy is one slick shooting side, hitting almost 47% for the season and averaging eight treys per contest. And with Festus Ezeli down low, you can’t really "cheat" when defending the ‘Dores in the half-court. But Georgia is going to give Vanderbilt enough to worry about in its own defensive setup., Here’s a team that beings balance and rebounding to the table, and the surge of junior forward Trey Thompkins (51 points, 14 rebounds in last two games) has been something to see. The Bulldogs don’t concentrate a whole lot on three-point shooting, but they hold their own in every other aspect of play here, and if they’re not "hung over" from it, they will carry a lot of confidence from their win over Kentucky. Let’s not lose sight of who the ranked team is here; while Vanderbilt dropped out of both polls this week, Georgia’s in the Top 25 for the first time in seven years after winning nine games in a row. They become a value play in the basketball sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY: GEORGIA +8.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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