ATP Acapulco First Round Tennis Picks: Bellucci, Gasquet and Moya

February 23, 2010 by admin
Filed under: Tennis Betting 

Acapulco, Mexico – Thomaz Bellucci, Richard Gasquet, Carlos Moya and Eduardo Schwank feature in first round action today at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel tournament. Here is a look at the market that is trading on their matchups, complete with tennis betting verdicts and picks.

Tennis Betting Line:

Thomaz Bellucci -5 -145 -800 20 O Ev U -140
Oscar Hernandez +5 +105 +425 20 O Ev U -140

First Set Line: Thomaz Bellucci -500 Oscar Hernandez +300

Match Time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Monday February 22, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Bellucci takes an 11-4 mark on the season, which includes a 7-1 mark on clay and one-title into his opening round match against veteran Oscar Hernandez. He also has a 1-0 edge over Hernandez. Bellucci won the title in Santiago three weeks ago and followed up with a quarterfinal appearance at Costa do Sauipe. He skipped the Copa Telmex last week. Appearing in his third clay court event of the South American clay court swing, Bellucci is unseeded but he is a player to watch. Certainly, he can shake things up.

Tennis Free Picks: Bellucci enters his opening round match as the solid, -800 favourite to win outright. Hernandez is the significant puppy at +425. Considering Bellucci’s prowess on clay and his current good form, he is the smart play to win outright. Hernandez is not without clay-court skills, his best results come on the red stuff. As such, I expect Hernandez to perform well against Bellucci. Hernandez to cover the spread at + 5 +105 is therefore a good bet as well as the Over 20 at Evens.

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Tennis Betting Line:

Santiago Gonzalez +350 20½ O -110 U -130
Eduardo Schwank -600 20½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Santiago Gonzalez +250 Eduardo Schwank -400

Match Time: 07:30 PM Eastern Time Monday February 22, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: It will be the first career ATP meeting between Santiago Gonzalez and Eduardo Schwank when they collide in the first round at Acapulco. The pair met recently at a Futures event in Bogota. Schwank beat Gonzalez convincingly. Schwank has the on paper edge, he ranks within the top 100, at No.81 and has more experience on the ATP. Gonzalez, by contrast, ranks outside of the top 100, at No.177 and has little ATP experience – lifetime, he is 8-9 at this level.

Tennis Free Picks: Schwank has to be the correct play to win outright. He is favoured significantly at -600 to win outright. Gonzalez has home edge and this should inspire him to play well but I don’t see an upset. I would recommend skipping his outright win odds at +350. He could account well and therefore the Over 20 ½ at -110 might be a good option.

Tennis Betting Line:

Carlos Moya +3 -110 +175 22 O -115 U -125
Richard Gasquet -3 -130 -225 22 O -115 U -125

First Set Line: Carlos Moya +140 Richard Gasquet -180

Match Time: 10:00 PM Eastern Time Monday February 22, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Richard Gasquet, currently ranked No.54, is looking to reclaim his top-ten form. To this end, he has amassed a 6-4 mark on the season, which includes a quarterfinal appearance in Brisbane and a runner-up finish in Sydney. After the back-to-back encouraging results during these Aussie Open warm up events, it was not without disappointment that Gasquet crashed in the first round of the Aussie Open. Since the Aussie Open series, Gasquet has continued his negative trend. He was a first round casualty in Buenos Aires. Gasquet will be looking to snap his losing streak against Carlos Moya in the first round of the Abierto Mexicana.

Carlos Moya, a former World No.1 and French Open champion, is looking to recover some of his glory days. Moya has a long way to go however since skipping the 2009 season with a hip injury and falling off the ATP radar. He currently weighs in at No.439 and boasts a 1-3 mark on the season. That said Moya has never lost to Gasquet. He takes a 3-0 lifetime edge over the Frenchman, including two victories on clay. The last time they met was in Bucharest in 2008 wherein Moya dispatched Gasquet 6-2, 6-4.

Tennis Free Picks: Moya doesn’t have enough match play under his belt yet but he is such a natural clay-courter ,and a popular player come to that, that one cannot underestimate him – even when handicapped so. At +175, I believe he is the better play to move into the second round. The market favours Gasquet at -225, a solid price point that clearly indicates the bookies estimation of this matchup is contrary to mine. Gasquet has form and theoretically should win this match but knowing that clay is his worst surface – he is a much better fast court player – I think Moya, in spite of questionable match form, has a real shot.

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