UFC 145 – Jones-Evans has Fight of the Year Potential

UFC 145 Free Picks:

Event: UFC 145 – Jones vs. Evans
Time: 9:00pm EST
Location: Philips Arena, Atlanta

Jon Jones (-500) over Rashad Evans (+350)
Defending champion Jon Jones is achieving a multitude of incredible accomplishments in MMA betting as the light heavyweight champion, but nothing to me is more impressive than his ability to leave no doubt that he is a deserving title bearer. The Light Heavyweight Championship was passed around like a doobie since UFC great Chuck Liddell held the strap. Before Jones, the title had been held by five different fighters and only defended successfully twice.

In fact, many people don’t really count Lyoto Machida’s title defense against Mauricio Rua at UFC 104 as a true victory. Rampage defended the title successfully at UFC 75 back in 2007 against Dan Henderson. However, Forrest Griffin, Mauricio Rua and the man who is trying to dethrone Jones, Rashad Evans, all lost the title in their first attempt at defending it.

Jones has been a revelation of sorts in this regard. The light heavyweight division is so jam packed with talent that keeping the title started to seem impossible. That didn’t stop us from announcing the “The Year of the Dragon” or the “Shogun Era” when they both began, but Jones has been the only one to legitimately and vehemently cut down anyone planning to storm his castle.

Keep in mind that both Machida and Rampage won via decision in their title defenses. What makes Jones’ safeguarding of the light heavyweight title even more impressive is that his two wins as champion have both come via submission over the two men listed above.

And he’s doing this all at the age of twenty-four.

We’ve anointed and praised champions far before they deserve it, and if Jones can notch a win over former champion Evans on Saturday at UFC 145 then he inches closer to Tito Ortiz’s division record of five consecutive title defenses. Considering the talent that he’s facing, it’s easier to surmise that Jones is poised to make a better run than Liddell (four successful defenses) and Ortiz. That, however, is a debate for another time.

Evans won’t be an easy opponent, and that is as big of an understatement as I’ve ever written. There’s a lot to say about a fighter who is 17-1-1 SU in his professional MMA career, but at 32-years old it’s hard to say if Evans can keep pace with a longer, stronger and more dangerous fighter like Jones.

Since losing his title to Machida in convincing fashion back in 2009, Rashad has been on a tear winning four straight fights. Three of those – fortunately and unfortunately – have been by decision, but a TKO over a Tito Ortiz in a bout that earned Fight of the Night honors proved that Evans still has “it”.

Well, sorta. It’s not like a win over Ortiz at this point is that big of a deal especially when Evans is clearly the best contender for the title.

On paper this is a nightmare for Evans and the odds reflect that in every way. Rashad is giving up nearly 10 inches in reach to Jones, along with another 5 inches in vertical height. What makes Evans great is his wrestling, but Jones has shown that his takedown defense is incredibly sturdy, and his uncanny combination of reach and speed allow him to control space at his discretion.

The idea here for many will be for Evans to take this fight to ground because you simply can’t win by staying on your feet against a lengthy striker like Jones. On the mat, however, Jones has proven difficult to contain mostly because of his height makes his body unmanageable for opponents.

It’s not like Evans has any advantages in the experience department despite the eight year age difference. Both Evans and Jones lost in 2009, the difference being that Jones was disqualified for illegal elbow strikes while Evans gave up the title to Machida at UFC 98.

Frankly I don’t think Jones has a weakness. It’s not like he’s prone to getting rattled like Rampage is, or turns in to Jell-O when someone actually punches him in the face like Machida. All the edges go to the champ in this fight, with the only discernible worry being that he is starting to concern himself with his brand or dynasty.

Jones doesn’t come off as that type of fighter, and really the only way a UFC athlete promotes himself is by winning fights. That comes first and foremost, but what do I know?

Well what I do know is that Jones has successfully defended his title against two excellent former champions and for all intents and purposes he’ll add a third to that list. You are watching a true legend grow before your eyes. Jones is young enough to rebound from a loss at this point in his career, but by every conceivable angle in this fight, he will win outright and prove that his legend is worth believing in despite a division that boasts the best overall depth.

MORE UFC 145 QUICK PICKS!

Rory MacDonald (-500) over Che Mills (+350)
While Mills made the most of his UFC debut in England at UFC 138, he won’t have as much success against a tough nut like Rory MacDonald. Youth and rage are on MacDonald’s side, and he’s desperately trying to get himself in the welterweight title picture. A gimme win over the overmatched Mills will help. I just don’t trust anything on Mills since most of his success has come when fighting at home in England. The Dirty South might not be so kind to him.

Brendan Schaub (-260) over Ben Rothwell (+200)
I’m still not really sure why Schaub calls himself “The Hybrid” (does he run on energy and petroleum or something? Is it because he played Arena League and NFL football? I don’t know.), but the one thing you can’t doubt is his talent. At 8-2 SU and just 29-years old, Schaub is simply one of those gatekeepers in the heavyweight that will always perform well against lesser talent. He gives up a significant amount of weight in this matchup, but he makes up for that by simply being more agile and faster than the 265 pound Ben Rothwell.

The 30 year old Rothwell is just 2-3 SU in his last five fights and 1-2 SU in the UFC so far. This is as much a test for Schaub as anything else, and I’m banking on him passing with flying colors. He knows he can’t lose this fight and he has the tools to control this fight and win a brawl over the slothy and sloppy Rothwell.

Eddie Yagin (+475) over Mark Hominick (-750)
Sure seems like I’m taking Yagin as an underdog pick here since I’ve sided with all the favorites so far, right? Well, I like Mark Hominick a lot but his two losses to Jose Aldo and his devastating KO defeat at the fists of Chan-Sung Jung in just seven seconds make me weep for him. The American born Hominick claims that he had a lot to prove in his last fight, which led to him opening up his defense and getting plowed through the skull in the opening round.

