St. Louis vs. Los Angeles (LAD) Weekend Series Preview

Pro Baseball Series of the Week:

While high hopes have all but been smashed for L.A.’s Baseball team that plays close to Mickey’s House, nothing but high hopes have sprung from the team that plays at Chavez Ravine.  That team will be without its best player this weekend when it takes on NL Central leading St. Louis in Pro Baseball betting.

With a record of 24 and 12, the best in Baseball, blue L.A. fans can be forgiven if they are none to happy with the loss of Matt Kemp, who was batting .359 and had already hit 12 home runs this season.  A trip to the DL for 15 days at this time of the season isn’t always a bad thing.  L.A. gave Kemp his vacation days just this past Monday.  The key will be whether or not the Boys in Blue can take down St. Louis without him in the line-up. 

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

3 – Game Series

When:  May 18 thru May 20

Without Kemp, Bobby Abreu is going to have to play virtually every day.  The 38-year-old Abreu has yet to hit a home run but only had 51 at bats this season.  Abreu is hitting .255 and has 9 RBIs.  The cast surrounding Abreu will no doubt help his confidence.  Andre Ethier is batting .308.  Tony Gwynn Jr. is batting .270.  Catcher A.J. Lewis is batting .322.

But losing Kemp, although not season threatening for the team, could be an issue this weekend.  St. Louis is producing 5.50 runs per game.  That ranks them third in Major League Baseball.  As a team, the Cardinals are batting .285.  That ranks them second in MLB.  The pitchers are ranked fourth in WHIP, 1.22, and twelfth in ERA, 3.53.

If the Dodgers are going to win the series this weekend versus St. Louis, their pitchers are going to have to step it up big time.  That could happen since the ERA for the team is ranked second at 3.20 and the WHIP puts them even with the Cardinals at 1.22.

 

Game 1

May 18, 10:10 pm ET

St. Louis Cardinals:  Lance Lynn, 6-1, 1.81 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Ted Lilly, 5-0, 2.11 ERA

Analysis:  The twenty-five year old Lynn is working on a Cy Young season.  Lynn suffered his first loss on May 13 to Atlanta when he gave up 3 runs off of 4 hits in 6 innings.  Without Kemp, it may be tough for the Dodgers to get to the exceptional pitcher.  Lynn has given up 6 hits only once this season and that was against Chicago when he pitched 8 innings.  St. Louis has managed Lynn brilliantly so far this year.  They seem to know exactly when the 6’ 5”, 250 lb, man from Ole Miss is slowing down.  They pulled him twice, out of seven starts, before the sixth inning.

Ted Lilly has been reborn into Dodger blue this season.  At 5 and 0, Lilly could be in the discussion for the Cy Young as well.  More importantly, Lilly knows many of the Cardinals’ batters.  Eight times TL has faced Matt Holliday and he’s held Holliday to only a single hit.  Rafael Furcal has 3 hits off of 14 at bats against Lilly.  Lance Berkman has 3 hits off of 31 at bats versus Lilly.

Familiarity could be the theme in this matchup on Friday night.  Lance Lynn has faced only one Dodger batter in his short career, Juan Rivera.  Even without Kemp, the Dodger batters might be able to get to Lynn, at least for a couple of runs.  That might be all that they need since Ted Lilly knows the St. Louis line-up so well. 

Although it’s tough to pick against the Cardinals, especially since Matt Kemp is out of the line-up for L.A., Ted Lilly’s presence on the mound should be enough for the Dodgers to take this one at home.  I’ll back the L.A. Dodgers on the moneyline.  

 
Pick:  L.A. Dodgers

 

Game 2

May 19, 10:10 pm ET

St. Louis Cardinals:  Jake Westbrook, 4-2, 2.35 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Clayton Kershaw, 3-1, 2.22 ERA

Analysis:  Westbrook has been decent so far this season, but the WHIP of 1.24 might be a concern.  It means that he’s allowing base runners.  Anything at 1.20 or less is where you want your top starters to be.

Clayton Kershaw’s WHIP is a .91.  Kershaw has had moments this season where it appears that he’s lost control, he gave up 5 runs to Colorado, in Colorado on May 2, and he gave up 4 runs to San Diego on April 15, but, for the most part, he’s pitched brilliantly.  CK hasn’t allowed a single run in 3 out of his 8 starts for the Dodgers this year.  His only loss, occurring at home, was a 1 to 2 game that he dropped to San Francisco on May 8.

Westbrook hasn’t been nearly as good.  The Cubs tagged him for 11 hits and 4 runs in 5 innings on May 14.  He could have a tough night in L.A. this Saturday.  The one saving grace for the Cardinals, though, is the fact that Matt Holliday has batted .333, 6 out of 18, against Kershaw during his career.  Allen Craig, who is batting .404, is .500 against Kershaw, 4 out of 8, and both David Frease and Lance Berkman are batting .250 against the Dodgers’ top pitcher.

The odds are going to be sweet on the Cardinals in this game and, although I have plenty of respect for Clayton K., I can’t pass up what should be exceptional odds.  Without Kemp, Westbrook might be able to lower that WHIP.  That’s what I’ll be hoping for, anyhow.

I’m backing the St. Louis Cardinals to upset the L.A. Dodgers on Saturday night.

Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals

 

Game 3

May 20, 8:00 pm ET

TV:  ESPN

St. Louis Cardinals:  Kyle Lohse, 5-1, 2.70 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Chad Billingsley, 2-2, 3.24 ERA

Analysis:  If Billingsley does start on Sunday night against St. Louis, Baseball handicappers should definitely consider betting against the 6-year veteran.  Billingsley hasn’t been as good this season as one would expect.  He’s not a bad pitcher, but he might look like one against the Cardinals on May 20.

