Are the Vikings Making a “Sage” Decision?

BetOnline Sportsbook customers who follow pro football know that the free agent market is moving at a furious pace. The Minnesota Vikings are trying their best to develop more balance in the offense, and in this edition of Jay’s Ways, Charles Jay of the BetOnline Locker Room considers the ramifications of that.

Sports Betting-related Commentary

JAY’S WAYS

March 2, 2009

Are the Vikings Making a “Sage” Decision?

To any informed observer, it has been clear what the needs of the Minnesota Vikings (+1800 to win the Super Bowl at BetOnline) are. The NFC North champs, who lost to the Eagles in the playoffs, have the kind of defensive line that controls the line of scrimmage against opponents. They have the kind offensive front that is able to open up holes for a running game that is among the league’s elite. The offense is headed up by the man who may be the best in the business, Adrian Peterson, who even has a capable backup in Chester Taylor. The pass rush was addressed with the acquisition of Jared Allen, and that has helped the performance of the secondary.

The one glaring weakness in the Minnesota arsenal, as it has been for the last couple of seasons, is that the team does not have the kind of passing gamer that can make opposing defense play honest; no way to exploit the game plans of opposing defenses if they decide to overplay against the run. Gus Frerotte was a stop-gap, but stop-gaps generally don’t get teams to the Super Bowl. Tarvaris Jackson may never have kind of polish that can lead a consistent offensive attack. John David Booty is probably a longshot at best.

That’s why you have to at least give the Vikes an "A" for effort in trading for Houston backup Sage Rosenfels last week. Rosenfels, who has had a starting job at various times for the Texans in his three-year tenure, is not one of those "safety first" guys who put up a high percentage and moves a team from side to side, but not down the field. He has indeed completed 64% and 67% of his passes in the last two years, but he also threw for 8.2 yards per attempt last year. Of course, the problem with Rosenfels is that he can be mistake-prone; he tossed six touchdown passes last year but was intercepted ten times, and in an October 5 game against Indianapolis, he fumbled twice and threw an interception late in the fourth quarter to blow a Houston lead and give the Colts a near-miraculous win.

So what you’ve got is kind of a swashbuckler; a guy who is almost certain to make things happen, either for himself or the other team.

As some NFL people have already remarked tome, at least SOMETHING will happen.

Minnesota is looking for help for Rosenfels. They have been actively courting Pro Bowl receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who will presumably be making a decision from among the Bengals, Vikings and Seahawks (and may have that decision made by the time you read this). At 32, he may not have long-term prospects, but for Minnesota, the future is now, because the window for running backs like Peterson to be dominant is dangerously small, and they’ll want to take advantage of their prowess at the line of scrimmage while they can.

Hiushmandzadeh obviously thinks he could fit right in with the guys in purple. "If I can play with Adrian Peterson, can you imagine what I would do getting one-on-one coverage?," he told ESPN. "I’m going to win 98.6 percent of the time with one-on-one coverage with him in the backfield."

The problem as of early Monday morning was that Minnesota may be coming in very short on the money end of the deal. The Bengals’ offer is the best one, and reportedly is a five-year deal. There is also a comfort of sorts, in that T.J. would stay with a quarterback with whom he’s had quite a bit of chemistry over the years (Carson Palmer, who was hurt most of last year). Seattle’s offer is three years, but pays more than Minnesota’s. Players often talk about how money isn’t everything; that playing for a contender carries a lot of value, and if that is Houshmandzadeh’s mindset, well, Minnesota is much closer to making something important happen than either of the aforementioned suitors.

If they are able to sign Houshmandzadeh, does that shift the balance of power in the NFC North? Well, since the Vikings are the champions of that division, I would say that it maintains it. Detroit (+15000 for Super Bowl at BetOnline) won’t be a factor this year, Chicago (+4000) still has questions to answer at the quarterback spot and Green Bay (+2500) needs to make some acquisitions to get back in the fray. If the Vikes miss out on Houshmandzadeh and Rosenfels bombs, the division crown could be very much in play.

I have the feeling Minnesota would not be done yet, even if they sign Houshmandzadeh, although I don’t know that they’re going to be looking for something else at quarterback. Brett Favre? I don’t know anything about that. Jeff Garcia is out there, but they seem content with a competition between Rosenfels and Jackson. The big factor is that no matter who is under center, if there are no threatening wide receivers on the roster, this will be the same old one-dimensional story in Minneapolis.