AFC Championship – Who Wants It More

The story between the Ravens and Steelers etches another chapter this weekend when the two AFC North rivals battle in the AFC Championship at Heinz Field. The debate has waged on as to who has the better defense. Pittsburgh this season has ranked number one in points against with 13.9, and has the second best home rushing defense and second best passing defense. Simply put, you can’t run on them and you can’t throw against them.

Why?

Easy. Troy Polamalu, Samoan safety has risen as one of the league’s most dominant safeties ever. With seven interceptions and 54 solo tackles, the creative and play-busting safety has made a huge impact on this Steelers defense. When Joey Porter left for Miami, Pittsburgh was left searching for an identity and Polamalu gave it to them.

However, he often loses the spotlight to Ed Reed, perhaps the most dominant defensive threat in the league. Reed led the league in interceptions with 9 and added a forced fumble to his stat sheet, tallying his total turnovers to 10 on the season. But to add to that, he also has two touchdowns. It’s been argued that there is nobody more entertaining to watch than Ed Reed when he picks off a ball. His tackle count may be lower (34 solos), but Reed’s impact on the game is massive.

NFL Betting Trends

-Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games

-Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games

-Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Pittsburgh

-Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU when playing Baltimore at home

-Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games

-total has gone OVER in 4-of-5 when Baltimore plays Pittsburgh

So who do you turn to in a game that will likely be dictated by defense. On one hand, Polamalu affects every single defensive play, by coming up early to stuff the run, or break up any long bombs with a pick or deflected pass. On the other hand, you have Ed Reed, who is easily the scariest scoring threat that the Ravens have. On Sunday, the two safeties will have a chance to prove just who has the bigger impact in the biggest game of the season for either player.

But this game also has a huge implication on the offensive end. Considering that Ben Roethlisberger, who is one of the most successful quarterbacks playing for less than 5-years, has all the experience in big game situations and a more reliable canon, I’d take him over Joe Flacco on the road in a viscious setting. You can’t really expect Joe Flacco to lead this team back from any kind of deficit.

If the Steelers proved anything it’s that they won’t take their foot off the peddle when they have the ball. Willie Parker tore the front-seven of the Chargers to shreds. While he won’t enjoy the same success against Baltimore, his ability to break even one run off will be a scary thought for the Baltimore betting faithful.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Sunday, January 18th — Heinz Field, Pittsburgh — 6:30pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Pittsburgh -6

My take on this game is actually a lot simpler than you’d imagine. The defenses are both intensely tenacious. But only one offense can truly move the ball. Baltimore averaged just 175.4 passing yards per game, and nobody runs on the Steel Curtain. Nobody.

So who do you have? A proven Superbowl Champion throwing Hines Ward, Heath Miller and Nate Washington, or Joe Flacco, a rookie that nobody had heard of until Week 2 of the NFL season?

Sometimes betting on the NFL is easier than you think.

NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh -6 (OVER)