My question is this: doesn’t he have even more to prove now? Yagin is a relative unknown in the featherweight division outside of the UFC and losing his debut fight by decision against Junior Assuncao at UFC 135 didn’t help much. However, Yagin is a dangerous former Tachi Palace Fights Featherweight Champion who, at 15-5-1 SU, loves to bring the fight right to your doorstep.

The logic seems to be that Hominick will rebound for a great win here, but all he’s done after the last fight is compound pressure that he hasn’t responded well to. Yagin’s odds are worth a flier bet all things considered.

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Something’s Brewing in La-La Land

Pro Basketball Free Picks:

With just a handful of matchups left in the NBA betting regular seasons, this 66-game gauntlet of a season is finally coming to a close. That gives us barely two weeks to prepare for the playoff betting onslaught. This Friday, three teams are trying to hold onto their post-season dreams and so I’m previewing these games.

As is the case, my editor asks for these Wednesday morning so keep an eye on these matchups when they appear on the board Friday morning. All news and stats are relevant as of right now, and the home team is in CAPS. Best of luck.

NEW YORK KNICKS over Washington Wizards
The Knicks have gone through a roller coaster this year, and the ride isn’t over as they attempt to fend off the Milwaukee Bucks for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They could conceivably end up seventh in the conference with Philly falling apart, and though I’d love to use the old adage “their fate is in their hands”, the Heat, Celtics, Clippers and Hawks might have something to say about that. Those are four of their final eight opponents in the regular season.

For all the wonder and splendor this team enjoyed before injuries stunted the Amare and Jeremy Lin runs, it’s kind of crazy to think that the Knicks are a redux of the Denver Nuggets. Building your team around a strong center (exchange Nene for Chandler) and a bunch of support players around J.R. Smith and Carmelo is exactly how Denver was structured. They even have the veteran guard, instead using the carcass of Baron Davis in place of Chauncey Billups.

This team has gone a pretty bleak 6-4 SU and ATS over the past 10 games and the oddsmakers are having a much easier time grading them as a one-man army around Melo. The difference is that Chandler’s rebounding efforts are giving the Knicks second chances they might not deserve. So against any defensive team, the Knicks are going to be rough bets.

Too bad the Wizards don’t play defense. Washington is just 5-5 ATS in their last ten games, and Wall will have more trouble with Iman Shurpert than you’d think. Washington stands to get a bloated line here, but I’m not going to be scared of it. The Knicks are 18-11 ATS at home this season and there isn’t a player on the Wizards’ roster which can stop Melo for four full quarters. If you’re nervous of the back door cover here, go with the Wizards, but I’m banking on the Big Apple Boppers (ok, fine, nobody calls them that).

Denver Nuggets over LOS ANGELES LAKERS
For the cover. Lost in the shuffle of the always intriguing Western Conference playoff race are the Nuggets, who have gone an unhealthy 5-5 SU and ATS over their past 10 games. The Nuggets have a slew of big bodies to throw at Gasol and Bynum, and while none of them can stop them from producing, they can give Denver balance on both ends of the floor.

Frankly, the Lakers have been a stay away play for almost the entire second half. Need proof? Fine. They’re 6-4 SU in their last 10 games with losses to Houston, OKC, Memphis and Phoenix. Two of those losses are excusable, but what’s nauseating from a Basketball gambling standpoint is their 1-9 ATS record over that run.

Denver desperately needs this game with Utah and Phoenix breathing down their throats for the final playoff spot out west, and with Kobe resting an injured shin, the Lakers are probably going to coast into a top-5 playoff spot and be happy with it.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS over Dallas Mavericks
Portland isn’t really mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they are pragmatically. They gave up on the season at the mid-point, and it’s hard to blame them. They will probably still have a top-7 draft pick to concern themselves with courtesy of New Jersey. At just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, they’re not really a great bet momentum wise.

However, Dallas is going to get a big number in this game and I doubt they can cover it. They’re just 5-5 SU and ATS over their last 10 games and have been pushed into overtime twice by Portland this season. To put it simply, the Blazers find ways to give the defending champions fits on the floor.

If Dallas is anything above -5.5 point favorites, I’d take the home team. If the oddsmakers play it smart and shrink the line to -4.5 or less, then Dallas is a better bet statistically. Just because Portland has basically forfeited a playoff run this season doesn’t mean they’re just slinking away into the shadows. They always play Dallas tough and Friday night at home won’t be an exception.

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Top Teams Need To Bounce Back This Weekend

Baseball Free Picks

NEW YORK YANKEES over Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Ervin Santana (0-1) (LAA) / Hiroki Kuroda (0-1) (NYY)

The New York Yankees will host the Angels in their home opener this season, and both teams are looking to correct some not-so-great starts to the year. Albert Pujols did one of his main jobs in Los Angeles, generating tons of excitement for the Angles and selling season tickets. Now he has to make sure this team can contend with the best of the best in the American League.

The Yankees will send Hiroki Kuroda to the stripe, and he isn’t exactly getting his 2012 campaign off to a glimmering start. In just 5.2 innings pitched, he was blasted for 8 hits and 6 runs against Tampa Bay giving him a 6.35 ERA.

Ervin Santana gets the nod for the Angels after getting crushed by KC in 5.2 innings for 7 hits and 6 runs. He may have just as much trouble keeping the hard hitting Yankees at bay. The Yankees have averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Angels’ defense hasn’t bailed their pitching staff out at all.