Matt Holliday has sent 3 balls into the stands against Billingsley in 23 at bats.  Holliday has batted .348 against CB.  As a team, the Cardinals have batted .244 against Billingsley with Yadier Molina going 5 out of 14 for a .357 average.

Lohse’s shown decent control this season.  His WHIP of 1.06 is very good and the Cardinals’ batters have come through for him more than once so far this year.  Lohse gave up 5 runs off of 9 hits against the Cubs, for instance, on May 15, but the Cardinals’ batters scored 7 runs to hand Kyle yet another victory.

Lohse has given up 5 runs in two out of the Cardinals’ last three games, but the way that St. Louis manages their pitchers, and the fact that the Cardinals’ batting line-up is stellar versus Billingsley makes me believe that Lohse should have a good night.

I’m going with St. Louis again to take home a second game in this three game weekend series.

Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals      
     

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Miami, Los Angeles (LAC) Back Themselves into a Corner

Untitled Document

Everyone’s Cheering For Pacers Over Heat Now
It was one thing when the hyperbole surrounding the Pacers-Heat matchup boiled over and we had to read a bunch of ballyhoo about how the upstarts from Indiana were going to somehow dethrone the crownless kings of Miami in Pro Basketball betting. When Bosh went out, that hyperbole seemed to gain some credibility by accident. After the Game 2 victory by the Pacers, and Dwyane Wade’s continued douchebaggery, the scales are officially even in this series.

Wade thought he was fouled during a fast break and instead of just shutting his mouth and playing through, he glared at the ref and then decided to smash Pacers guard Darren Collison from behind shortly afterwards. For the record, Collison was completely defenseless and couldn’t have seen Wade coming. I’m shocked that Wade wasn’t suspended (Note to all you haters, the league can definitely afford having Wade suspended for one game. Stop saying that they can’t).

That kind of crap has a nasty habit of pushing an opponent in to an extra gear, and with the Pacers returning to the comforts of home, this series is going to be a nail biter. Why else would the oddsmakers post a line of Miami -1.0 on this game? They fear the unruly and deep Pacers as much as the Heat do right now.

Indiana poses the problem that Miami fears the most: incredible depth. It says something when a team boasting two of the greatest players ever gets bested by a squad that doesn’t have anyone reach twenty points. David West led Indiana with a double-double of 16 points and 10 boards, while three other players scored in double digits.

The Heat will always get the requisite 50-points out of their LBJ-Wade combo. Sometimes it’s more and sometimes it’s less, but without Bosh they don’t have that extra gear. On Tuesday night’s effort, no other Heat player scored more than 5 points. Criticize Bosh all you want, but he’s someone that they miss dearly on the scoreboard and on the court in general.

With Bosh out, LeBron has to play more power-forward than he’s used to. Don’t get me wrong – he’s great wherever he plays, but he’s most dangerous as a guard or as an unstoppable wing player. Miami needs LeBron out on the perimeter where he stretches defenses, but without Bosh (who rebounds pretty well for a wussy), the Heat need LeBron to rebound more than he would like. If James grabs 15 boards, he’s a lot less effective than when he’s dishing out 15 assists.

Most of the long term metrics measure against the Pacers. They’re just 15-18 ATS at home this season, and while they went 2-0 ATS against Orlando (sans Dwight Howard) in their own house, that doesn’t say much. However, with the extra vitriol from Wade’s antics and the momentum in hand, Indiana has the depth and rebounding prowess to give Miami even more frustrations in this series.

Furious Free Pick: Indiana Pacers +1.0 over Miami

Spurs Still Have Tricks Up Their Sleeves Against Clippers
Anybody else think that Tim Duncan wants a fifth ring? After dropping 26 points and hauling down 10 rebounds in the Spurs’ 15th consecutive victory, it’s become blatantly clear that San Antonio is the team to beat in the West. If Blake Griffin was fully healthy, he may have played better. But that’s sheer speculation.

Blake is still young, and so is the rest of his team. Aside from Derrick Rose, there is probably no point guard in the game more aptly suited for keeping up with Chris Paul than Tony Parker. Paul was limited to just 6 points though he chipped in 10 helpers.

The thing about betting on this game is that it’s as much about veterans versus youth as it is about the numbers. Sure, it’s easy to say that Manu, Duncan and Tony have “been here before”, but that doesn’t mean Griffin and Paul don’t want to win just as badly.

What’s probably most telling about Game 2 is that San Antonio is an unreal 24-8-1 ATS at home. They’re also one of the hottest betting teams in the playoffs with a 8-1-1 ATS record over their last 10 games. Money sounds safe with Pop right?

Well I’m not so sure. If we know anything about the Clippers with Paul, it’s that they are resilient. You can probably excuse their Game 1 lapse in effort due to fatigue over going seven games against a tough, physical Memphis team. The Clippers can chew away at big leads with deft three point shooting and though San Antonio probably walks out of Game 2 with a win, that line is just way too big for my liking.

The Clippers know what they’re up against now. They won’t come into Game 2 as flat as they were on Tuesday night. At least, that’s what I’m banking on. The number on this game is just too big to warrant a wager on the steady Spurs.

Furious Free Pick: L.A. Clippers +11.0 cover against San Antonio

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Los Angeles Looking Unbeatable in Semis

Pro Hockey Playoffs:

There’s really no stopping Los Angeles in Pro Hockey betting.  L.A. drubbed Phoenix in the second game of their conference final series 4 to 0 on Tuesday night to take a 2 to 0 game lead in the series.  Los Angeles now returns home where they have a decent chance of going up 3 to 0 and possibly completing a sweep against the team from the Valley of the Sun.

