Bank on the Broncos in the College Football Opener – Oregon at Boise State

The 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-3 SU, 7-2 Conf., 7-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U) and the 14th-ranked Boise State Broncos (12-1 SU, 8-0 Conf., 8-3-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U) will both be looking to get their 2009 regular seasons off to a solid start when they battle at Bronco Stadium tonight at 10 PM ET.

Oregon will look to extract some revenge for last season’s 37-32 home loss to Boise State, but will be doing so under a new head coach as former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly takes over for former longtime head coach Mike Bellotti for the 2009 season and foreseeable future.

Oregon kicks off the Kelly era on Boise State’s nearly unbeatable blue turf, where Broncos head coach Chris Petersen has never lost a single game since taking over as head coach back in 2005.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAAF Free Pick.

Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. WAC.

Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.

Ducks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in September.

Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.

Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-10.

College Football Odds

Oregon +3 -110

Boise State -3 -110

Over 64 -110

Under 64 -110

Analysis: While the Oregon Ducks are going to be a very solid team this year and one that is extremely potent on offense, the Boise State Broncos are the correct pick to win this contest and set themselves up for some BCS national title talk even at this early juncture of the season.

The Broncos ranked 12th in the nation in scoring last season, averaging a stellar 37.6 point per game and also excelled on defense in a big way, limiting their opponents to just 12.6 points per contest, good for third in the country.

Oregon isn’t exactly bereft of talent and should give the Broncos all they can handle after putting up a jaw-dropping 41.9 points per game last season, good for seventh in the nation.

The Ducks will need to improve on a defense that gave up 28.2 points per game and ranked 79th in the country.

The Broncos return 12 starters, six on each side of the ball and will cover the spread in what looks like another barn-burner waiting to happen.

Again, BetOnline NCAA college football betting enthusiasts, Boise State lost their last home contest way back on Dec. 28, 2005, falling to Boston College in the Humanitarian Bowl, but the team hasn’t dropped a regular-season game at Bronco Stadium since suffering a convincing 41-20 loss to Washington State on Sept. 8, 2001.

Cementing my selection of the Broncos is the fact that the Broncos have also gone an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

While the Oregon Ducks have gone an encouraging 4-1 ATS in their last five games against WAC teams and 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games, I’m sticking with Boise State as they have proved they can play with any top BCS program in the nation by going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against Pac-10 opponents.

Take the Broncos to cover the spread in a thriller that plays just Under the set O/U total.

NCAAF Free Picks: Boise State -3 Points/Under 64 Total Points