It’s hard to get all puffy about April wins and losses in MLB betting, but the Yankees can’t really afford to get off to a bad start in a four-horse race that will only have two podium spots in September. The AL East is already the center of intrigue in baseball, and favored Yankees will use the Angels to exorcise some demons on Friday the Thirteenth.

Tampa Bay Rays over BOSTON RED SOX
Starting Pitchers: David Price (1-0) (TB) / Josh Beckett (0-1) (Bos)

The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a strong start this season, which isn’t usually what we say about them. With David Price defending the mound against the struggling Red Sox, this is virtually a surefire bet considering how strong the Rays have played. They’re 3-1 SU and have also scored well enough to protect the runline in all but one game against Detroit.

All hope I have for Boston this season resurrecting themselves after an injury plagued 2011 season is still on hold, and Becket won’t change that. He gave up 7 hits and just as many runs in just 4.2 innings leading to a blowout loss against the Tigers.

Boston’s offense has helped the Sox keep pace on the scoreboard, as they’re 3-2 against the runline, but that isn’t a comforting bet against a team as deep as Tampa which will just keep running you in to the ground. For now Tampa is the safe bet. Talk to me about this matchup the next time these two clubs meet and hopefully Boston will make this much more interesting.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS over Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Samardzija (0-0) (CHC) / Adam Wainwright (0-1) (STL)

The Cubs are off to an abysmal start this year, going just 1-5 SU as of Wednesday afternoon. I like Jeff Samardzija a lot, but even I can’t back him at this point. At just 27-years old, he’s entering his physical prime so it’ll be worth watching if he’s worth the Cubs’ faith moving forward. But there’s no point in backing the Cubs who are just not a convincing MLB betting pick right now.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are off to a thunderous 5-1 SU and RL start. Pitching, defense and strong bats have helped them cruise to victories over Miami, Milwaukee and Cincinnati and though Adam Wainwright didn’t have the greatest outing in his first go at the stripe, he’ll likely fix his issues against the lowly Cubs.

Wainwright was blistered for 4 hits and 3 runs in an eventual 0-6 shutout against the Brewers last week. He last just 5.2 innings. What should give you confidence is that St. Louis is second in the National League with 5.67 runs per game and first in defense with runners in scoring position. Even if the Cubs get guys on base against Wainwright, they won’t be able to get around the horn.

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Boston and New York Teams to Back

Eastern Conference Free Picks:

A quick rundown of how to gamble hockey: the spread is usually always -1.5 for the favorite and that means that your bet has to win by at least two goals. There’s the moneyline, which goes to the straight up victor and the TOTAL works the same as in all sports. It’s essentially identical to baseball betting from a numbers standpoint.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the series openers. Since we’re running this on Thursday (and submitting picks on Wednesday) I don’t know what happened between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia yet. However, that won’t stop me from leveraging a blind pick! Let’s get to the matchups with playoff seeds and the home team in caps.

TOP TWO SEEDS READY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT

#1 NEW YORK RANGERS over #8 Ottawa Senators
NY Rangers -1.5 +165 / -190 ML / O 5.0 -125
Ottawa Senators +1.5 -200 / +160 ML / U 5.0 +105

What a nice surprise that the Senators made the playoffs! Tag Erik Karlsson as the main catalyst for that. The 21 year old defenseman is a one man wrecking crew, but he’s going to have his hands full with a rough and tumble second line from New York. The Senators will be a lot more competitive in this series than people imagine with a great top line and solid defense, but the Rangers won’t let the first game get away from them.

My play would be to bet the Rangers moneyline and puckline separately as a hedge. If the Rangers clear the -1.5 handicap, you’re reaping rewards but they’ll win this game outright either way so you can cover yourself a bit there.

#2 BOSTON BRUINS over #7 Washington Capitals
Boston Bruins -1.5 +165 / -190 ML / O 5.0 -130
Washington Capitals +1.5 -200 / +160 / U 5.0 +110

The real value play here is the UNDER at +110. The Capitals are known to score, but their lack of a physically bruising play makes me very worried about this matchup for them. If you’re that adamant about Boston clearing the puckline, then go for it, but I’m sticking with the TOTAL and banking on Boston’s gameplan to knock the Capitals out of this series mentally with their own brand of black and blue hockey. And don’t bet against Tim Thomas at home. That’s just silly talk.

FRIDAY SEES FLORIDA HOST NEW JERSEY IN STUNNING MATCHUP

#3 FLORIDA PANTHERS over #6 New Jersey Devils
NJ Devils -1.5 +260 / -120 ML / O 5.0 -120
Florida Panthers +1.5 -320 / +100 ML / U 5.0 +100

Do people in Miami even know the Panthers made the playoffs let alone won their division? Who cares? The real nugget here is that Dale Tallon is the general manager in Florida, and he put together a Stanley Cup winning roster in Chicago. Florida lacks the pedigree to really hope for a breakout series win, but they have Jose Theodore in net and I think he’s worth backing in a playoff opener.

The Devils have been a good team, shifting to an offense heavy system since Martin Brodeur started dropping in production over the years. It’s paid off. They can play great two-way hockey. I still have the Devils winning the series, but I love the Panthers to make some noise as +100 underdogs in this game.

They’re a scrappy bunch of underdogs and are poised to give the Devils more fits than they’re prepared for. Don’t underestimate the Panthers moving forward, even though they haven’t made the playoffs since 2000 and are facing a perennial playoff contender in New Jersey.

BATTLE OF PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES SATURDAY

#4 PITTSBURGH PENGUINS over #5 Philadelphia Flyers
Wednesday night’s series opener will be a tell-all matchup for this Pro Hockey betting series. Philadelphia is known as a violent hockey team, but they’re missing everything that makes them a great defensive squad. No Pronger, no Meszaros and no James Van Riemsdyk. Ouch.

