Baseball Predictions – Orioles Try to End Drought at Fenway

There is little doubt that two of the more disappointing teams in the American League this season are the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles. On Saturday they will meet up at Fenway Park in Boston, where the Oriole bettors have failed to cash in on 32 of the last 40 occasions, including 13 of the last 14.

Taking the mound for the Red Sox, and looking to turn things around, is Jon Lester (0-2, 8.44 RA0, while the Orioles will counter with right-hander Jeremy Guthrie (0-2, 3.15 ERA).

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Saturday, April 24 – 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park, Boston

Here are some of the Major League Baseball betting trends for this game:
(Numbers are good through Thursday games; please check Friday results)

• Baltimore has lost 12 of its last 13 games
• Baltimore has played 16 of its last 22 games UNDER the total
• Baltimore has played eleven of its last 13 road games UNDER the total
• Baltimore has lost six of its last seven road games
• Boston has lost six of its last eight games
• Boston has lost seven of its last nine home games
• Boston has won the last eight meetings
• Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
• Boston has won 13 of the last 14 meetings as the home team

Going into the weekend, both of these teams were struggling. Before Friday’s games the Red Sox were 6-10, which already out them six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and 5.5 in back of the hated Yankees. The Orioles had a 2-14 record, which was simply the worst in baseball. Obviously the O’s are far and away the worst bet in baseball as well. Baltimore has produced a return of -$1205 to those who have backed them this season, and no other team has done nearly as bad.

The Red Sox are the worst as a betting favorite, bringing a loss of -$678, based on closing betting lines, and it is at Fenway where they have done the most damage – to themselves, that is. The Sox had lost seven of their ten games as the home team as of the start of the weekend set against the Orioles.

Will they be so disastrous considering the trends they have that favor them against the Orioles? The Red Sox have won 13 of their last 14 meetings at home against this Oriole team, and it would appear that they are catching them at the right time. We know that Jon Lester hasn’t really delivered thus far, and was shelled by the Rays last time out, but we also know that he has demonstrated as much mastery against the Orioles as any pitcher against any team.

Lester is 10-0 lifetime against Baltimore, with a 2.39 ERA, and won four of those games last year with a 1.13 ERA. Of course, you probably need to consider that Lester is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA in April throughout his career.

No matter – we believe that the awful qualities possessed by this Oriole team can cut through just about anything. We have to recommend at least a small bet on this Red Sox team; small because they will no doubt by laying a big number, despite their horrible start and standing. Remember, nothing overcomes how bad the O’s are right now.

JAY’S PLAY: BOSTON **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)