For New York, their 3 to 0 Game 1 victory over rival New Jersey was all about defense.  NY’s goalie, Henrick Lundqvist, was good for 21 saves and New York outshot New Jersey 28 to 21.  They shut down four New Jersey power play opportunities and won 36 face-offs to New Jersey’s 25.  After Game 2 on their home ice, New York faces New Jersey on the road in Game 3.  Will they be as effective defensively?

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

NHL

Game 3
Phoenix Coyotes +1.5 (-175) at Los Angeles Kings -1.5 (+155)

When:  May 17, 2012 at 9:00 pm EST

TV:  NBC Sports Network

Unless goaltender Jonathan Quick gets hurt from now until Thursday night, the L.A. Kings should have no trouble blanking the Phoenix Coyotes again.  Sure, the Coyotes could sneak one buy Quick, but one is all that they’re likely to get.

The Kings have outscored their opponents 35 to 16 during these playoffs.  They are now up 8 to 2 in goals scored against Phoenix.  L.A. is an incredible 10 and 1 in the 11 games that they’ve played during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  They’ve been as dominant as any hockey team that I’ve seen in a long time. Unless Phoenix comes up with something new, and it’s doubtful that they will, the Kings should roll in Game 3.

Phoenix, besides being overmatched in this series, is simply tired.  The Coyotes played a brutal 6 games against the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round, where 5 out of the 6 games went into overtime.  Then they had to play 5 games versus Nashville.  The Predators laid down for Phoenix in that series, but, still, the Coyotes had 11 playoff games under their belts before taking on the terrific Kings in Game 1 of this series.  They can be forgiven for their play considering that Phoenix was the longest shot on the board, at 15 to 1, to win the Western Conference, but the facts can’t be denied, L.A. is the better team in this series.

Pick:  Los Angeles Kings

 

New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils

When:  May 19, 2012 at 1:00 pm EST

TV:  NBC

The Rangers offense is, unlike the Kings’ O right now, just okay.  NY only shoots 28.5 times a game, twentieth in the NHL, and they score only 2.7 goals per game, eleventh in the NHL.  New Jersey’s offense isn’t much better, 2.6 goals per game, fifteenth in the NHL, with 27.5 shots on goal, twenty-seventh in the NHL.

The difference between the two teams is that the Rangers bring a trap style, shot blocking, defense to the party that has been ultra-effective during these playoffs.  Only one other team, the Washington Capitals, have blocked more shots than New York, and the Rangers beat Washington in a tough 7 games series in the second round.

New Jersey is a very good team, though, and going back home could give them something to play for if NYR goes up 2 to 0 on them in this series after Game 2 on Wednesday night.  If the Devils find a way to beat the Rangers in Game 2, New York lost Game 2 versus both Ottawa in the first round and Philadelphia in the second round, New York might be the team to back in Game 3.

The New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils are both very good teams.  Unlike the L.A. Kings and Phoenix Coyotes series, where the Kings are obviously the better squad, the Rangers and Devils are pretty much even across the board.  It’s difficult to see where either team has an edge and that should make for a very closely contested series. 

Hockey handicappers should consider betting on the team that loses Game 2 to win Game 3.  Neither team is going to lay down in any game in this series, the third goal in the Rangers 3 to 0 first game victory came with an open net for instance.

Watch Game 2 and think about backing the loser to come back strong in Game 3.

Pick:  Loser of Game 2

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Bayern Munich Battles Chelsea as Fave in Germany on Saturday

Champions League Final:

Bayern Munich battles Chelsea as the favorite in Germany this Saturday for the Champions League title.  This is the second year in a row that the Champions League Final will take place on a Saturday.  The game is scheduled for 2:45 pm ET and the actual date of the game is May 19.

Although there is plenty to discuss regarding Bayern Munich versus Chelsea, it’s impossible to get to it without first writing about the unbelievable finish in the 2012 English Premier League Championship in Soccer betting.  Manchester City scored two goals in stoppage time to take out QPR and to win its first title since 1968.  The beauty of the title win for Manchester City fans is that cross-town rival Manchester United, the most valuable sports team in the world, a dynasty under Sir Alex Ferguson’s amazing leadership, arguably the most beloved, and most hated, of all soccer teams, is the squad that suffered the most.

Manchester City needed to tie QPR at 2-2 in order to level them with Man U, but it was the final goal in the 94th minute off the foot of Sergio Aguero, the son of Argentine legend Diego Maradona, that brought the Premier League Championship to Man City.  The victory goes beyond the fact that it brought Manchester City its first title since 1968.  Manchester City, a team that had suffered untold financial issues under the ownership of Thaksin Shinawatra, the disgraced former prime minister of Thailand who had bought the team under the guise that Man City was the Thai people’s team, a team that had become the ugly step-child in a city that lived and breathed soccer, was taking home a championship.

It was as if the Clippers had beaten the Lakers for the NBA Western Conference Championship after the Lakers had won the title the year before.  The big difference is that Manchester City’s victory means ten times more to their fans than a Clippers’ victory would mean to their fans. This was the New Orleans Saints winning the Super Bowl after Katrina.  It was Villanova over Georgetown. 

Get ready Manchester City, and Man U., fans.  According to many soccer analysts, this is only the beginning for Manchester’s “JV Team”.  A dynasty may have been born in the 2012 English Premier League Championship and it’s not a dynasty born from the team listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

On to the Champions League title game this Saturday!