Their offense will be missing some teeth as well with Danny Briere out of the lineup. Briere is the sparkplug of this team’s playoff hopes, and without him, the Flyers just won’t have enough to keep up with a Penguins team that is full strength for the playoffs.

Track Wednesday night’s game, but if this series plays out like I expect, it’s going to be a five gamer with Pittsburgh getting out to – and protecting – a quick lead in the series.

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Nashville and St-Louis Looking for Breakout Performances

Western Conference Free Picks:

The 2012 pro hockey playoffs begin this season with Vancouver a heavy +200 favorite to make it all the way to the finals in Pro Hockey betting.  Vancouver brings a veteran squad, along with a well-rested goalie, to this year’s playoff party.  But they’re not the only team that online betting handicappers are looking to in the futures.

St. Louis is a well-backed +350 in the futures to take home the trophy in the Western Conference while Nashville at +525 and Detroit at +550 are also garnering support.  See below for free picks for Game 2 of each series as well as picks to win the Western Conference.

 

NHL – Western Conference

 

Game 2

 

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators

When:  April 12, 2012 at 7:30 pm EST

Predicted Odds:  Nashville -125, Total 5

This figures to be a hotly contested first round series between two very good teams.  Nashville GM David Poile made a big statement by luring back Alexander Radulov from Russia and adding defenseman Hal Gill and forwards Paul Gaustad and Andrei Kostitsyn, all for this playoff run.  Both teams bring great goalies to the series, but Nashville’s Pekka Rinne, who played in 73 games during the regular season, might win the Vezina trophy this season.  Rinne led the league with 43 victories.  Nashville’s power play is excellent at 21.6% while Detroit’s penalty kill is only average, ranked 18th in the NHL.  Although hockey odds handicappers like Detroit in Game 1, 51% to 49% for Nashville, my gut tells me that the Predators are ready to do a number on the Red Wings in Game 2.  Nashville is a tough place to play and the Red Wings weren’t exactly a stellar road team during the regular season.  31 of Detroit’s 48 total victories came at home.  I like Nashville.

Pick:  Nashville Predators

 

Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks

When:  April 13, 2012 at 10:00 pm EST

Predicted Odds:  Vancouver -170, Total 5

Vancouver isn’t going to just walk all over the Kings in this first round series.  The Canucks are deeper, they added Dale Weiss, Zack Kassian, David Booth, Samuel Pahlsson and Marc-Andre Gragnani from last season’s run, and Vancouver did produce the best overall record in the league this season, but the Kings are solid.  L.A.’s D allowed only 2.07 goals per season.  Their goal-tender, Jonathan Quick, is terrific.  Not only that, but the King’s 29th ranked offense scored 54 goals in 18 games from March to April, an average of 3 per game, meaning that they’ve found the net.  I believe that the Canucks will be a serious underlay in Game 2 of this series.  I’m going to back the dog.   

Pick:  Los Angeles Kings

 

San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues

When:  April 14, 2012 at 7:30 pm EST

Predicted Odds:  St. Louis -155, Total 5

Although San Jose is the more experienced team, St. Louis has the best defense in the league.  The Blues’ goalie tandem of Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot are shut down guys and St. Louis allows an awesome 26.7 shots on goal per game.  The Sharks, meanwhile, take 33.8 shots per game.  What will give in Game 2?  St. Louis’ D could dominate the Sharks.  Not only that, but St. Louis’ less than stellar offense, their top scorer, David Backers, is ranked 74th overall in the NHL scoring race, might get a boost in the power play since San Jose’s penalty kill is ranked 29th in the league.  59% of my peers are all over the Blues in Game 1.  I’ll be all over the Blues in Game 2.

Pick:  St. Louis Blues 

 

Chicago Blackhawks at Phoenix Coyotes

When:  April 14, 2012 at 10:00 pm EST

Predicted Odds:  Phoenix -120, Total 5

It looks like the Chicago Blackhawks have the Phoenix Coyotes over a barrel in this series.  Chicago is deeper and more talented.  Well, they’re deeper and more talented according to almost every sportswriter in Canada and the United States.  I prefer to look at stats in order to find gems on which to bet and even though 55% of sports betting handicappers are all over the Blackhawks in Game 1 of this series, the stats I’m looking at tell me that Phoenix is a solid bet in Game 2 of the series.  The Coyotes goalie, Mike Smith, allowed only 2 goals in Phoenix’s last 5 games.  Smith stopped 190 of 192 shots in those 5 games.  That’s ultra-impressive.  Not only that, but Chicago is ranked 26th in the league on the power play, meaning that they most likely won’t get to Smith even when they have an advantage, and 27th on the penalty kill, meaning that the Coyotes could find the net when they’ve got the advantage.  The real issue that Chicago will have in this series is that the 2010 Conn Smyth Trophy winner, Jonathan Toews, hasn’t played since Feb. 19th because of a concussion.  Sure, he’s cleared to play in the series, but he hasn’t hit the ice in a long time.

Pick:  Phoenix Coyotes

 

Western Conference Futures Pick

 

Odds to win Western Conference

Chicago Blackhawks              +800
Detroit Red Wings                  +550
Los Angeles Kings                  +800
Nashville Predators                 +525
Phoenix Coyotes                     +1500
San Jose Sharks                       +700
St. Louis Blues                        +350
Vancouver Canucks                +200

 

The odds are too low on the Vancouver Canucks for me to back them to win the Western Conference.  Vancouver is fantastic, no doubt, and they definitely can win, but the fact that the only squad going off at double-digit odds, Phoenix is at +1500, should clue hockey gamblers to the fact that the race to the Western Conference trophy is wide open.

