AFC Finals Playoff Predictions – Jets Looking for Third Straight Upset

Those who are involved with AFC Finals playoff predictions know that the New York Jets will be looking for their third straight upset win, and against a third straight Super Bowl-winning quarterback, when they line up for the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The game is set for 6:30 PM ET at Heinz Field (natural turf) in the Steel City, and Rex Ryan’s team, which backed up some tough talk last week against the New England Patriots, will be trying for their second win in Pittsburgh in a little over a month. In the NFL odds, the Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 38.5 points, and that is the basis on which we will make our AFC Finals playoff prediction.

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AFC Finals Playoff Predictions

New York Jets (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS)

Live at Heinz Field

Pittsburgh, PA

Sunday, January 23 — 6:30 PM ET

TV: CBS

Odds – AFC Finals Playoff Predictions:

Pittsburgh -3.5

N.y. Jets +3.5

Total 38.5

Here are some of the NFL trends as they impact AFC Finals Playoff Predictions:

• New York has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• New York has won four of its last five games SU
• New York has won 13 of its last 16 road games SU
• New York has played ten of its last eleven road games OVER the total
• Pittsburgh has won seven of its last eight games SU
• Pittsburgh has covered five of its last six games
• Pittsburgh has won four of its last five home games SU

The Jets did not flinch last week as they went to Foxborough against the 14-2 Pats. They took a quarterback who had not thrown an interception in his last eleven games and picked him off early, then sacked him more than he had been all year long. They topped 300 yards for the fourth straight week, and have now beaten Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks. In our AFC Finals playoff predictions, that is something that has to be strongly considered.

Pittsburgh got some breaks from the Baltimore Ravens, intercepting Joe Flacco and forcing a pair of fumbles, coming back from a 21-7 deficit to win and cover the spread in the NFL odds. Ben Roethlisberger was 19 for 32 and completed two touchdown passes, but he was also sacked six times, which might be an open invitation for the Jets and their collection of blitz packages.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on our AFC Finals Playoff Predictions:

• Nine of the last eleven meetings have gone OVER the total
• Pittsburgh has won 11 of the last 15 meetings SU
• Pittsburgh has covered nine of the last 13 meetings
• Pittsburgh has won five of the last six meetings SU as the home team

The foregone conclusion of many experts is that the Steelers (allowing 3 ypc) will probably bottle up the Jets’ running game, which would leave Mark Sanchez with more pressure on his shoulders than he might have otherwise. New York was aided by a 97-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith when it took a 22-17 decision at Heinz Field on December 19. Smith did not play at New England, and that seemed to affect the way the Jets ran their wildcat-type stuff.

We mentioned last week that the Jets gave up 25 points and 228 passing yards per game when they were playing on the road. Well, they were pretty much on those averages through the first two games of this year’s playoff run, and after going up against Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, you’d have a hard time suggesting that Roethlisberger would be any more productive against them. For purposes of this AFC finals playoff prediction, I am sure that New York will run its blitzes on Big Ben, and they will be bothersome. By the same token, how much will the Jets produce than the 126 yards Baltimore was able to get last week at Heinz Field? Yeah, the Jets had 106 yards against Pittsburgh in the previous meeting, and that was a lot. But the last five opponents averaged 187 total yards against them. The Jets scored 13 points from scrimmage, getting the other scores on the kickoff return and a safety.

I still don’t think Sanchez is the guy who can carry this team, and the Steelers are going to make him do it. It has been a hell of an effort for Rex Ryan’s team to win those games on the road, and we now have seen them do it four times since last season. But winning three in a row on the road is a chore, and in this game the critical differences might be a QB that has won two title games (and Super Bowls, for that matter) against one who hasn’t, and a team that has someone like Troy Polamalu patrolling the back line (not present in first meeting) against one that doesn’t. We’re going with the Steelers in our AFC finals playoff prediction for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY: PITTSBURGH -3.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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