 

Champions League Title:   Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea

When:  May 19, 2:45 pm ET

TV:  FOX

Betting Odds

Moneyline:  Bayern Munich -125, Chelsea +325

Draw:  +270

Total:  Over 2 -105, Under 2 -115

As strange as it looks, Bayern Munich really is the favorite over Chelsea this Saturday and Chelsea actually agrees.  Just ask Peter Cech, Chelsea’s goalkeeper.  Or, ask Michael Ballack who used to play for Bayern but now wears Chelsea blue.  Both are convinced that Bayern Munich should be the favorite going into Saturday’s match.  The main reason for Bayern Munich’s favoritism is obvious.  The Champions League Final will be played at Allianz Arena.  Not only is Allianz Arena in Munich but its Bayern’s home.  Chelsea is the away team for the Champions League final.

But that’s not the only reason that Bayern Munich is favored over Chelsea.  The Blues will already be without John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Ramires and Raul Meireles.  There’s a chance that they could be without David Luiz, Gary Cahill and Florent Maluda.  Without those three, Di Matteo, the man in charge, admits that he will have to fill his bench with “youngsters”.  Luiz and Cahill did train on Tuesday to help Chelsea’s cause, but will it be enough for the Blues to get past the home team?

It won’t.  If Chelsea was playing the L.A. Galaxy in the Home Depot Center, they’d have a tough time without Terry and Ramires.  Unfortunately for the Blues, Bayern Munich is arguably the best team in the Champions League.  Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is like Jonathan Quick except he’s kicking and batting away soccer balls instead of pucks.  Phillip Lahm is awesome.  Rafhina is a bad ass.  Thomas Mueller adds experience.  Mario Gomez is an amazing striker.  He’s got 12 goals.  Franck Ribery is, well, another bad ass.  Captain Arjen Robben, unlike Terry, will be on the pitch.

True, Dortmund drubbed Bayern Munich 5 to 2 just last Saturday on May 12 in the DBF Pokal Final, but, if anything, the loss should fire up Bayern this Saturday.  The team’s record is an incredible 11-1-2.

Without four players, one your captain, and with the possibility of being without up to three more players, Chelsea doesn’t have much of a shot in this final.  My money is going to be on Bayern Munich at -125 to beat Chelsea in this Saturday’s Champions League Final.

Pick:  Bayern Munich -125    

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Los Angeles (LAA) vs. Texas Weekend Series Preview

Series of the Week:

Things have been looking up in the Los Angeles sports scene.  Los Angeles’ hockey team is a series away from making it to the Finals.  Both professional basketball teams are playing well, getting close to moving to the second round of the playoffs, and that often maligned L.A. baseball team found a bit of “magic” in a new ownership group. The winning L.A. baseball team is tied for the best record in the NL at 19 and 11. They are four games ahead of their nearest competitor, rival San Francisco, and are 11 and 3 at home.

That’s in stark contrast to Los Angeles’ other baseball team.  Starting the season as a +350 favorite to win the championship, L.A.’s baseball team that plays next door to Mickey and Donald hasn’t fared all that well.  At 13 and 18, they’re 7.5 games away from division leading Texas. They play that division leader in a three game series this weekend in Pro Baseball betting.

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

3 – Game Series

When:  May 11 thru May 13

What’s wrong with the Los Angeles Angels?  Most will say it’s Albert Pujols’ fault.  Not really.  Sure, Albert could be playing better.  After all, a 1.90 batting average with a single home run and 9 RBIs isn’t what the Angels had in mind when they offered him that gargantuan contract during the off-season.  But, it’s difficult to blame a team’s overall issues on a single batter.

The Angels aren’t playing all that well as a team.  They’re ranked seventeenth in overall team batting average, .244, and twenty-seventh in overall on base percentage, .295.  Their pitching has been okay, thirteenth in overall ERA, 3.62, and fifth in overall WHIP, a fantastic 1.19.  If the pitching has been decent, then why have the Angels lost so many games?  The bull-pen has been awful.

Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they play arguably the top team in MLB this season, the Texas Rangers, on the road.  Texas has been magnificent.  Josh Hamilton just lit up the scoreboard on Tuesday night with four, that’s right, four 2-run dingers.  The pitching has been fantastic:  ranked fifth in ERA, ranked third in WHIP, ranked ninth in quality starts and ranked ninth in strike-outs with 232.  The offense is ranked first in runs per game, 5.67, first in overall batting average, .293, second in on base percentage, .352, and first in slugging percentage, .480.

Do the Angels stand a chance this weekend? 

 

Game 1

May 11, 8:05 pm ET

TV:  MLB Network

Los Angeles Angels:  C.J. Wilson, 4-2, 2.61 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Yu Darvish, 4-1, 2.54 ERA

Analysis:  C.J. Wilson has thrown well this season.  His WHIP is tremendous at 1.04 and the ERA is decent.  The problem for C.J. is that, because the Angels’ bull-pen is atrocious, he has to put in at least 7 to 8 innings each time he steps onto the mound.  That’s definitely going to add insult to injury to the Angels’ rotation later this summer when Wilson’s arm starts to tire.  On Friday night, C.J. should probably be okay.  He will have had six days to rest and he should know the batters on the Rangers’ squad since he threw for Texas in 2011.  Then again, those batters might know C.J. as well. 

Yu Darvish has been dynamite so far this season.  True, his WHIP isn’t all that great at 1.44 but he gets himself out of trouble by striking out batters.  Darvish has struck out 44 guys in only 39 innings pitched.  That’s awesome.  He is coming off of his first loss of the season, versus Cleveland on the road, after giving up 4 runs, 3 earned, off of 6 hits in 6 innings, but the Indians are ranked fourth in on base percentage.

Darvish should have no trouble picking apart that anemic Angels’ batting line-up at home.  I think he racks up at least 8 strike-outs and probably as many as 11 in this game.     

