3 Game BCS Bowl Parlay – Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl and BCS Championship

My final 3 Team Parlay college bowl wager of the 2009-2010 NCAAF Season begins on Monday night when the TCU Horned Frogs take on the Boise State Broncos and ends in the BCS Championship when the Texas Longhorns battle the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The middle game of the parlay is the Orange Bowl where two terrific 2 loss teams, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, figure to battle it out for bowl honors.

Let’s take a quick peek at each game. Below are my college bowl predictions for each game that is part of my 3 Team Parlay: the Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl and BCS Championship.

Fiesta Bowl – 1/4/2010

Boise State Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Kick-off: 8:10 pm EST

College Bowl Betting Odds: TCU -7 ½, Total 53 ½

Analysis: TCU has the #1 ranked defense in college football. They also have the 4th ranked offense in college football sports gambling.

Boise State runs a spread offense that in most cases can put up a ton of points, but the Broncos haven’t faced a team quite like TCU this season. The Horned Frogs beat 6 teams during the regular season that would go on to bowl victories in 2009. That’s very impressive. TCU also has a key road victory over the Clemson Tigers in their win column.

Boise State’s lone quality win in my opinion was against Oregon in Week 1 of the season. There’s been a lot of time since that win. The Broncos simply aren’t as good as TCU and it should show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.

Pick: TCU Horned Frogs -7 ½

Orange Bowl – 1/5/2010

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Kick-off: 8:10 pm EST

College Bowl Odds: Georgia Tech -4 ½, Total 50 ½

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Analysis: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were absolutely terrific when winning the ACC Championship in their last game. They beat a very good Clemson Tigers team for the second time in 2009 and will go into the Orange Bowl with some momentum.

But Tech really hasn’t faced a team with the type of defense that Iowa will put onto the field in the 2010 Orange Bowl. Iowa held both Penn State and Wisconsin, two teams that won January 1st bowl games, to 10 points during the regular season and allowed only 4 teams to score 20 or more points against them in 2009.

That should set things up well for this game to go under the total of 50 ½. Georgia Tech might cover because they could definitely win by a touchdown, but Iowa’s often times pedestrian offense will try to control the clock with the run and the Hawkeyes’ D should keep Tech from putting up more than 28 points in this.

The Orange Bowl should go under on Tuesday night.

Pick: Under the total of 50 ½

BCS National Championship – 1/7/2009

Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Kick-off: 8:10 pm EST

College Bowl Odds: Alabama -4, Total 44 ½

Analysis: Alabama went 8 and 5 against the spread during the regular season. The Texas Longhorns went 5-7-1 ATS.

Don’t get me wrong, Texas is a good team but their against the spread record should definitely cause gamblers to pause. Texas, as good as they were in certain games, like their victories over Texas Tech and Oklahoma, were just as bad in other games, like their 10 point victory over Texas A&M where they allowed the Aggies to put up 39 points or their squeaker against Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship where they needed a questionable call in order to beat the Cornhuskers 13 to 12.

Yes, ‘Bama got lucky against Tennessee when winning 12 to 10 but that was many games ago. Since that tough victory, the Tide has rolled against LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and, in one of the most dominating performances I’ve ever seen in a #1 versus #2 matchup, the glorified Florida Gators.

‘Bama is hitting on all cylinders, Coach Nick Saban is a terrific big game coach and QB Greg McElroy threw for a 66.7 completion percentage against the Florida Gators and their #1 (at the time) ranked defense.

Three other things are in Alabama’s favor in this game: ‘Bama’s defense allows less than 242 yards per game on average, 11 points per game on average, and they’ve got the Heisman Trophy winner carrying the ball for them.

They’re the pick.

Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide at -4