AL Championship Series Rematch – Rays at Red Sox

BetOnline MLB betting odds: Rays -120, Red Sox +100, Total 10

Right-handers go up against each other here, as Tampa Bay’s James Shields (3-2, 3.51 ERA) faces Brad Penny (2-1, 7.61 ERA) of the Red Sox.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TB has won six of its last eight games

* TB has played five of its last seven road games

* BOS has won 16 of its last 21 games

* BOS has won ten of its last 11 home games

* BOS has played six of its last eight home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* TB has won five of the last six meetings

* Six of the last nine meetings have gone UNDER the total

* TB has won six of the last eight meetings as the road team

* Four of the last six meetings in Boston have gone OVER the total

Tampa Bay is on the road back. The Rays blasted six home runs on Thursday night to beat the Yankees 8-6 and get to within two games of the .500 mark. Evan Longoria hit two dingers, and he now has 38 RBI’s to lead the majors. Carlos Pena, who hit one out as well, has 13 homers and is the big league leader in that category. They are probably the most potent 1-2 punch in the game right now, and they are joined by Jason Bartlett, who is hitting .340. Maybe the other bats will come around.

The pitching staff is still okay, but not much better than that. James Shields has a 3.51 ERA and three victories. What’s a bit of a concern with him, though, is the fact that he has 23 strikeouts and 13 walks. That 1.77 ratio would be just fine for some pitchers, but Shields has a higher standard, as someone who had a ratio of 5.1-to-1 two seasons ago and 4-to-1 last year. Other than that he has been really solid in his last three outings, giving up six runs in 21-1/3 innings. He’s made two starts against Boston this season; in his initial outing he gave up five runs in 5-1/3 innings, and in his last effort, just five days ago, he held the Red Sox to two runs in 7-1/3 innings in a 5-3 Tampa Bay win. A lot of people still remember his brilliant two-hit shutout of the Sox on April 27 of last season.

In Shields’ last start, Brad Penny was his opponent, and he didn’t pitch badly, allowing three runs in six innings. In fact, it may have been his best outing thus far. Penny had arm problems last year and a 6.27 ERA. He was considered something of a risk when Boston picked him up, and there remain questions about him, with some so-so performances.

There is no question that Tampa bay gets up for these meetings with the Red Sox. In the season’s first week the Rays took two of three from them at Fenway, then last week they won two of three again at Tropicana Field. As we know, the Rays also beat the Sox in last year’s AL Championship Series.

We talked about Longoria and Pena. Well, Boston has a hot hitter of its own in Kevin Youkilis, who is at .393 with six homers and 20 RBI’s. Youkilis is day-to-day with stiffness in his left side, though, and may not be available. Are these factors enough to support Tampa Bay as a favorite? We say not, because Penny, who at least encouraged a bit with his last effort, has a much better bullpen backing him up, and the Red ox have won 10 of their last 11 at home. We’ll go with underdog Boston here at even money in the BetOnline American League baseball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: BOSTON (Even) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)