As Training Camps Begin, MVP NFL Futures Betting Heats Up

As training camps begin all across the NFL this week, one thing becomes increasingly clear.  When it comes to MVP NFL futures betting, shying away from betting the favorite, Indianapolis Colts’ QB Peyton Manning, might be the smartest thing to do.

The NFL odds on P. Manning to win his second straight MVP award are an astonishing +550.  To me, those odds just don’t tell the true story of Peyton’s chances of winning yet another MVP.

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Since 1957, when the NFL MVP award was first handed out, only one player has ever won three straight MVP Awards which is what Manning will be trying to do this season.  That player, Brett Favre of the Green Bay Packers, won the MVP in 1995, 1996 and 1997 and in 1997 Favre shared it with RB Barry Sanders of the Detroit Lions.  Manning won it twice in 2003 and 2004.

Then, he won it twice again in 2008 and 2009.  Peyton Manning is the only 4-time winner of the NFL MVP Award.  It’s doubtful, at least in my mind, that he wins the award for the 5th time. At least not this year.  Not in a year where there are so many great players on the field.

If not Manning, who then is the likeliest player, going off at the best NFL odds, to win the NFL MVP?

NFL MVP

Best Bet A:  QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints +700

Many feel that Brees should have won the NFL MVP last season.  Compared to Peyton’s QB rating and Brees’ QB rating last season, there was no debate.  Brees should have walked away with the MVP based on his 109.6 rating as opposed to Peyton’s 99.9.  Peyton threw for more yards but 1 less touchdown.  Brees completed 70.6% of his passes.  Peyton completed 68.6% of his passes.  Brees threw 11 picks.  Peyton threw 16 picks.

The NFL MVP voters want to give the award to Drew Brees.  There isn’t a single person on the planet, I believe, who has anything bad to say about the man.  They’re going to do it if Brees comes anywhere close to the numbers he put up last season and the Saints win at least 12 to 14 games.  Brees is the best pick to win the NFL MVP Award this season.

Best Bet B:  QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys +1200

Romo took that leap into elite quarterback status last season.  Because of that, the NFL odds on him to win the MVP have dropped significantly from what they were before last season.  This year, T.R. might be ready to take that leap into Top 3 QB status.  Romo keeps getting better and better on the field while his decision making ability gets better both on the field and off the field.  T.R. threw for almost 4500 yards last season, 26 TDs and an amazing 9 picks.  That’s right.  Tony Romo who used to throw the ball up willy-nilly and hope for the best, threw less than 10 interceptions in the 2009-2010 NFL Season.

Like Brees, NFL MVP voters no doubt will be looking to support the Dallas QB, a scratch golfer who decided to not play in a PGA Tournament in order to concentrate on football.  His work ethic has started to become ridiculous and his leadership abilities have begun to really take hold of an ultra-talented Dallas Cowboys’ team.  Troy Aikman, Dallas’ former awesome QB, never won an NFL MVP Award even though he won 3 Super Bowl titles.  The voters won’t make the same mistake with Romo.  If they can give him the award, oh, they’ll do it.

Worst Bet (Besides Peyton):  RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans +1000

It’s hard for running backs to win NFL MVP Awards.  Since 2000, only Marshall Faulk from the St. Louis Rams, Shaun Alexander from the Seattle Seahawks and LaDainian Tomlinson from the San Diego Chargers won the NFL MVP.  It just doesn’t happen as often as some might think. The problem with C.J. is that he ran for over 2000 yards last season.  This season, defenses will be better equipped to handle his speed and, to make matters worse for Mr. Johnson, his team doesn’t appear to be all that great.  I don’t see him taking home the NFL MVP trophy in the 2010-2011 NFL Season.

Best Underdog Bets:  QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans +2000
                                   RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens +3500

Nobody wants to take Schaub seriously in Houston, but everybody might have to.  The Texans are loaded on offense and Schaub has developed into a seriously awesome QB.  He threw for close to 4800 yards last season and 29 TD’s for a terrific 98.6 QB rating.  He’s got a ton of weapons on offense and the Texans won their last 4 games in 2009.   

Rice is the motor that makes the Ravens go.  To me, he’s the best back in the NFL.  The man ran for an electrifying 5.3 yards per carry.  He rushed for 1339 yards.  He caught 78 passes.  He’s the main reason that I love the Baltimore Ravens this year to win the AFC Conference.  If Rice can score around 5 more TD’s this season, he only had 8 last year, he could very well become a running back that wins the NFL MVP Award.  Rice’s +3500 NFL odds to win the MVP this season make him a nice overlay in the sportsbook.