Tough to Go Against Favorite in Tennis Futures

Australian Open Mens Picks

There’s a huge tennis tournament going on this week in Australia.  It’s one of the biggest Pro Tennis betting tournaments of the year and although the odds in the sportsbook range from +125 on the favorite to +35000 on the longest shot, it’s very difficult to go against the favorite in the futures’ book.

In fact, on the men’s side, the battle for the title in Australia figures to come down to only three possible winners with another tennis player having an outside shot to upset the Top 3.  Keep reading for info and picks!

2012 Australian Open

When:  January 16 – January 29

Where:  Melbourne, Victoria Australia

Category:  Grand Slam

Top Pick:  Novak Djokovic +125

The Serbian won the Australian Open in 2011.  In fact, Djokovic has won two Australian Open titles, one last year and the other in 2008, and is the number one ranked player in the world.  He should be.  Djokovic’s 2011 was a tennis player’s dream.  Djokovic won the U.S. Open and Wimbledon in addition to winning the Australian Open.  He finished in the semi-finals at the French Open.  The man was a match away from taking home the Grand Slam of Tennis in 2011.

Anything above even money, and +125 is definitely above even money, makes Djokovic an overlay wager to take home the Australian Open in 2012.  He’s the king of the court right now and proved it in his first Australian match on Jan. 16 when he took down Italy’s Paolo Lorenzi 6-2, 6-0, 6-0.  Djokovic is virtually unbeatable right now, is in excellent condition, and with third choice Rafael Nadal playing through a slight knee injury, there isn’t a lot of competition standing in Djokovic’s way to the title.  Wager with confidence, friends, because Djokovic is providing a sweet 25% profit on the initial bet in the future’s book to win the Australian Open.  The odds are nice.

Second Pick:  Roger Federer +350

Getting close to 4 to 1 on Federer, and +225 on top of the odds on the fave, to win the Australian Open makes the yellow ball hitting master another overlay.  Federer has to be considered a serious threat to Djokovic.  In 2011, Federer lost to Djokovic in the Australia Open semis.  He ended up suffering through a horrendous rest of the year due to nagging injuries, but, now healthy, Federer figures to climb back on top, or at least get close to the top of the tennis world.  Only Djokovic stands in his way with Nadal nursing the knee injury.

Nadal, whom Federer has a serious rivalry with, was fantastic on Jan. 16th on day one, but the knee injury figures to worsen as the tournament commences making Federer the one to back at the decent odds.  Federer has won four Australian Open titles and that’s why he’s a serious challenger to Djokovic’s supremacy.

Third Pick:  Andy Murray +500

After escaping with a victory over Ryan Harrison on Day 2 of the tournament, it can be forgiven if many tennis handicappers dismiss putting Murray in the Top 3.  That would be a mistake.  Murray, because of the tough battle with Harrison, has already gotten through his big test.  The man has finished in the Australian Open finals the past two years and is ranked 4th in the world.  Murray deserves to be in the discussion and although he might not be in the same class as Djokovic, or even Federer for that matter, he’s certainly a talented tennis player.  Plus, the odds are definitely right on the 2010 and 2011 runner-up.

Betting Strategy

After looking at this week’s odds in Pro Tennis, I’m going to take $100 and work with the numbers to make a profit if Murray or Djokovic wins and cut my losses with a Federer victory.  I’m taking a chance by not using Nadal, but the injury should put Rafa out of the running for the title very soon in this tournament.

I’m going to put $65 to win on Novak Djokovic.  At +125, my $65 translates to a $81.25 profit.  So, for $65, I get back a total of $146.25 or a profit of $46.25 off of the entire $100.  Not bad.

I’m going to back Murray with $20.  At +500, if Murray wins, I get $120 back for a total profit of $20 off of my $100.  Then, I’m going to go with Federer with my final $15.  If Federer takes home the title at +350, my return will be $67.50 for a loss of $32.50.

 

Good luck!