Pick:  Texas Rangers

Game 2

May 12, 1:05 pm ET

 

Los Angeles Angels:  Jerome Williams, 3-1, 3.38 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Matt Harrison, 4-2, 5.11 ERA

Analysis:  The Angels will be looking to steal a game by matching Williams against Harrison on Saturday.  Williams has been spectacular in his 3 victories, but those starts came against Baltimore, Minnesota and Toronto.  Versus the Yankees on April 15, Williams lasted only 2.2 innings, giving up 5 runs off of 5 hits.  Versus Tampa Bay on April 26, Williams pitched well, giving up only 2 runs off of 5 hits in 7 innings of work.  The Angels couldn’t seal the deal, however, and dropped the game 3 to 4.

Matt Harrison’s bad ERA is due to only two games.  Against Tampa Bay on April 27, Harrison gave up 6 earned runs off of 14 hits in 5 innings.  Then, in his very next start, Harrison bombed again with an 8 earned run, 8 hit allowing performance against Toronto in only 3 innings.  Harrison has allowed a home run in each of his last 4 starts.  Maybe, Pujols will get his second dinger on Saturday.

This is a tough call since it doesn’t look like Harrison has regained the control that he so obviously lost in the two starts versus Tampa and Toronto.  If he hasn’t, the Angels could sneak by a victory, but that’s doubtful.  Harrison has been pitching well, but he’ll have to leave the game at some point, and at that point, the Rangers figure to punish the Angels’ middle relief.  If Harrison can keep it close, then Texas should win the second game in this series.

Pick:  Texas Rangers

Game 3

May 13, 8:00 pm ET

TV:  ESPN

Los Angeles Angels:  Jered Weaver, 5-0, 1.60 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Neftali Feliz, 1-1, 3.81 ERA

Analysis:  Jered Weaver has been Mr. Automatic for the Angels this season.  The 5 and 0 record is legit and Weaver has no problem going 8 innings or more.  He threw for 8 against Kansas City on April 6, and he threw for 9 against Baltimore on April 21 and 9 against Minnesota on May 2.  He no-hit the Twins in that May 2 game.

Neftali Feliz is a decent pitcher, but he’s being thrown to the wolves in this matchup.  Feliz could very well hold the Angels to only 3 runs in this game.  Unfortunately for him, and the Rangers, it’s doubtful that Weaver doesn’t throw for at least 8 innings and possibly a complete game.  Feliz pitched on May 8, meaning that if he does get the nod, it will have been only 5 days between starts.  A guy like Neftali sure could use that extra day of rest.

Weaver is going to be a big favorite, and he should, but if any team can break the streak, it’s Texas.  Jered is going to slow down at some point this season.  On the road against the best team in baseball might lead to that point.

I’ll back the likely home dog Rangers to upset the L.A. Angels and to complete the sweep on Sunday night.

Pick:  Texas Rangers      
     

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Chicago, Atlanta and Denver on the Brink of Elimination

Hoops Game 6 Action

This was supposed to be a second round playoff preview, but since we don’t have any matchups set for the semis in either conference here’s a rundown of the Thursday Game 6’s which I expect to put a close on the quarterfinals in NBA playoff betting. As usual, home team in caps. As I write this on a Wednesday morning, betting lines aren’t posted yet but that doesn’t matter. All the numbers will be tight on these games.

THURSDAY GAME 6 PLAYOFF PICKS

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS over Chicago Bulls
The Bulls without Rose lack the thorns to really keep this up in the gauntlet of NBA playoff betting. I am generally one of those people that doesn’t mind that Carlos Boozer has made the money he has, because he shows up sometimes in games like Tuesday night’s brutal Game 5. Boozer notched 19 points and 13 rebounds to push his team to victory.

But he wasn’t the catalyst and never really is. As an overpaid third banana, Boozer is a fair compliment to Rose but without him he’s horribly unreliable. Without Noah and Rose, Game 5 should have been it for the Bulls and I doubt they have anything left in the tank to pull off another “upset” in Game 6.

I most certainly don’t foresee the Sixers throwing up another lame duck like they did on Tuesday. The Sixers are a solid bet in these playoffs. They’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 quarterfinals games. With a deep roster that can match Chicago’s bench, and out perform it, I expect the Sixers to roll through to the second round where a very quick squash from Miami probably awaits them.

BOSTON CELTICS over Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has been chastised by heaps of fans for not having the requisite heart that Boston perennially shows in the playoffs. Well, it was hard to measure just how good they were without their true starting five on the court. That’s why Al Horford’s ubiquitous return from injury in Game 5 was so compelling.

Horford led the Hawks with 19 points and 10 rebounds while shutting down the dynamic Rondo on the final possession of the game in a one-on-one defensive matchup. A lot has been said about Josh Smith’s erratic play and Joe Johnson’s contract, but Horford is the real center of this team (despite not actually being a center). His mere presence allowed the Hawks’ starters to all post double-digits in points while two of them (Horford and Smith) picked up double-doubles.

The Hawks could post a big problem for the Celtics with Horford because he restores balance to the team and Jeff Teague is one of those players that acts like he’s a legend. It’s scary because sometimes he produces in big moments, like in Game 5 which should technically go a long way in making this a bet on game for the Hawks who are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 10-4 ATS and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 quarterfinals games.

So why leverage a bet on Boston? Well for one, they’re 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight up defeat, and are an unshakeable 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games when playing a team with a bad road record. They’re also 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home stands overall.

I will say it again and again: the Hawks are one veteran center (Chris Kaman, anyone?) from becoming an absolute tour-de-force. Until they convince themselves that Horford is actually a power-forward and Josh Smith is a great swingman, they’re fooling themselves.

Boston doesn’t have that identity crisis. They know who they are, especially when playing at home.