 

Top Pick:  Nashville Predators +525

I’m surprised that Nashville isn’t the chalk to win the conference.  GM David Poile made big time moves for the playoff run and goaltender Pekka Rinne might be the best in the NHL.  Nashville is loaded and designed to win right now.  They only issue they might have is handling the pressure of winning right now, but I don’t see it happening, not with Rinne in goal and their depth up front.

 

Second Pick:  St. Louis Blues +350

The best defensive team in the league should have no trouble dispatching of San Jose.  They’re just too disciplined to make mistakes on the D side of things, but they will have to find offense some place.  Still, the odds aren’t bad on a team that might average giving up a goal a game during the entire playoffs this season to just win their conference.

 

Best Underdog Pick:  Los Angeles Kings +800

The Kings’ offense has gotten over the issues that plagued them earlier in the season and goal tender Jonathan Quick is as solid as there is in the net.  If the Kings’ offense continues to play well, then they could score a quick series victory over Vancouver, allowing them plenty of time to rest up for round 2. 

 

Good luck!

 

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Thiago Silva Faces Alexander Gustafsson in Main Event

UFC on Fuel TV:

The online sportsbook is offering MMA handicappers odds on the fights taking place in Stockholm, Sweden this Saturday, April 14.  Currently, the sportsbook is offering odds on four fights, but three should garner most bettors’ attention.

This is the first time that a mixed-martial arts event is taking place in Sweden.  The Internet has been abuzz with activity.  Everybody’s got an opinion on it.  Once again, the sport is showing that it has the ability to branch out beyond the usual MMA centers:  Brazil, Japan and the United States.

Keep reading for free picks on three of the fights taking place in Stockholm this Saturday.

 

UFC on Fuel TV 2

Where:  Ericsson Globe, Stockholm, Sweden

When:  April 14, 2012

 

Thiago Silva +190 vs. Alexander Gustafsson -240

Analysis:  The betting odds have to surprise everyone save for the most die-hard mixed martial arts fans.  “The Mauler” from Arbago, Sweden no doubt is going to have the hometown fans cheering for him from the opening bell.  But, is Alexander truly a -240 favorite versus the exceptional Thiago Silva?

The 6’ 5” Gustafsson has an excellent stand-up game and he’s very aggressive in the Octagon.  He’s also got one of the best takedown defenses in the business, “The Mauler” prevents 88% of takedown attempts, but I’m still iffy on his chances versus Silva.  Gustafsson’s victories over Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko were impressive. He forced a KO/TKO over Matyushenko with only 10 strikes and Hamill was outstruck 37 to 13. 

The problem for Thiago will be the fact that he hasn’t hit the mat competitively since 2011 and in that fight he destroyed the overrated Bandon Vera.  Still, Silva is offering almost 2 to 1 odds to beat a guy who prevents only 48% of the strikes against him.  If Thiago can pound Gustafsson’s body, he might be able to get “The Mauler” to the ground.  After that, Silva can use his superior grappling skills to force the hometown kid to tap out.

Pick:  Thiago Silva

Brian Stann -400 vs. Alessio Sakara +300

Analysis:  Oh, the betting odds makers got it right, that Stann should be the favorite, but -400 is hard to swallow.  Stann is the same guy who got outstruck by Chael Sonnen 28 to 2 in his last UFC bout.  Not only that, but Stann has a non-existent ground game.  Brian Stann is big, strong, super athletic and tough.  He’s the early 1990’s version of the dudes that went up against Royce Gracie before the Fertittas bought UFC for what amounts to Haiti’s GDP.  The fact that he’s a former U.S. Marine, and went to the Naval Academy, makes a huge difference, though.  I’ve written before about how Stann’s discipline and toughness will always keep him in fights against more skilled opponents.

Luckily for Stann, he doesn’t face a more skilled opponent on April 14.  Even though I want to make a case for Alessio Sakara, it’s tough for me to do so.  The man hasn’t fought anybody of note, not like Stann, and he got absolutely worked over by Chris Weidman, 45 strikes to 27, 5 takedowns and 4 passes to 0 and 0, in his last fight.  He shouldn’t make it to the second round versus Brian Stann.  The Marine should take care of business easily.

Betting wise, I’d refrain from putting money on Stann straight up.  Instead, I’d use Stann in a parlay wager. 

Pick:  Brian Stann

 

Denis Silver +135 vs. Diego Nunes -165

Analysis:  Silver was on his way out of UFC before upsetting Andre Winner, George Sotiropolous and Matt Wiman in three straight fights.  But Denis is coming off of a stunning loss to Donald Cerrone where Cerrone forced a submission in Round 1.  Hey, everybody gets caught, right?

Which Silver will show up in Stockholm?  Nobody really knows but it shouldn’t matter.  Silver faces one of the big time up and comers in the sport in Diego Nunes on Saturday.  Although “The Gun” lost to Kenny Florian in 2011, he did so in a decision, and the lost didn’t keep Nunes from moving in the right direction.  Deigo came back six months later in December to manhandle Manny Gamburyan.  Gamburyan is a decent fighter who took on some of the best at WEC, including losing to Jose Aldo (who doesn’t lose to Aldo) in 2010. 

Silver’s got a nice record against some top foes, but Nunes is looking to make a statement and get himself into a title fight against Aldo.  He’s going to have to pummel Silver on April 14 in order for Dana and the gang to bite.  I’m guessing that he’ll do it.