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Saturday NCAAB Prime Matchups

Saturday NCAAB Prime Matchups

The college basketball sportsbook is brimming with NCABB betting action and, as always, Saturday is the best day to bet on college basketball.  This Saturday, Jan. 21, brings a number of excellent matchups for gamblers to make money with.

#1 Syracuse, #2 Kentucky and #3 Baylor are all in action on Saturday.  Keep reading below for potential betting lines as well as an analysis of each game.

Alabama Crimson Tide (13-4) at #2 Kentucky Wildcats (18-1)

When:  Jan. 21 at 12:00 pm EST

Potential Betting Line:  Kentucky -10

Analysis:  13 and 4 Alabama is 3 and 1 ATS in their last 4 games.  Not only is the Crimson Tide 3 and 1 ATS, but they’re also 5 and 1 straight up in their last 6 games.  ‘Bama’s D hasn’t allowed more than 59 points in those last 6 contests.  The Tide is, however, coming off of a 52 to 56 loss to Mississippi State in their last.

A 4-point loss in their last game could be a good or bad sign.  In that game, forward JaMychal Green had 14 points and 4 boards.  Green’s going to have to be much better than that if ‘Bama has any hopes of beating Kentucky.

But, for hoops handicappers, Alabama won’t have to beat Kentucky in this game.  The Wildcats are an incredibly awful 4-13-1 ATS this season overall.  They are 2-9-1 against the spread at home.  They did just cover a spread against Arkansas, in an 86 to 63 victory, on January 17, but will they be able to carry that over against an Alabama team with one of the best defenses in NCAAB?

Probably not.  ‘Bama allows, on average, only 56 points per game, 36.8% from the floor, and 26% from behind the three-point line.  Because I expect the betting line to be north of 10 points in this one, Alabama is the team to back.  There’s a good chance that the Tide’s defense frustrates Kentucky and keeps the Wildcats from covering the number.   

Pick:  Alabama Crimson Tide

#5 Missouri Tigers (17-1) at #3 Baylor Bears (17-1)

When:  Jan. 21, 2:00 pm EST

Potential Betting Line:  Baylor -3.5

Analysis:  Missouri is on a roll.  They’ve won three games in a row versus Iowa State 76 to 69, Texas 84 to 73 and Texas A&M 70 to 51.  The Tigers covered the spread in all three games.

Missouri has one of the best offenses in college basketball.  The Tigers average 83 points per game, are ranked 4th in NCAAB, and shoot a fantastic 50.7% from the field.  The Tigers shoot a decent 40% from behind the three-point line.  Guard Marcus Denmon leads the team in scoring average, but Missouri’s success against Baylor will be determined by the play of 6’8” Ricardo Ratliffe.  The huge 240 lb power forward is averaging 14 points and 7 boards per game.  Ratliffe will be counted on to clog up the middle and keep Baylor player Quincy Acy from having a monster game.  Acy only averages 12 points per game, but he’s got the talent to drop 30 and grab 12 boards on any given Saturday afternoon.

Even if Ratliffe shuts down Acy, the Bears might not slow down because 6’ 11” Perry Jones III might be better than Acy.  Perry Jones III is averaging 14 points and close to 8 boards per game.  Acy and Jones III pose a serious dilemma for Ratliffe and the Tigers.  Throw in yet another 10 points + forward per game in Quincy Miller and all of a sudden it becomes apparent that the Baylor Bears are going to dominate the lane in this contest.

Baylor figures to cover a less than 4 point spread against the #5 Missouri Tigers at home on Saturday without any issues in NCAA College Basketball betting.  

Pick:  Baylor Bears

#1 Syracuse Orange (17-1) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-8)

When:  Jan. 21, 6:00 pm EST

Potential Betting Line:  Syracuse -14

Analysis:  Syracuse showed up as a 13.5 point favorite against 12 and 7 Providence earlier in January.  So, I’m thinking that they go off as a close to a 14 point favorite versus Notre Dame on the road on Jan. 21. 

