AFC West Week 3 Matchup – Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos (+1) vs. Oakland Raiders (-1)

O/U (35½)

Sunday, September 27 4:00 PM ET

The Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U) will be looking to move to 3-0 when they hit the road in NFL Week 3 to take on their AFC East division rivals, the Oakland Raiders (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on Sunday at 4 PM ET.

The Broncos moved to 2-0 SU and ATS by beating the struggling Cleveland Browns 27-6 as a 3-point favorite in Week 2 while the game’s 33 combined points played under the 38.5-point O/U total.

Veteran running back Correll Buckhalter rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on nine carries while quarterback Kyle Orton completed 19 of 37 passes for 263 yards with one touchdown in the win.

The Raiders defeated Kansas City Chiefs 13-10 as a 1.5-point underdog in Week 2 but didn’t look very good in doing so while the game’s 23 total points played Under the 40-point O/U total.

Darren McFadden rushed for 35 yards and the game-winning touchdown on 12 carries, while third-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell continued looking clueless in completing just 7 of 24 passes for 109 yards in the win.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

• Broncos are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. AFC.
• Broncos are 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 games overall.
• Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
• Broncos are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. win.
• Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Raiders are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Raiders are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
• Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
• Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Under is 7-0 in Broncos last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 home games.

NFL Odds

• Denver Broncos +1 -110
• Oakland Raiders -1 -110
• Over 35½ -110
• Under 35½ -110

Analysis: While almost every key trend in this contest seems to suggest an Oakland Raiders ATS cover, I am going on record right now to say that I have absolutely no trust in a team’s whose third-year quarterback – and former No.1 overall draft pick – still has absolutely no clue on how to play the most demanding position in professional football.

If you saw JaMarcus Russell’s 7-for-24 passing performance in Week 2 against a mostly pitiful Kansas City Chiefs defense, then you know why I’m backing the Broncos in this contest despite the fact that they are playing at home.

While both teams enter this contest with unblemished 2-0 ATS records, I like the Broncos to hand Oakland its first wagering loss – and second SU loss of the season in this contest.

Despite Oakland going a spotless 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, the Raiders have also posted a pathetic 0-9 ATS mark in their last nine games as a home favorite and just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games.

The Broncos haven’t exactly put up the most impressive ATS wagering statistics, going a discouraging 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite and just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games against AFC West opponents, the road team in this series has gone an impressive 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Throw out the trend that says the Broncos are just 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings against the Raiders and take Denver to hand their shaky-looking division counterparts a loss in this contest.

NFL Expert Pick: Denver Broncos +1 Point