5 reasons to bet the over on Super Bowl 44

The super bowl vegas spread opened with the Indianapolis Colts favorite by 4 points but the Vegas odds makers also think the game total reach the 50s, which is the highest in history but don’t panic, here are my five reasons why you should bet the over:

1. Points per game in regular season: The Saints averaged 31.9 points per game, most by anybody in the league and the Colts average 26.0, pretty good number if you ask me.
2. Point per game postseason: History says teams usually get more conservative in their play calling when they get into the playoff, but not these teams. Both continue to be aggressive and not only calling the plays but executing them too.

   The Colts averaged 25 points against 2 strong defenses. The Saints averaged 38 points against a bad defense and a good defense. You do the math.

3. 3rd down conversion: Indy is the best team in the NFL in third down conversions with almost 49.2 % completion; they seem unstoppable especially when Austin Collie or Pierre Garcon get in the slot. And the Saints are the worst on stopping 3rd down conversions.

   On the other side New Orleans Saints completed 44.7% of their third down conversions attempts. Consider Drew Brees will find anyone in the black and gold as long as they are a ½ step ahead of the defender.

4. Brees vs. Manning: 1997 was the last great matchup between two amazing QBs when Favre faced Elway; Warner and Brady met on 2001 but the Patriots QB was in his first year as a starter and hadn’t fully developed.

   Both Manning and Brees are at the top of their games, scoring TDs at will, making me expect a Super Bowl for the ages.

5. Games all year: Indy surpassed the 56 point total only in three games all season and both times against two teams that had great QBs and porous defenses like the Saints.

   They beat the Patriots 35-34 and the Texans 35-27 in games that were a battle between Manning and Brady and Manning and Schaub.

   The Saints on the other hand played 6 games where the game total surpassed the 56 points, including a game where against the Dolphins where the total hit 80.

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