AFC Wildcard Weekend Upset Alert – Baltimore vs. New England

The Baltimore Ravens were 3 and 0 and ranked #1 in a lot of NFL Power Rankings when they waltzed into New England to take on the Patriots in Week 4. The Ravens played a spirited game against the Patriots even though they were only 1 point underdogs and didn’t cover the spread.

In losing 27 to 21 in the game, the Ravens showed the rest of the NFL that they were indeed a good team and could contend for a Super Bowl. Then, strangely, the wheels sort of fell off. The Ravens lost 6 out of their next 7 games. They needed a victory over the Oakland Raiders this past Sunday in order to secure an AFC playoff berth.

What did the Ravens get for their win? A date with the Patriots in New England. Will history repeat itself or will Baltimore come through the second time around?

Below are the NFL playoff wagering lines for this game.

Baltimore Ravens +3 ½ -110 O 43 -110
New England Patriots -3 ½ -110 U 43 -110

Here are a few online NFL football betting trends for this game.

• The Baltimore Ravens are 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Under is 8-2-2 in the Baltimore Ravens last 12 games as a road underdog.
• The New England Patriots are 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• The Under is 5-1-1 in the New England Patriots last 7 games overall.

Now, let’s see how the offenses and defenses matchup.

Ravens’ Offense vs. Patriots’ Defense

The Baltimore Ravens offense is ranked 13th in the league. It’s somewhat balanced with Joe Flacco able to put the ball in the air to wide receiver Derrick Mason and tight-end Todd Heap, but make no mistake, the Ravens love to run the ball.

In fact, Baltimore is ranked 5th overall in rushing. They average 138 yards per game on the ground. Most of those yards come from the exceptional Ray Rice, but veteran Willis McGahee also has the wheels to run for a ton of yards.

If the Ravens’ rushing game is going well, then this team is very difficult to beat.

Baltimore vs. New England -3.5 >> Join Now to Bet!

The Patriots’ defense is ranked 11th in the league but it’s seriously flawed. The Pats rely too much on safety Brandon Meriweather to bail them out of blitz situations because even when they do blitz, the Pats’ D has trouble getting to the quarterback.

The Patriots’ also give up, on average, 110 yards per game on the ground. The biggest problem with the Pats’ D is that their two top defensive linemen, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, are beat up.

New England’s defense could have used a bye week to rest their starters. Instead, they’re going to have to try to contain McGahee and Rice.

Ravens’ Defense vs. Patriots’ Offense

The Ravens’ D doesn’t dominate the way it used to but it’s still good enough to be ranked 3rd in the NFL. The Ravens are terrific against the rush allowing only 93 yards per game on the ground.

Against the pass, they aren’t as good but can still be fearsome as teams average only 209 yards per game through the air against them. The Ravens rely on pressure on the QB. When the Ravens have success rushing the quarterback, they can flat out destroy teams.

Of course Tom Brady, the Patriots’ future hall of fame quarterback is used to pressure. Brady leads the 3rd ranked offense in the NFL. He has a fantastic target in Randy Moss who has caught 13 touchdowns this season.

The Patriots’ rushing attack is somewhat underrated as New England rushes for 120 yards per game on average. With all of that being written, New England has a glaring hole to fill. That hole is the one left by Brady’s favorite target, Wes Welker, who injured himself in Week 17 against the Houston Texans.

With Welker out for the rest of this season, the Patriots have to find a way to get Randy Moss free on the edge or tight-end Benjamin Watson free up the middle. In other words, Brady is going to have to work some magic in order to replace Welkers’ awesome numbers in the passing game.

That won’t be easy.

The Best NFL Bet Is…

On the Baltimore Ravens to cover the 3 ½ NFL point spread. Yes, the Patriots are at home, but the loss of Welker is a huge, huge blow to this team.

Welker wasn’t only Tom Brady’s favorite target but he returned punts and kick-offs on occasion as. Even though Moss has had a good season touchdown wise, his receptions and yardage is down this year.

Brady also has a suspect offensive line trying to keep him off of his back and will be playing with cracked ribs in this game. Any way you cut it, the Patriots could be in some trouble in this one.

I like the Ravens at +3 ½.