L.A. Lakers over DENVER NUGGETS
If you’re banking on Denver upsetting the Lakers again like they did in Game 5, then you’re pretty much hoping JaValle McGee shows a modicum of consistency in his production. Good luck with that. McGee came off the bench and wowed the Lakers crowd with 21-points, most of which came off some sweet dunks. He’s averaged 10.4 points per game in this series, with stat lines of 21, 8, 16, 5 and 2 points in those games. So yeah, I’m not exactly envisioning McGee recreating his stunning Game 5 play.

What I’m also not counting on is Andrew Bynum vanishing in the fourth quarter and Pau Gasol being silenced by Kenneth Faried for a full game. Kobe Bryant said it best when he said that he can’t bail the Lakers out of games like that. He needs the rest of his team to step up, and that they will after the spanking Denver gave them at home.

If you want some juicy trends for this game, then here they are. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS following a straight up loss and 5-1 ATS after losing against the betting line. While the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, this is a closeout game for the aging Lakers who need to put this series away so they can get to business and rally a big one against Oklahoma City. Bet on that being the case Thursday night when they put the deep Denver Nuggets into an even deeper sleep.

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Los Angeles Favorite to Win the Western Conference

Western Conference Futures

It’s time for a Hockey Futures update now that Los Angeles and Phoenix, just a few short weeks ago the two biggest underdogs in the Sportsbook to win the hockey championship, have both ascended to the Western Conference Finals.  L.A. and Phoenix got to where they are by taking on favored teams and smacking those favored teams in their mouths.

Los Angeles faced +150 Western Conference favorite Vancouver in the first round.  All Los Angeles did was beat Vancouver 4 games to 1.  Then, in the second round, Los Angeles took on second choice St. Louis.  L.A.’s rival was at +550 to win the Western Conference when the playoffs started.  St. Louis didn’t win a single game in the series, losing 0 to 4 to L.A. and being outscored 15 to 6.

Phoenix was a bigger dog than L.A.  Many hockey handicappers gave Los Angeles the benefit of the doubt.  L.A. was a +800 underdog to win the Western Conference when the playoffs started.  Phoenix was a +1500 underdog to make it all the way to the Finals.  The Coyotes beat Chicago, as a big underdog, 4 games to 2.  5 out of the 6 games in the series went into overtime and Phoenix won 3 out of the 5 OT games.  Phoenix had no trouble in their second round matchup versus Nashville.  They beat Nashville 4 games to 1 and outscored the highly-regarded Predators 12 to 9.

Now, the Los Angeles Kings and Phoenix Coyotes are two of the favorites to win the NHL Stanley Cup.

 

NHL Stanley Cup Futures

Playoff Series Prices

Los Angeles Kings                  -165
Phoenix Coyotes                     +135

Analysis:  The Coyotes defense is the reason that they are only a series away from making it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  Phoenix allowed Nashville to score only 3 goals in the final 3 games of that series. They dominated the Predators usually terrific offense; the Preds were ranked eighth in goals scored per game at close to 3.

The Coyotes’ offense wasn’t that great in the series, however.  Phoenix scored only 3 goals in the final 3 games.  They scored 9 total goals in the first two games of the series and scored a total of 17 goals against the Chicago Blackhawks in their first round series.  The lack of goal production versus Nashville could be a sign that Phoenix is slowing down.  After all, the Coyotes have already played 6 overtime games during these playoffs.

Los Angeles has turned into the most complete team in the National Hockey League.  It’s incredible that the Kings have won 17 out of their last 23 total games.  They dominated Stanley Cup favorite Vancouver by running out to a 3 game to 0 series lead in the first round before obliterating St. Louis’s awesome defense, 15 goals to 6, in 4 straight games in round 2.  The performance versus the Blues was very telling as L.A. found a way to get pucks past the number one ranked defense in the NHL.  St. Louis allowed less than two goals per game on average.  In the four victories versus the Blues, the Kings scored an average of 3.75 goals per contest.

The Kings’ goaltender, Jonathan Quick, has been absolutely brilliant.  He’s an amazing force and, with the Kings’ offense playing so well, it’s going to be hard for hockey handicappers to make a case for the Coyotes to win this series.  The Kings should dominate with Quick keeping Phoenix’s offense from pushing the puck past him, and L.A.’s offense finding a way to get a few pucks past the Coyotes’ stellar goaltender, Mike Smith.

L.A. might not sweep Phoenix the way that they swept the Blues in the second-round,  The Coyotes’ heart is unquestioned, but they should find a way to win four games versus Phoenix and to march into the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Los Angeles Kings will go from zeroes, the eighth seeded team in the West, to heroes, Stanley Cup Finals’ favorites by winning their Western Conference Finals Series against the Phoenix Coyotes.

 

Pick:  Los Angeles Kings

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No Playing Around – Back Golf Boys at the Players

The Players Championship

Did you know that this video [Golf Boys] existed? I’ll have more on that in a second.

The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is usually the event where you can almost definitely expect the unexpected. The “fifth” major on the PGA Tour will draw the best of the best, especially with that monster purse up for grabs for the world class field. There’s a lucrative pool of $9.5 million available, with $1.71 million going to the winner.

That’s a lot of cheddar for a day on the links.

So when you hit the golf sportsbook to throw some money at The Players Championship Futures, you’re going to see a lot of names. I’m not kidding. Everyone comes to this event for a slice of pie and the pressure usually kills a few of the big names. There has to be some sense in all this madness right?

Well, not really. The winners of the past five Players Championships have included K.J. Choi, Tim Clark, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Phil Mickelson. That’s five golfers from five different countries. In fact, players from the same country haven’t won the Players since 2000-2001 when Americans Hal Sutton and Tiger Woods did so.