The Orange is 4 and 0 against the spread in their away games this season.  Not only did they cover the 13.5 points against Providence on the road, but they’ve also covered a 9 point spread against Villanova on the road, a 14.5 point spread against DePaul on the road, and a 7 point spread against ACC North Carolina State on the road.  Obviously, the #1 ranked team in the nation, with Scoop Jardine, Fab Melo and Kris Joseph all healthy and playing at a high level, will be difficult to beat on Saturday, but does Notre Dame have any shot of covering a likely 14 to 16 point spread as a home dog?

I don’t think so.  Notre Dame is 3-8-2 ATS overall and only 2-1-2 ATS at home this season.  They’re a decent team, well-coached, and will be fired up to play on Saturday, but they have absolutely nobody on the team that matches up with Syracuse’s three-headed monster of Jardine, Melo and Joseph.

Unless two of Syracuse’s top three players have a worse than off day on Saturday, the Orange should roll in this contest.  I like Syracuse to make it 5 and 0 ATS on the road this season by covering a close to 14 point spread against Notre Dame on Jan. 21. 

Pick:  Syracuse Orange

 

 

 

 

 

 

         

 

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Road Teams Dominating Friday Night Betting in Pro Basketball

Pro Basketball Friday Picks and Game Previews

Road Teams Dominating Friday Night Betting in NBA

The betting world is focused intently on the football matchups this weekend, but there’s money to be made the night before the big games kick off on Saturday. Pro Basketball betting has been pretty par this season for one major reason: this killer 66-game schedule is the great equalizer. Let’s earmark some games to watch.

Indiana Pacers over TORONTO RAPTORS

Basketball keeners knew the Pacers were going to be good, and a 96-84 beatdown of the schizophrenic Atlanta Hawks helped march that argument forward. The harsh schedule favors teams with deep benches, and the Pacers have got length, speed, shooting and consistency in bunches.

On the other side of the court, nobody in their right mind thought the Toronto Raptors were going to be good this season and their recent skidmark of losses has removed any positivity in Raptor land. Are you really going to bet on a team that just lost to Sacramento and previously-winless Washington?

Strangely, the Raptors used to be a great Friday night bet but are recently 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games that kick off the weekend. The favorite has been the team to rely on when these two butt heads, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The line on Indiana will be generous so hop on board heavily.

Chicago Bulls over BOSTON CELTICS

Boston started the season badly, went on a four-game winning streak and are now caught in a bad slide after losing to Indiana and Dallas. Things are about to get worse with Derrick Rose coming to town. The problem with the Celtics is unfortunately something you can’t fix: they’re old.

In previous years, Boston had a way of rising up to challenge young teams as the gatekeepers to contendership in the Eastern Conference. Now they’re just trying to prove they belong in the conversation, which is a sad way to see Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen spend their remaining years.

The Bulls are undefeated against the spread in their last 4 games, and are 5-0 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. Boston is 3-7 ATS when playing a team that is above .600% in the win column, and are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Fridays. I know, I have this weird thing about Friday games. It’s the crowd factor.
                                                                                                
Chicago has a lot to bank on. One of the best point men, one of the deepest starting six and they’re also top-10 in points, rebounds, assists and defense. Chicago has two weird losses to Atlanta and Golden State when travelling, but they know that this is a big statement game because it will send ripples through the East. Make a splash with the expected road favorites.

Portland Trail Blazers over SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Generally speaking, you have to worry about the Blazers when they’re playing on the road. After opening a stinker against Orlando, they managed to make the Wednesday game close losing 107-104 where they were favored by -3.0. Don’t worry too much tough, they had a sluggish 12-point deficit heading in to the half in that game.

In fact, the Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when opponents score at least 100-points in their last game. And if that doesn’t scare you, they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus the NBA Northwest.

As I’ve harped on, this shortened schedule is killing the older teams and while the Spurs can rely on Duncan and Parker to a certain extent, they don’t have the deepest roster and their young guns, like DuJuan Blair, aren’t ready to take over games yet. The fact is that San Antonio is built around their version of the Big 3, and there’s not much else to the team.