Pick:  Diego Nunes

 

Betting Strategy

Only one straight up bet makes sense, backing Thiago Silva at +190 to beat Alexander Gustafsson.  The rest of the $100 will go to parlays.

 

$40 to win Thiago Silva +190

 = $76 profit

 

$30 Parlay (To Cut Losses)

Alexander Gustafsson -240
Brian Stann -400
Diego Nunes -165

 = $55.32 profit

 

$30 Parlay (Money Bet)

Thiago Silva    +190
Brian Stann -400
Diego Nunes -165

 = $144.66 profit

 

Good luck!

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Detroit Team To Back at +650

Hockey Conference Futures

EASTERN CONFERENCE

New York Rangers (+200 to win Eastern Conference)
You have to do a wide range of things in the NHL playoffs to be successful: score lots of goal, prevent lots of goals, have a killer power play…these are all things you expect to hear. But toughness is the biggest scale tipper in the NHL playoff scene and the Rangers have it in truck loads. The biggest weakness in their game is their power play, which is the fourth worst in the league but with Henrik Lundqvist in net there isn’t much concern. And if you’re into cosmic voodoo (which 23% of my betting psyche is), then this seems like a good year to go all-in on New York, doesn’t it?

Boston Bruins (+500 to win Eastern Conference)
If you loved them last year, there are just as many reasons to love them this season. Handicpapers haven’t adored their inconsistency, but they’re ending the season on a strong high note after beating the Rangers 2-1. That put the Bruins at 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and they’re on as much of a momentum building streak as any team in the league right now. Nothing has changed from last season, except that Tyler Seguin has more experience. Plus they have a taste for blood and gold.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+190 to win Eastern Conference)
The worry with Pittsburgh is that they’re not as physical as they need to be in the playoffs, and since Sidney’s return they haven’t been that consistent going 6-5 SU in eleven games. They’ll find their legs soon enough, and after that beware if you bet against them especially with Evgeni Malkin playing far and away his best hockey ever.

The obvious reason to go against Pittsburgh is that Sidney is one brutal hit away from going back to the shelf indefinitely. These odds are very tight, but even without Sid The Kid, this team was absolutely formidable during big stretches of the season. There won’t be any buyer’s remorse here no matter what happens to Crosby, but those buyers should definitely beware.

Favorite Sleeper: Washington Capitals (+1600 to win Eastern Conference)
Listen, I know this isn’t a great bet, but you have to think that Ovechkin and company have to breakout of their playoff slump eventually, right? With a $100 flier thrown their way you could reap massive profits if they do. Still, there’s just as many reasons to bet on them (star studded roster) as there are to bet against them (star studded roster never performs in April).

The Rest of the East: Philadelphia +600, Buffalo +1600, New Jersey +1400, Ottawa +1800, Florida +1800

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Vancouver Canucks (+170 to win Western Conference)
You know who is hedging against this bet? The city of Vancouver! There’s a damn good reason that they have the best odds in the conference, and it has everything to do with the fact that they own the best record in the entire NHL. The main difference between last year and this year is that the Canucks have depth at goaltending. You can’t fault Roberto Luongo for being absolutely useless on the road in the Stanley Cup Finals last season in the Boston hosted games (ok maybe you can), but if he falters then the Nuckleheads have Corey Schneider to sit between the pipes.

Detroit Red Wings (+650 to win Western Conference)
There’s simply no possible way to write a column about “favorites to win the west” without mentioning the Red Wings. The Wings have lost their footing recently, going just 3-7 SU over their last ten games, but they also are likely candidates to have home ice heading in to the first couple rounds of the playoffs. It’s never a bad investment to bet on the Detroit Red Wings in NHL futures.

San Jose Sharks (+1200 to win Western Conference)
I’m basically putting them here because I wanted to remind you that this isn’t a bet to “appear in the Western Conference Finals and lose”. The Sharks are the ultimate non-closer in the NHL playoffs. Throwing your money at them this year is just a waste of time.

Favorite Sleeper: St. Louis Blues (+300 to win Western Conference)
If defense wins championships, the Blues should be your pick. With only 1.86 goals allowed through this season, the Blues are the unexpected NHL stalwarts on defense in the entire league ranking first in defense. It helps when you have a goalie like Brian Elliott in net and a slew of great two-way players coming back from the injured reserve.

All that being said, there’s a reason they’re my sleeper pick. They haven’t been this good or relevant for pretty much ten years. In fact, the last time they won a playoff series was ten seasons ago. Since then, they’ve made the playoffs three times and never survived the first round.

I doubt that the Blues themselves care that much about the past. They play like they believe in themselves, and if you do too then this is as worthy a bet as anyone else on the board.

The Rest of the West: Chicago +750, Nashville +700, Dallas +1800, Colorado +3500

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Time To Ride New York Again

Hoops Free Picks

Get ready for another great weekend of pro basketball betting! As is always the case, the home team is in CAPS and the game lines won’t be released till the night before/morning of game day.

Oklahoma City Thunder over INDIANA PACERS (Friday, April 6th)
The Pacers were my favorite under-the-radar betting pick in the NBA for the last few years (along with the strangely undervalued Milwaukee Bucks) but that has drastically changed. Thank Indiana’s sudden rise to definitive underdog status in the Eastern Conference because the handicappers aren’t falling asleep on their games anymore. Despite a stiff 7-3 SU record over their last 10 games which includes wins over Miami and Lob City, the Pacers are still just 5-5 ATS.

The truth is that the Pacers can keep games close and have good defensive matchups against Oklahoma City’s biggest weapons. Indiana severely struggles against teams like San Antonio and Orlando that have a size advantage…which happens to be OKC’s most glaring weakness.

