Basketball Betting Odds – Wide-open Warriors play surprising Thunder

Golden State is way out of the playoff picture, but this has been one of the NBA’s best bets against the pointspread, and even after helping their coach to the record for most wins, the Warriors are still driving hard for Don Nelson. On Sunday, Golden State tries to continue what appears to be a pretty strong finish as it takes the floor against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, and whoever is going to own the team next season (the franchise is for sale), you can bet they will appreciate the offensive talent they’ll inherit.

Oklahoma City Thunder (48-30 SU, 46-32 ATS) at Golden State Warriors (24-54 SU, 45-32-1 ATS)

Sunday, April 11 – 8 PM ET

(Records good through Thursday’s games; check Friday’s results)

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup (Trends good through Thursday’s games; check Friday’s results):

• OKC has covered four of its last six games
• OKC has won 15 of its last 22 games SU
• OKC has played five of its last six games OVER the total
• OKC has won six of its last nine road games SU
• OKC has played its last five road games OVER the total
• GS has covered 11 of its last 16 games
• GS has won four of its last six games SU
• GS has lost 13 of its last 20 games SU
• GS has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
• GS has covered eight of its last nine home games
• GS has played seven of its last eight home games OVER the total

The Warriors have won only 24 games, but they are one of the more exciting teams in pro basketball, and with their arsenal of offensive weapons, they are a good bet to score10 points, particularly when they win. Out of Golden State’s 24 victories, seven of them have come since March 13, and only one of them has occurred when they have scored less than 100 points.

Of concern to most NBA betting fans is that the Warriors are still ranked near the bottom of the league in some critical statistical categories. For example, they rebound less than anyone (38.4 per game) and with the 47.8 rebounds they allow (also last) they are operating with a minus-9.4 margin per game, which will kill almost any team’s chances. When you surrender 112.5 points per game, you also have to have a good shooting on most nights to overcome the lack of defense.

Here are the head-to-head NBA betting trends for this game:

• OKC has won five of the last six meetings SU
• GS has covered four of the last six meetings
• Seven of the last eleven meetings have UNDER the total
• GS has won six of the last nine meetings SU as the home team
• OKC has covered five of the last six meetings as the road team

Golden State Warriors has been a banged-up team for most of the year. Anthony Randolph, Vladimir Radmanovic, Andris Biedrins and Kelenna Azubuike are out of action; CJ Watson is day-to-day with a rib injury, and Monta Ellis is still listed as questionable with the flu. Ronny Turiaf came back to the lineup after a bout with the flu, but is still not near full strength. All of these absences have led the Warriors to dip into the D-League for talent, and actually some of the results have been plesant, including Chris Hunter, who has added some size and toughness to the situation.

Stephen Curry, the very impressive rookie, has scored 29, 27 and 27 points the last three games, and with about 17 points a game and an increasing number of assists, he is about as good a rookie of the year candidate as anybody. He even turned around Ellis, who was ready to bolt when Curry arrived. "He earned a lot. He came in and proved people wrong – proved me wrong," said Ellis.

The Warriors have been a very solid betting play in almost every way, with a 45-32-1 ATS record. But going into the weekend, the Thunder was in virtually the same place, at 46-32 ATS. With a very tight race in terms of jockeying for playoff position (OKC was tied with San Antonio and Portland for the sixth spot in the West) and having demonstrated some superiority in the head-to-head this year (three wins by 34 total points) we expect that Oklahoma City could take advantage of a possible letdown by Golden State after setting the record for Nelson. But getting a cushion, the Warriors have enough firepower, even short-handed, to make for a viable betting underdog.

JAY’S PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA CITY BY 7