The Blazers are really a hot bet right now in BetUS Pro Basketball Betting.Another generous road team line will be yours to profit off of with Batum and the Blazers visiting a known franchise like the Spurs, which will reduce the line since the public will be all “The Spurs! Hells yeah!” Stay smart. Bet Blazers.

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2012 Australian Open Tennis Futures – Down Under Hopefuls

Australian Open Futures Starts 2012 Grand Slam Season

Australian Open Futures Market: Who will win the 2012 Aussie Open

As the first Grand Slam of the year approaches, the all-consuming question of who will win the coveted trophy is making the rounds in tennis betting circles. Now, I’ll admit it is a bit premature to even contemplate answering this question at this point, seeing that the qualifying rounds aren’t even completed and the draw is yet to be released. So it’s a bit of a cart-before-horse situation. But if you’re a diehard fan, it’s simply too seductive to put off for any longer. I mean, it’s the first Grand Slam of the season. Besides, bookmakers have already gone to press with the futures odds. And I mean, since they are there, for all to bet on at will, why not give a little bit of a preview of the 2012 Australian Open with some early predictions and picks.  

The Contenders in the Men’s Field:

Novak Djokovic     +135
 it’s hardly surprising that Novak Djokovic leads the pack going into the 2012 Australian Open. The Serbian starlet started his unforgettable 2011 season by winning the Aussie Open after all. Moreover, he showed he was more than ready to defend his title Down Under when he beat Federer in 44 minutes at the pre-season exhibition event in Abu Dhabi, en route to the title.

Roger Federer     +275
By virtue of his 16-Grand Slam titles, Federer is always going to be considered a contender at a Grand Slam, even now after having crossed the 30-year-old mark. That said, Federer did withdraw from the first event of the season in Doha with a back injury and, although he insists he’ll be ready for a successful campaign Down Under, the question mark still hangs over his head.  The first week for Federer will be telling.

Rafael Nadal    +500 
it’s rather surprising that Rafael Nadal is tipped so long ahead of the Australian Open. True, he’s admitted to a shoulder injury but, then again, Federer copped to a back injury and he’s listed much at much shorter odds.  Given this price tag, 10-time Grand Slam winner Nadal seems to be a value bet to good to skip.

Andy Murray     +500
Andy Murray has long been considered a contender and so he is again in the mix. He has yet to win a Grand Slam title, although he has been to three finals. There is no question that he has the quality and talent to win but his inexplicable failures make him an unpopular choice.

Best Long Shot Bets: The best long shot bets in the men’s game have to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Aussie Open finalist, trading at +1500; and former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro, who is listed at +1200

The Contenders in the Women’s Field

Petra Kvitova     +275
Last year’s Wimbledon champion, Petra Kvitova has to be one of the best bets in the women’s game to win the Australian Open this year. The Czech rising star epitomizes the power-playing style that has taken over the women’s game and she is the only emerging star who has proven to have the confidence to win the big titles. Especially promising for her run in Melbourne is that she is coming off a Year-end Tour winning title and a successful week at the Hopmans Cup last week.

Victoria Azarenka     +600
According to the bookmakers, Victoria Azarenka is a contender for the Australian Open title. The Belarusian has game, no question about it but to expect her to win a Grand Slam when she has yet to reach a final is a bit of a stretch.

Kim Clijsters     +600
Defending Australian Open champion Kim Clijsters is a huge question mark for the Australian Open, given that she spent most of the second half of 2011 on the sidelines with injuries.

Samantha Stosur     +800
 US Open champion and home favourite Samantha Stosur is definitely a player to watch Down Under when the tournament gets underway next week. Stosur beat Serena Williams convincingly at Flushing Meadows to win her first-ever Grand Slam and that could provide dividends in Melbourne when she attempts to claim a second title before adoring home fans.

BEST Long shot bets: The best long shot bet in the women’s game are French Open champion Li Na, also last year’s finalist in Melbourne, who is trading at a whopping +1500; Three-time Grand Slam champion Maria Sharapova at +1400; and World No.1 Caroline Wozniacki at +1000.

