AFC East Showdown – Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Game-day: 10/4/2009

Kick-off: 4:05 pm EST

The Buffalo Bills travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in a game that both teams need to win. Buffalo played a fantastic defensive game versus the New Orleans Saints last Sunday before giving up 17 points in the 4 th quarter. The Bills’ biggest issue in that game was keeping the Saints’ defense from dominating both their running game and their passing game.

Buffalo has too many weapons, with T.O. and Lee Evans at the wide receiver position and the underrated Fred Jackson filling in for Marshawn Lynch at running back, to not put points on the board. They should be much more effective offensively this Sunday against Miami.

The Dolphins have been plain unlucky. They aren’t a bad team but now that they’ve lost their starting QB, Chad Pennington, to injury it’s going to be interesting to see how they do against Buffalo’s defense which isn’t very good.

Here are the BetOnline online sportsbook NFL wagering odds for this game.

Buffalo Bills -2 -110 -130 O 37 -110

Miami Dolphins +2 -110 +110 U 37 -110

Here are a few online betting trends for this game.

• The Buffalo Bills are 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games on the road.
• The Buffalo Bills are 25-7-1 against the spread in their last 33 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The Miami Dolphins are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog at home.
• The Miami Dolphins are 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

The Dolphins no doubt will look to control the clock with their running game and the Wildcat Offense. Of course, the Fins have been very good at controlling the clock in each of their first three games. What have they shown for it? Not much.

What Miami needs to do is use running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in a more classic set. In other words, ditch the Wildcat and get back to basics.

Saints’ RB Pierre Thomas lit up the Bills on the ground last Sunday because Buffalo was so concerned with taking away Drew Brees and the Saints’ terrific passing game. They won’t do that in this game as Chad Henne most likely won’t beat them deep and Ted Ginn Jr. is not the answer at the wide receiver position for the Fins, but the holes in that Bills’ defense were exposed.

They could get torched by Williams and Brown. If they do, Miami might actually win this game straight up at better than expected odds because of the Pennington’s injury.

The bet is on Miami at +110 on the money line in the sportsbook.