That means that the best bet on the board is everyone’s favorite little ugly Irishman, Rory McIlroy! And as the favorite posting +900 odds, he isn’t exactly a terrible value bet either. The problem with McIlroy is that – I’m going to put this bluntly – he hasn’t really done much since his amazing U.S. Open victory in 2011. He crumbled at The Open. He hasn’t even placed in the top-25 in the last two majors (the 2012 Masters and 2011 PGA Championship). That 17th hole is just waiting to demolish McIlroy who hasn’t tested it all that much with hundreds of people watching him since he skipped the tournament in 2011.

The odds for the Players Championship are always stretched out because the field is so talented. Last year, 48 of the top-50 golfers in the world entered the tournament. Kind of makes you miss the days of  “Tiger vs. The Field” doesn’t it?

With that being said, there’s no such thing as a smart bet in the Players Championship. Sure you have “better” bets than others, but you really just don’t know how players are going to handle the rigors of such a grueling course with so much pressure and competition.

As I always do, I’m going to pump up Hunter Mahan like usual since I started betting on him inexplicably in 2008. I have lost tons of money on Hunter over the years and he’s my type of “go big or go home” golfer. Either he’s doing pretty well at the majors, or he’s being sent home early. He missed the cut in 3 of last year’s majors before finishing 19th at the PGA Championship. He tied for 12th at this year’s Masters.

Hunter is on a bit of a tear this season, winning two tournaments thus far on tour which include a matchplay win over McIlroy at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships. He is the highest ranking American on tour right now at 4th on the Official World Golf Ranking and is posting +2500 odds because he’s generally an afterthought at major events like The Players Championship.

Fellow Yankees, Tiger Woods (+2500) and Phil Mickelson (+1800), will be there as well and are worth an emotional flier bet if you’re into that kind of thing. I would use the typical “Tiger’s gotta break through one of these tournaments” argument but that is so overplayed at this point. Tiger hasn’t won this event since 2001.

In a generation filled with Youtube sensations, The Golf Boys should probably be getting some attention. They’re famous on Youtube for all the awesome reasons that you can view in the link at the top of the article. The quartet includes the aforementioned Mahan along with Ben Crane (+5500), Bubba Watson (not posted) and Rickie Fowler (+4500).

Crane is a big pick for most golf bettors in The Players Championship because he always plays so well at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in the top-6 three times though he was tied for 45th last year.

It’s Fowler who is generating the most buzz, however, after defeating Rory McIlroy in the sudden death playoff at the Wells Fargo Championship last weekend. Fowler is just 23-years old, and if he was the movie star, McIlroy is just chewed up enough in the face to be his stunt double. It’s uncanny.

McIlroy-Fowler could be the next, great rivalry in sports but if my money’s going anywhere in that war, it’s with the hot stroke of Fowler who has momentum.

As I said, there’s no use beating around the bush at The Players Championship. It’s a brutal course, with a devastating par-3 that devours so many good players over the course of a weekend. If you’re trying to scope the field for some good bets, I’d go with Mahan, Fowler and Mickelson in that order.

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Nadal and Djokovic Look Destined to Meet in the Finals…Again

2012 ATP Madrid

Rafael Nadal takes to the clay this week and he’s not too happy about it.  The French Open, the next grand slam event of the year, takes place between May 26 and June 10. There are three more ATP events, after ATP Madrid, before the French Open: the ATP Internazionali BNL d’Italia, the ATP Power Horse World Team Cup, and the ATP Open de Nice Cote d’ Azur. All three of those tournaments, like the ATP Madrid, will be played on clay.

The big difference, and the reason that King Clay Rafa, and #1 ranked in men’s singles Novak Djokovic, are upset is because the ATP Madrid is being played on blue clay as opposed to the traditional red clay.  Djokovic and Nadal assert that the way that the ATP went about it, deciding to change the color of the clay without fist consulting the players, was dead wrong.

Not all players echo Djokovic’s and Nadal’s sentiment.  Serena Williams, who coasted to a victory over the blue stuff in her first match at the ATP Madrid, while her sister Venus lost 6-4, 6-1, to Angelique Kerber, doesn’t mind the blue clay at all.  According to Serena, “I think it’s the same (blue and red) except for the color, and you don’t get as dirty, which I love.”

Take that Rafa and Djok!

 

2012 ATP and WTA Madrid:  Free Picks

 

ATP – Men’s Singles

 

Rafael Nadal

Sure, Djokovic snapped Nadal’s 37-match clay court winning streak in this tournament in 2011, and Djok did beat Nadal in Rome on clay just a few weeks after the 2011 ATP Madrid victory, but that was then and this is now.  Since Rome of last year, Rafa has won 21 straight on clay.  More amazing is the fact that Nadal has lost only four times in a clay final, to Roger Federer at Hamburg in 2007 and Madrid in 2009, and to Djokovic at Madrid and Rome in 2011.

Nadal owns it on clay and if Serena is right, that there isn’t much of a difference and Rafa’s just being Rafa, then he’ll own it again at Madrid in 2012.  Blue, red, fuchsia…it doesn’t matter.  Nadal should dominate on the clay at Madrid unless he let’s his mind get in the way.

Once the odds come out, Rafa’s going to be a huge favorite to win the ATP Madrid.  Bet against Nadal at your own peril.

Novak Djokovic

The world’s #1 ranked men’s singles player met Rafa for the 31st time at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters’ final on April 22.  Djok beat Nadal 6-3 to 6-1 and now owns a 17 to 14 record versus his main rival.  Djokovic, no doubt, is going to be very difficult to beat at Madrid, but he faces potentially tough matchups in the third round and quarterfinals versus Sanislas Wawrinka and Gilles Simon.