Still Durant and Westbrook have been muscling past teams with a 7-3 SU streak of their own, along with a nice 6-4 ATS record. It’s not that much better than Indiana’s spread record, and the Pacers have home court advantage. I’d side with Indiana on a line of -5.5 or above against them. Anything less than that and you have to stick with the likely favored Thunder.

Houston Rockets over LOS ANGELES LAKERS (Saturday, April 7th)
Ramon Sessions has made a huge difference as the new point man for the Lakers, but that hasn’t made them a great team to bet on. In fact, it’s made them a horrible team to bet on. The Lakers are a league worst 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Yikes.

Houston hasn’t played that well in the past couple of weeks, going just 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS but they’re a matchup nightmare for the Lakers since they have size and perimeter scoring to match. They outdueled the Lakers 107-104 in late March, so expect them to be confident heading into this game. The Lakers always get bloated home lines so I’m inclined to stay with Houston no matter what the betting line is. The bigger the better, quite frankly.

NEW YORK KNICKS over Chicago Bulls (Sunday, April 8th)
No Jeremy Lin. No Derrick Rose. NBC must be thrilled that this is their marquee game for Sunday.

While Rose has been recovering and resting due to a strained groin, the Bulls have been excessively competitive and are finding alternate scoring options late in games. Unfortunately it’s not having the desired results and two big losses to Houston and OKC are showing that this team needs Rose back desperately.

The Knicks will be without Lin unless they make it to the Eastern Conference Championship, and if the playoffs started today the team they’d be facing is Chicago. They’re an admirable 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games but consistency isn’t really their bag of chips.

In all honesty, this has been a crazy season for the New York Knicks. They were great without Melo. They haven’t been bad without Amare. Lin came on like a raging bull and then cooled off drastically before having knee surgery. What I like is that through it all they’ve gone 17-11 ATS at home this year.

Chicago will be favored in this game, and if Rose plays then just ride shotgun with him. If he remains out, however, I really like the Knicks with a good point cushion against a Bulls team that is starting to wear down without the reigning MVP leading the way. The bookies are undervaluing New York, especially since J.R. Smith and Carmelo have proven they can win with the two of them doing the majority of the grunt work. It’s like Denver all over again for these two, and I’m not betting against it for now.

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New York, Detroit and Toronto to Start Strong

American League Opening Day

Baseball season is starting for many teams on Thursday, and if you’re like me then you love the daily grind of the season. It may not have the nauseating up swings and downward spirals of football or even basketball betting, but it’s a great money maker if you bank on starting pitching. Without much to go on stat wise, I’m doing my best here to give you the juicy tidbits you need to keep in mind when starting your MLB betting season.

Keep in mind that betting lines will go up the day of the game in the early morning, and most of these games are pegged for the early afternoon. The AL East is undoubtedly going to be a dog-eat-dog division, especially with a slightly expanded playoff format that gives even more reason for Tampa and Toronto to retain hope through August and September. Let’s get to the picks.

Home team in CAPS.

DETROIT TIGERS (0-0) over Boston Red Sox (0-0)
Thursday, April 5th — 1:00pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Lester vs. Verlander

The Boston Red Sox ended last season with one of the most brilliant meltdowns ever witnessed in the post season, and now they get to start the 2012 MLB betting season against the reigning American League MVP. Justin Verlander went a blistering 24-5 SU last season as a starting pitcher and made Detroit virtually untouchable each time he hit the mound.

With Prince Fielder bolstering an already productive offensive lineup, you almost have to bet on Detroit in this game. I mean, teams barely threatened Verlander last season and now he has even more scoring to back him up. At least, that’s the assumption most will make. Verlander was a gold mine last season. You couldn’t bet against him, and with Fielder helping with scoring duties it makes taking the Tigers that much easier.

I’m not in love with Lester, and while I like Boston a lot this year, they have to prove that all the bad luck and injuries that built up over 2011 are a thing of the past. Until that’s proven, I’m going with Detroit.

Toronto Blue Jays (0-0) over CLEVELAND INDIANS (0-0)
Thursday, April 5th — 1:00pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Romero vs. Masterson

If we know anything about Toronto, it’s that they always start the season very well. So bet away on the Blue Jays for April, especially when they have a matchup against Cleveland. Justin Masterson went just 12-10 SU last season with a 1.37 WHIP and a 3.92 ERA. That’s not good news against a team like Toronto, which has been steady offensively throughout the preseason (I know, I know) and have serious confidence in their young guns. In my mind, very few teams have done as well as Toronto in building a team from the ground up with great draft picks and smart trade acquisitions. The results are about to come to light.

Fourth year starter Ricky Romero is entering his prime, and while I’m not totally sold on him in big games, Cleveland just doesn’t have the man power to wreak havoc on him. Romero never pitched against Cleveland last season, but the Blue Jays’ batting order should protect him enough to pick up the opening day win.

New York Yankees (0-0) over TAMPA BAY RAYS (0-0)
Thursday, April 6th — 3:10pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Sabathia vs. Shields

This is a tough, tough matchup. On one hand, Sabathia is essentially a no-brainer pick for Baseball bettors when he’s at the stripe for the Yankees. But he went just 2-2 SU last season against the Rays. It doesn’t help that the Yankees are perennial slow starters, though they somewhat shed that tag last season.

Shields, though crazy reliable overall, went just 2-3 SU against New York last season and the Rays went an even 9-9 SU in 18 games overall against New York during 2011. It took them a while to find their rhythm overall, and they were fortunate enough to meet New York only in the second half (their first meeting came in the week leading up to the All-Star break).