Divisional Pro Football Playoffs – San Francisco vs. New Orleans / Denver vs. New England

Pro Football Divisional Playoff Preview – Saturday Games

It’s Divisional Playoff weekend and this Saturday’s games are huge stories, but even better, they’re huge Pro Football betting events. Let’s take a look at both matchups.

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over New Orleans

I know, I know, I know. Everyone loves the team from the Big Easy, but there’s a lot to like about the home dogs in this game. For those that have been betting this season, both sides have been bosses against the betting line. San Francisco totes a strong 12-3-1 ATS record this season, while New Orleans has gone an equally impressive 13-4 ATS after demolishing the Lions (thanks a lot, refs).

Despite San Francisco’s almost unreal showing this year, the betting trends lean heavily in favor of New Orleans and for very good reason. Not only are they an unreal 8-0 ATS against the NFC this season, they’re also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when posting as the favorite.

That’s why the betting line has been inching away from the home team, which is odd because nobody travels to the west coast and plays that well. Remember Drew Brees and the defending champion Saints getting upended by Beast Mode and the unlikely Seahawks?

Ok, ok. That’s not enough to go on. For you nerds, the numbers are actually pretty even for the Niners as well. They’re 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home when listed as the underdog and a polished 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 NFC matchups.

I bring this up because the Niners are not the sexy team that the Saints are. You take Drew Brees over Alex Smith any day of the century. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first professional appearance in the playoffs, and Sean Payton won a Super Bowl two years ago. The Niners’ defense is predicated on stopping the run, which is actually how New Orleans sets up their high flying offense. Don’t expect San Francisco to miss the tackles that Detroit did, and that will limit what the Saints can do offensively.

Keep in mind that when these two teams met during New Orleans’ Super Bowl campaign in 2010, the floundering Niners lost 25-22 at Candlestick. If the Niners know how to do anything, it’s win a dogfight, especially at home. They went 7-1 SU at home this season, winning in double digits every single time and losing to Dallas in Week 2 by a field goal in overtime.

San Francisco is not a sexy bet by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re the smart one. I don’t like when teams travel west all that much, and the Niners’ dominance at home this season, plus their unsung performance when hosting as dogs, should be the kicker you need to bank on Alex Smith.

NEW ENGLAND -13.5 over Denver Broncos

Please don’t overthink this too much. Denver barely got past the Steelers who were playing their b-team on defense due to injuries, while Ben Roethlisberger was literally a stiff shell of himself. Even then, they needed everything to go right for them.

That won’t happen in the scathing cold of Foxboro. The Patriots are a hot 11-5 ATS against AFC opponents and know that the key to beating Denver is very simple: build a lead early and don’t let up. That’s what happened in their 41-23 beatdown of Denver and that’s what’s going to happen again.

Denver lost a major passing weapon in Eric Decker and while Demaryius Thomas showed flashes of what made him a deserving first round pick (over Tebow no less), he’s not the one man army that you need to beat New England. The best defense in this game is a great offense, and the Patriots have that in spades.

I don’t hate Tim Tebow. I don’t think Josh McDaniels will offer that much sage advice on a player he never started while in Denver. What you should do is simple: you’re already leaning towards New England. Enjoy the hype around Tebow, just don’t get yanked in like the rest of the suckers.

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Friday The 13th Pro Hockey Betting Picks

Friday the 13th Is Nothing to Be Scared Of For Pro Hockey Betting

Friday’s Pro Hockey betting card features five puck drops around the league to spot. Here’s a look at our top three picks on the day’s card: Washington hosting Tampa Bay, Toronto descending on Buffalo and Pittsburgh at Florida.

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EST

NHL Betting Verdict: The Washington Capitals snapped a two-game losing streak with a hard fought win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night at the nation’s capital, but the 1-0 score struck a rather unexciting chord. Crucially, it highlights certain concerning team trends, not the least of which is non-existent offense, namely from their star forward Ovechkin. Of course, it’s not just Ovechkin who is struggling offensively. The entire team lacks firepower, a fact that was made obvious during the two-game losing streak, when they were outscored by a combined score 10-4.

Still, all attention will be focused on the team’s figurehead. And it doesn’t help matters that Ovechkin seems to be well on his way to a mediocre (by his standards) season, what would be his second in a row. Ovechkin is without his wingman centre Nicolas Backstrom and defensemen Mike Green –both of whom are out with injuries, although you’d think that the quality of Ovechkin alone would see him somehow overcome this line-up shortfall.

Something has to give and soon because it is a visit from the offensive-minded Tampa Bay Lightning that looms on the horizon. There is a silver lining here for Capitals fans, though, and that is: Washington has won the last seven of eight at home (15-5-1 to date at home) and such an encouraging record will give them confidence. The Bolts on the other hand have struggled on the road this season: they are a disappointing 6-15-3. Moreover, by the time Friday rolls around, the Bolts will be heading into their third game in four nights. Tuesday saw them play and lose to the Vancouver Canucks in a shootout and Thursday sees them face Carolina Hurricanes.   

NHL Betting Verdict: Washington Capitals to win

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres @ 7:30 PM EST

NHL Betting Verdict: The Toronto Maple Leafs are on a roll to the delight of Brian Burke and, more importantly, diehard Leafs fans that’ve had no joy these past few seasons. Heck, decades. The Leafs take a four-game winning streak to a struggling Buffalo Sabres organization that is barely making the grade with an 18-19-5 record on the season. Indeed, the Sabres will have their hands full with Phil Kessel and Co. Speaking of Kessel, he’s on a tear this year with 48 points already – two-points behind league –leading Henrik Sedin – and 24 goals.

This will be the second game between these two teams this week after the Leafs shut out the Sabres at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Tuesday night. Now, such a loss typically would set up a ‘revenge’ backstory in most cases, except that the Sabres just don’t seem to have that kind of fire in their bellies.

NHL Free Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs to win

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Florida Panthers @ 7:30 PM EST

NHL Betting Verdict: With the Pittsburgh Penguins enjoying a major slump right now, the Florida Panthers might well fancy their chances to win and, in turn, heap more misery on the Crosby-less Penguins on Friday night. Well, that’s not the only reason the Panthers might feel confident. Things are going well for them now. They are after a solid win over the Vancouver Canucks on Monday night and into Friday’s clash as the Southeast Division leaders, thanks largely to an impressive 11-4-5 record at home.

Pittsburgh is in dire straits by contrast, on a six-game losing streak that sees them fourth in the Atlantic Division. Of course, Sidney Crosby’s absence has a lot to do with the team’s struggles. But he’s not the only player that is missing. The injury list is a bit of a who’s who read with Chris Letang and Jordan Staal on it, amongst several others. Clearly, this is not a Penguins team at full strength and as such, beatable by just about any team in the league. Therefore, you have to believe the hot Panthers have a better than average shot.

NHL Free Picks: Florida Panthers to win

UFC: Rio Aldo vs. Mendes is a Betting Carnivale

UFC Rio – Aldo vs. Mendes Preview

It’s an MMA betting Battle Royale in Rio de Janeiro on Jan. 14 as two of the best young fighters on the planet will step into the cage to throw down in a major championship war in the featherweight division.

Will Junior keep Money from taking away his title?  Keep reading for an analysis of this major BetUS Mixed Martial Arts Betting title fight! 

UFC Rio:  Aldo vs Mendes

When:  Jan. 14, 2012 7pm/10pm

Where:  HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Betting Line 

Chad Mendes              +190
Jose Aldo                    -240

Jose Aldo

Jose Aldo is the top-ranked featherweight MMA fighter in the world.  There’s a reason for that.  The man has lost only one fight in a 21 fight career, back in 2005 at the hands of Luciano Avezedo.  Never heard of Avezedo?  Exactly, which is why most fight fans consider the loss a fluke.  Since the Avezedo loss, Aldo has won 13 straight.  His victories include beating highly regarded opponents Urijah Faber, Manvel Gamburyan, Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian.