Wawrinka advanced all the way to the Estoril quarter-finals just last week.  Simon has won 10 singles titles overall and just won the Bucharest title on April 29.  Neither guy figures to beat Novak Djokovic in Madrid, but they could rough him up some for Rafa or Roger Federer if either makes the finals.  In fact, Djok escaped with a 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 victory over Daniel Gimeno-Traver in his first match at Madrid.  Rafa’s gotta be feeling pretty good right about now.

 Roger Federer

Federer, now ranked #3 in the world, returns to action at Madrid and will get some play in the Tennis sportsbook, but he doesn’t have much of a shot against either Nadal or Djokovic.  Federer will most likely have to battle Nadal in the semis before taking on Djok in the finals.  It’s doubtful he gets past Rafa.  If he manages to, then Djok should handle him easily.  Federer did win in Dubai in February and at the BNP Paribas Open in March, but both of those tournaments were played on a hard surface.  Nadal, and even Djokovic’s, clay mastery should seize the day at Madrid.

 

ATP Madrid

Top Pick:  Rafael Nadal
Second Choice:  Novak Djokovic

 

 

 

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Philly at NJ, St. Louis at L.A., PHX at Nashville Playoff Picks

Hockey Playoffs

Things are heating up in Pro Hockey betting! The Playoffs have never looked fresher with five of the eight teams remaining looking for their first ever championship. Two of the teams with banners hanging in their arenas face off when Philadelphia takes on likely short-handed New Jersey. In the West, St. Louis tries to bounce back in Hollywoodon May 3.  On May 4, Phoenix travels to Nashville.

With one of their star players out of action, New Jersey scored 4 goals in the final period of their Game 2 victory over Philadelphia.  Now, NJ tries to take a 2 to 1 series lead, likely without star player Ilya Kovalchuk again on Thursday night.  Also on Thursday night, St. Louis tries to bounce back in Los Angeles after losing 2 to 5 to L.A. in Game 2.  Then, on Friday night, Phoenix battles Nashville in a Game 4 that could even up the series.

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

NHL Playoffs – Free Picks

Game 3

Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils

When:  May 3, 2012 at 7:30 pm EST

Betting Odds:  New Jersey -120, Total 5.5

Down 1-0 going into the third period of Tuesday night’s game, the Devils absolutely exploded, putting a serious beat down on the home team Flyers in Game 2 by sending 4 pucks into the net.  The score ended up NJ 4 and Philly 1.  Can the Devils go up a game in this series now that it’s switched to New Jersey?

Ilya Kovalchuk, who leads the Devils in points, 83, and shots, 310, is listed as questionable for Game 3. NJ outshot the Flyers 12 to 2 in the second period of Game 2.  Not only that, but the Devils’ goalie, Martin Brodeur, was good for 19 saves. Only 19 saves, meaning that the Devils’ D was on point the entire night. 

New Jersey’s D is playing too well right now.  Even if Kovalchuk sits out the third contest, Philadelphia won’t have an answer for the Devils’ awesome defense, and that’s the reason why the Flyers are likely to lose Game 3 on Thursday night.

Pick:  New Jersey Devils

 

St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings

When:  May 3, 2012 at 10:00 pm EST

Betting Odds:  Los Angeles -115, Total 4.5

St. Louis’s biggest issue so far in this series, L.A. is up 2 to 0, is of the mental variety.  The Blues are so horrible on the offensive end of the ice that they feel that any time they get an advantage that they have to take advantage by playing very aggressively to get the puck into the net.  When only concentrating on their offense, St. Louis has ended up allowing the Kings to exploit them.

The Kings have outscored the Blues 8 to 3 in the two games of this series.  They’ve scored 4 goals short-handed during the playoffs and are 5 and 0 on the road.  They return to L.A. sky high and feeling like they can put the Blues away.  Not so fast, Kings.  St. Louis is still arguably the best defensive team in the NHL.  The Blues are ranked first in goals against, 1.9, and first in shots against, 26.7 per contest.

Although St. Louis hasn’t played like it so far this series, the defense is just too good to continue to allow a team like Los Angeles to rack up goal after goal.  The Blues figure to play much more conservatively on the road against the Kings on Thursday night than they did in the first two games in St. Louis.  That should lead to a Blues victory and the first step to getting them back into this series.  

Pick:  St. Louis Blues

 

Game 4

Phoenix Coyotes at Nashville Predators

When:  May 4, 2012 at 9:00 pm EST

The Predators are a -165 favorite in Game 3 on Wednesday night.  How that game plays out will go a long way in determining the odds for Game 4 on Friday night.  Surprisingly, Nashville is still a big favorite even though both Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn are suspended from playing in Game 3 due to breaking team rules.

Perhaps, GM David Polie and coach Barry Trotz are trying to fire up a squad that just didn’t appear in sync at all in the first two games of this series.  Either way, it’s not a good sign for the Predators going into Game 3 and, depending on the Game 3 result, it may be a terrible sign going into Game 4. 

The Coyotes are a relentless bunch.  Phoenix has gone into overtime in 6 out of their 8 playoff games so far during the post-season.  They’ve won 4 out of the 6 OT games including taking Game 1 from the Predators 4 to 3.  The Coyotes beat Nashville 5 to 3 in Game 2.  Phoenix has shown no signs of quitting in this series while the Predators have shown nothing but a lack of interest and it’s getting worse.

Polie and Trotz’s hope of firing up their players comes at a terrible time.  The Coyotes could very well end the series on May 4 with a fourth straight victory.  Even if Nashville pulls something from underneath the ice in Game 3 and somehow beats Phoenix without Radulov and Kostitsyn, the Coyotes will regroup in Game 4 and punish Nashville.

I like Phoenix.

Pick:  Phoenix Coyotes 

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