AFC NFL Odds Total Pick for NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers battle the New York Jets for the second time this season for a conference title and a trip to Super Bowl XLV on Sunday, January 23rd. The AFC NFL odds are up in the sportsbook for the game with a total set at 38 ½ points.

In the first game between these two, Pittsburgh failed to score a last minute touchdown. The result was a 17 to 22 loss to the New York Jets. The odds makers, and many football handicappers, 87% so far, are picking the Steel Men and J-E-T-S to go nuts on the scoreboard this Sunday.

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The over is the popular choice, but I’m thinking under in the AFC Championship. Keep reading to find out why!

New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

When: Jan. 23rd, 2011 at 6:30 pm EST

TV: CBS

NFL Total Betting Line

New York Jets Over 38 ½ -110

Pittsburgh Steelers Under 38 ½ -110

Check out some total betting trends for this game.

• The Over is 10 and 1 in the New York Jets last 11 road games.
• The Over is 7 and 1 in the New York Jets last 8 games as a road underdog.
• The Over is 4 and 0 in the Pittsburgh Steelers last 4 games as the favorite.
• The Over is 14 and 2 in the Pittsburgh Steelers last 16 playoff games.

Wow. According to the trends, this is a no-brainer. Going over on the AFC NFL odds total is definitely the bet to make…according to the trends.

But I’m looking beyond the trends in order to find out the best wager regarding the total for this contest. The stats paint a much different picture than the trends do. The stats say that this game goes under by a mile. First, the New York Jets’ D has improved versus the pass. It was already one of the best defenses versus the run allowing only 90.9 yards per game on average, but now it’s allowing only teams to pass for 200.6 yards per game. That ranks it 12th against the pass.

Pittsburgh’s D is the best in the NFL versus the rush. The Steelers allow only 62.8 yards per game on the ground. They can be exploited through the air, Pitt is ranked 12th in that category, but that’s not enough for me to believe in betting over the AFC NFL odds total in this game. Why? Because it’s obvious to me that Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez doesn’t have the skills to exploit the Steelers’ secondary. Yes, he could have minimal success versus the Steelers’ secondary but not the type of success that’s going to lead to over the total of 38 ½ points.

Both of these teams have excellent defenses. Not only that, but the Jets, and the Steelers to a degree, will be very conservative on offense on Sunday. Neither team will want to make a game changing mistake. That means taking their time and trying to rush the ball before airing it out.

I see the AFC Championship Game going under the total on Sunday, January 23rd.

AFC Championship Total Betting Pick: Under 38 ½

Log on and make an AFC NFL odds total wager for this weekend’s AFC Championship Game between the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers!