AFC Playoff Picks – New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

Sunday, January17th — Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA — 4:40pm EST

NFL Betting Line: San Diego Chargers -7 (42)

In the Sunday night game, the New York Jets travel to the west coast to take on the AFC West champs, the San Diego Chargers. The Jets impressed last weekend dismantling the AFC North Champs the Cincinnati Bengals, can they make it two in a row? Let’s have look.

The BetOnline Sportsbook has the Jets +7 point underdogs and the predicted game total at 42 points. You will have to risk $300 to win $100 for a straight up wager if your taking the Chargers.

The Jets were a public dog on wildcard weekend, meaning the odds makers listed them as the underdog but the NFL betting public knew better and loaded up on the Jets. It was a nice win and so far this week many of the NFL experts expect a repeat, maybe not an outright win but the sharps I talk to expect New York to keep it within a touchdown. The game opened at -9 Chargers but since Sunday, it has dropped to -7, so it’s not just the sharps betting on the Jets, it’s everyone else.

Right now, I’ll admit my bias towards the Chargers, so take this prediction with a grain of salt. An important rule wise guys will tell you is that when we make our wagers we’re not suppose to bet with our hearts, only our heads. We all follow that one don’t we? My heart screams Chargers but my head says they’ve won ten straight but in recent years they have disappointed in the playoffs, will this be another disappointment or will we see number 11 come against the New York Jets.

Jets cornerback Derrelle Revis can shutdown Chargers top receiver Vincent Jackson but San Diego Quarterback Phillip Rivers (4254 Yards, 28 TDs) has too many other weapons at his disposal. LaDanian Tomlinson has come alive and has three TDs in his past four games and Pro-Bowler Antonio Gates is having the best season of his career. Rivers has connected with eight different receivers in the end zone this season, Revis is great but he can’t be everywhere.

Mark Sanchez had a 139.4 passer rating against the Bengals but he only threw 15 passes all game, against the San Diego Chargers he’ll need to throw more. Sanchez is 3-7 when he’s throw more than 20 passes in a game and those three wins were his first three games in the league. In those 10 games he’s throw 8 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.

The Chargers defense ranked near the bottom against the run and the Jets have a fantastic running game. It looks like a huge mismatch but most people only look at the yards given up and not touchdowns scored. The Chargers defense tightens things up nicely when their backs are against the end zone, bending but rarely breaking. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets can gain huge yards on the ground against the Chargers but have to settle for kicking field goals. If you are settling for field goals against the Chargers, you will lose.

NFL free pick: San Diego Chargers -7