#6 SDSU to Cover Not One of the Easier Free Basketball Picks on Saturday

There are easy free basketball betting picks and then there are hard free basketball picks.  When Air Force takes on the #6 San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday, Feb. 19th, as a home underdog, hoops handicappers will be faced with one of the harder free basketball picks.

In fact, as I write this sentence, I’m still not sure which way that I’m going in this game.  I suppose, readers will have to keep reading to find out!

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#6 San Diego State Aztecs (26-1) at Air Force Falcons (13-11)

** Records and state not counting Thursday and Friday games.

Where:  Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, Colorado

When:  Feb. 19th, 2010 at 2:00 pm EST

TV:  TBD

Likely NCAAB Betting Lines

San Diego State Aztecs                      -12 ½   O 125

Air Force Falcons                                +12 ½ U 125

Check out some trends for this game.

• The San Diego State Aztecs are 7 and 3 ATS in their away games this season.
• The San Diego State Aztecs are 5 and 5 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Air Force Falcons are 7 and 3 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Air Force Falcons are 4 and 4 ATS at home this season.

San Diego State is going to be a big road favorite in this game on Saturday.  Will they be one of my free basketball picks for February 19th?

I don’t believe so.  SDSU is one of my favorite teams in college basketball right now.  In fact, I’d love to place a few bucks on the Aztecs to win the NCAA Tournament straight up, but my gut tells me that things aren’t going to go so well for the Aztecs on the road versus Air Force on Saturday.

SDSU, based on stats, should dominate Air Force.  The Aztecs score a terrific 72.4 points per game off of over 47% from the field.  They allow an amazing 58.7 points per game off of 39.4% shooting.  The Aztecs are a terrific squad, but they’ve had their moments this season where they just haven’t done as well as hoops handicappers expect.  The Aztecs barely beat Colorado State 56 to 54 as -5 ½ point favorites on Feb. 2nd.  The Aztecs could only beat TCU by 7 points, 60 to 53, as -20 ½ point faves at home on Feb. 5th.  Versus New Mexico in their last, SDSU could only muster a 68 to 62 victory as -10 point faves.

Unless San Diego State is around a -9 ½ point road favorite or less versus Air Force I just don’t see how I can make SDSU to cover one of my free basketball picks for Saturday.  The Aztecs just have a penchant for playing in close games.

Air Force has a penchant for making games close.  Besides the 56 to 90 home loss to BYU on Feb. 9th, the Falcons have kept it close versus UNLV and San Diego State this season.  SDSU could only beat Air Force by 13 points, 86 to 55, as 18 ½ point home favorites in January.  UNLV beat Air Force 49 to 42 as 15 ½ point home favorites in the Falcons’ last contest.

Air Force is only 4 and 4 ATS at home, but they figure to get a dozen or more points from the Aztecs on Saturday.  Because of that, the Falcons are the team to back in the sportsbook to cover the spread on Feb. 19th.    

NCAA Odds Betting Pick:  Air Force Falcons ATS    

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