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Alabama is # 1 and Betting Favorite to Win National Crown Again

August 9, 2010

College football bettors who like to engage in futures will have some fun speculating on who will come out on top when the BCS (Bowl Championship Series) is decided in January, and right now the betting favorite to win the national crown is Alabama, which is also the #1 team in the pre-season USA Today college football poll. Alabama is the top entry in college football betting futures at +425 to win the national championship, and not coincidentally, also tops the coaches’ poll that was released last Friday. The defending champions, who are returning only two of eleven starters, got all but four of the 59 first-place votes in the poll.

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College Football Betting
Odds to win BCS National Championship
(Teams at 40/1 or less; USA Today ranking in parentheses)

Alabama           +425 (1)
Ohio State        +600  (2)
Oklahoma         +700  (8)
Boise State       +800  (5)
Florida             +900  (3)
Texas               +1400 (4)
Nebraska          +1400  (9)
Virginia Tech  +1800  (6)
Penn State       +2500  (14)
Iowa                 +2000  (10)
Miami Florida    +2000  (13)
TCU                  +2000  (7)
LSU                  +2500  (16)
Oregon             +2500  (11)
Georgia            +3000  (21)
Arkansas          +3000 (19)
Oregon State    +4000  (22)
Wisconsin        +4000 (12)
Clemson          +4000 (NR)

 

The Crimson Tide returns Mark Ingram to the lineup, as part of a loaded backfield. Ingram, who gained 1658 yards last year, is the +350 betting favorite to repeat as Heisman Trophy winner. But he’s not the only guy who will be carrying the ball for this team. Trent Richardson, who came to the Tide last year as one of the highest-rated freshmen in the country, had 751 yards. Wide receiver Julio Jones, who was a star recruit a couple of years ago, is on a lot of pre-season All-American teams, and quarterback Greg McElroy returns after a season where he completed 61% of his passes with a ratio of 17 touchdowns to four interceptions. Touted as one of those "all-he-does-is-win" types, McElroy has not lost any game he’s started since the eighth grade.

The Tide gets an early test when it plays host to Penn State (+2500 to win the BCS title in the college football betting odds) , which is ranked 14th in the USA Today poll. The road schedule includes trips to 19th-rated Arkansas, 16th-ranked LSU and Tennessee, which is now piloted by Derek Dooley after Lane Kiffin bolted for USC.

The September 25 meeting with Arkansas, to be held in Fayetteville, is going to be particularly daunting, not only because the Tide will have to contend with quarterback Ryan Mallett, who is priced at +1000 in college football betting to win the Heisman, but because they have to avoid a trap as they look forward to a showdown seven days later everyone has been waiting for.

You see, this year, Alabama has to face Florida, its foe in the SEC title game last season, which is third in this opening poll. The Gators, who are priced at +900 to win the BCS national title in college football betting, will be quarterbacked by John Brantley after three years of Tim Tebow and should carry more of a passing emphasis in their spread option. Brantley threw 48 passes last year, with seven TD’s and no interceptions.

Alabama, which played an FCS team, Chattanooga (Terrell Owens’ alma mater) last year as the tune-up for the annual "Iron Bowl" against Auburn, will have an even easier time of it this year, as it faces Georgia State, headed up by former ‘Bama coach Bill Curry, on November 20. Georgia State is in its first year of football, at any level, and how the NCAA could allow something that silly is somewhat mysterious.

Alabama and Florida are the only SEC entries who are the top ten, with LSU (+2500 odds to win national title), Arkansas (+3000), Georgia (+3000) and Auburn (+4500) also nationally-ranked. Alabama is currently -200 to capture the SEC West title, and is -105 to win the SEC championship game, with the Gators next in line at +250. Florida is actually the bigger favorite to win its own division, posted at -250 to emerge from the SEC East against that amounts to much lesser opposition.

According to the USA Today poll, as well as the college football betting odds, the primary threat for Alabama on its road to a second straight national crown is Ohio State, which is priced at +600. The Buckeyes boast nine starters back on offense, and that includes quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who Jim Tressel swears is going to throw the ball more. Pryor is the second favorite behind Ingram in the battle for the Heisman Trophy (+450), and OSU is -250 in college football betting to win the Big Ten. To get to the title game, they will have to get through the final three-game stretch, which has them hosting Penn State, visiting Iowa (tenth-ranked and +2000 to win the national title) and playing the traditional matchup with Michigan at Columbus.

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