(3) Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Game-day:  2/28/2009

Tip-off:  3:30 pm est.

The #3 ranked Oklahoma Sooners, and one of the top ranked teams in the Power Rankings, travel to Texas to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have a fantastic straight-up record of 25 and 3.  Their record ATS is 12-10-1.  Their record against the spread on the road is 5-3-1.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been a huge disappointment this season.  They have a terrible straight-up record of 12 and 16.  Their record against the spread is 7-13-1.  Their record ATS at home is 2 and 8.

Here is my personal betting line for this game.

Oklahoma Sooners                            -3 ½ -110

Texas Tech Red Raiders                  +3 ½ -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

• The Oklahoma Sooners are 2 and 3 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Oklahoma Sooners are 4-5-1 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.
• The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 1 and 4 against the spread in their last 5 games.
• The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 4 and 6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The BetOnline Sportsbook can’t possibly release a betting line where the Sooners are favored by more than 3 ½ to 5 ½ points because Oklahoma’s best player and the best player in college basketball, Blake Griffin, will be on the bench for this game.

Since Griffin left the Texas game with a concussion, Oklahoma has lost two games in a row and two games against the spread.  Kansas and Texas are both way better than the Red Raiders, but Oklahoma can’t be expected to cover a big spread, let’s say around 6 ½ to 10 ½ points, against a team on the road without their best player.

This is a watershed game for the Sooners.  Losing to Texas and Kansas without Griffin is one thing.  Dropping a game to the Red Raiders without Griffin would be disastrous.

I’m going to say that Oklahoma bounces back in this game.  I see them possibly beating the Red Raiders by close to ten points.

My hope is that because of Griffin’s injury, the BetOnline odds makers keep the betting line low, let’s say roughly Oklahoma -5 ½ or less.  If that’s the case, then I’m going with the Sooners to cover the spread.