The relevant and prevailing thought in this series is that New York will get off to a bad start. You know who got off to a much worse start in 2011? The Tampa Bay Rays! That’s why, even with Shields, I can’t really back Tampa in this game. He’s been vulnerable against New York and the Rays experience such roster turnover it takes some time for them to find out who they are. With the new playoff format looming and the toughest division battling against them all season, expect the Yankees to start strong and stay that way all year.

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Tiger Favorite to Win Masters

2012 Golf Masters Breakdown

The first major golf tournament of the year is this week and the online sportsbook is offering numerous wagers for the event.  Gamblers can put money on the winner of the 2012 Masters as well as make wagers on 72 Hole Group Betting, the winner’s nationality, the Top American, Top Asian and Top Rest of the World.

But, besides being a sort of golf betting aficionados paradise, the 2012 Masters is also chock full of drama.  Arguably the greatest golfer to ever live may finally be back having just won in a tune-up event two weekends ago.  He takes on a rival in the Masters who blew it at Augusta last year and will be seeking redemption.  Then, there’s the #1 ranked player in the world that is getting no respect in the sportsbook and a dude whose last name begins with “Mick” who always plays best in major golf tournaments.

Keep reading for odds, analysis and free picks for the 2012 Masters Tournament!

 

2012 Masters Tournament

Biggest Question – - Will El Tigre take home the Masters’ trophy?

Tiger Woods is the favorite in the sportsbook to win this week’s Masters at +400 after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational a couple of weeks ago.  In one respect, Tiger is offering overlaid odds.  The man, when he has been the chalk in majors, has often times never been less than a 5 to 2 favorite.  Therefore, getting +400 on the guy might make some online golf betting handicappers giddy with excitement. 

But Tiger has only 14 major title victories, and although that’s incredibly impressive, it might not be +400 impressive.  In other words, winning a major is very difficult to do and it’s definitely more difficult than beating Graeme McDowell by 5 strokes in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  Rory McIlory, who seemingly had the Masters trophy in his golf bag before blowing it last year, is going off at +550 while the #1 ranked player in the world, Luke Donald, is going off at +1500.  Lefty, that’s Phil Mickelson, is offering +1000 odds.

Tiger is definitely on his way back.  He looked very good winning the Arnold Palmer but his worst two rounds were Rounds 3 and 4.  He shot a 71 R3 and a 70 R4 after a 69 R1 and a 65 R2.  What it tells me is that El Tigre tired some during the weekend at the Arnold Palmer.  The weekend is when McIlroy, Donald, Mickelson, Rose, Mahan, Kaymer and Kuchar might bring out their big clubs.  If they do, will Tiger be able to hold them off?  Will he even have the lead?

The golf odds on Tiger to win aren’t bad, but they’re not good enough for me to bite.  I’m passing on backing El Tigre.

Spread Around Masters To Win Bets

Diversification in the To Win category for this week’s Masters is the way to go.  There are just too many things that can happen to put all of your dollars behind a guy like Woods, McIlroy or Mickelson.  Mick did win in 2010, but Charles Schwartzel won in 2011.  Angel Cabrera won in 2009.  Trevor Immelman won in 2008.

My strategy is going to be to back one of the favorites and then pick four dogs to put some dollars behind.  The favorite that I’m backing is Luke Donald at +1500.  Donald is coming off of a victory in the Transitions Championship where he shot a 67, 68, 70 and 66.  I like how he came back with that 66 in round 4 after shooting a 70 in round 3.  The ability to close out tournaments is the key to winning a major and Donald is an excellent closer.  He finished 6th in the WGC-Cadillac Championship in the event before the Transitions proving that he’s in top form.  At +1500, the #1 dude that swings a golf club in the world deserves serious consideration.  Check out my top long shot bets:

Hunter Mahan +2500 – - Hunter’s been en fuego this year with 2 victories and 3 total Top 10 finishes in only 7 events.  He finished 8th in the 2010 Masters Tournament.

Steve Stricker +4500 – - Stricker wasn’t horrible at the Shell Houston Open, finishing 36th, and a return to form could occur this week at Augusta where he finished 6th in 2009 and 11th last year.

Nick Watney +5000 – - Watney goes to Augusta off of a couple of very sub-par performances, but he’s averaging 284.8 yards off of the tee.  If he can get his putter going, then he’ll definitely repeat the 7th place finish he scored at the 2010 Masters and might have a shot at the title.

Graeme McDowell +5500 – - He was terrible in the Shell Houston Open, but he’s got a “bounce form” where he plays horribly and then plays exceptionally well.  He’s got a shot even if he and Augusta don’t seem to mesh because of that odd one bad tournament followed up by one good tournament form.

 

Other Masters Betting Categories

In the 72-hole Group Betting Category, the best bets are:

Group A:  Luke Donald +550

Group B:  Steve Stricker +500

Group C:  Nick Watney +350

Group D:  Graeme McDowell +450
Group E:  Louis “Shrek” Oosthuizen +300

Group F:  Trevor Immelman +350

 

In the Top American category, golf odds betting handicappers should consider placing a wager on either Mahan +1200 or Stricker at +2000.  Donald at +160 in the Top Englishman category constitutes overlaid odds.  When it comes to the tournament matchups, bettors should consider playing Lefty at +125 over Tiger and Donald at +150 over Tiger.  Donald over McIlroy at +125 isn’t a bad wager either.

In the Top European category, playing anybody outside of Rory McIlroy makes sense.  McIlroy is at +150.  Donald is at +500, McDowell and Martin Kaymer, the great, young German golfer, are both at +2000 odds.  I’d bet on of those three before backing Rory just because the Masters, like most major PGA Tournaments, is a difficult event to win.

 

Good luck!

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

    

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