Aldo is reported as having a very strong ground game, but he uses his striking ability 73% of the time in his fights.  The reason for him to do this is simple; Aldo is as fast as any fighter in MMA and he’s equally fast striking with his hands and his legs.  He can produce an amazing leg sweep that many times gets his opponent to the ground where he follows up with a vicious ground and pound.

It took Aldo only two punches to knockout Cub Swanson in 2009, proving that he indeed does have power, but Aldo has no trouble taking his time and winning by decision.  He beat Urijah Faber via decision by outpointing the incredibly popular surfer fighting dude 77 to 20 in strikes.  He beat Mark Hominick via decision by outpointing his worthy opponent 94 to 71 on strikes and 5 to 1 on takedowns.  He beat Kenny Florian via a 51 to 40 strike advantage.

Aldo’s amazing speed equates to an incredible defense.  The UFC Featherweight Champion avoids 72% of the strikes attempted against him and an incredible 94% of takedown attempts against him.     

Chad Mendes

You don’t get to 11 and 0 in MMA unless you have talent.  The days of becoming a champion off of only a couple of fights (Brock Lesnar, anyone?) are gone.  Mendes is one of the best wrestlers in the world.  He backs up his incredible wrestling skills with incredible patience and discipline.  Since Mendes has won his last 6 fights via decision, the discipline is evident.

Mendes strikes only 22% of the time.  He usually strikes only in order to set up his incredible takedown ability.  73% of his skill breakdown involves takedowns.  He doesn’t often submit his opponents since Mendes isn’t a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler.  Instead, he piles up points via takedowns, keeps his opponent on the ground, and uses his wrestling ability to dominate fights.  When it comes to defense, Mendes is exceptionally gifted.  He prevents 74% of the strikes attempted against him and his takedown defense is simply marvelous.  Mendes’s takedown defense is 100% meaning that he has avoided every takedown attempt against him.

Overall Analysis

Chad Mendes might possibly be the most skilled fighter that Jose Aldo has ever met, but there’s a question as to whether or not Mendes’s wrestling skill will set him up for the upset in this battle.  This fight is going to hinge on two things:  first, will Mendes be able to handle Aldo’s amazing speed?  Second, will Mendes get Aldo to the ground?

In regards to the first question, Mendes will be facing the fastest man he has ever faced in MMA.  Mendes only prevents 74% of strikes against him.  Rest assured that Aldo will lower that 74% to 64% or possibly even 54% in this fight.  Mendes has an excellent chin, but his entire fight plan rests on the answer to the second question and I’m not so sure the answer to that is in Mendes’s favor. Aldo’s takedown defense is exceptional.  Preventing 94% of takedowns is as good as it gets considering the fighters that Aldo has faced.  As good as Mendes is, he’s going to have to work exceptionally well in order to get Aldo to the mat.

Will it happen?  As much respect as I have for Mendes, the answer is no.  I just don’t see how Mendes will be able to get Aldo to ground considering that he has to go full force into Aldo’s chest to do it.  If Mendes tries to take Aldo down by going to the side, Aldo will simply sidestep and land a barrage of punches or force Mendes into a headlock.  Either way, Mendes will have his work cut out for him.

To be sure, Aldo is taking no chances.  He’s been working on his ground game with Gray Maynard, an exceptional wrestler.  If Aldo needs to employ his newly found wrestling skills, then that’s what he will do.  I don’t believe Aldo will.  To me, the 74% strike prevention rate for Mendes and the 94% takedown prevention rate for Aldo are the keys.  Aldo is just too fast for Mendes to handle.  Aldo should be able to pop in, land a flurry of punches, and then pop out before Mendes is able to get him to the ground.

Because of that, I simply can’t back Mendes in this fight.  The odds are nice and Mendes is an exceptional wrestler, but Aldo is the best featherweight, possibly the best fighter, in Mixed Martial Arts.  Mendes has a shot but it’s not much of one.  I’m backing Jose Aldo to win on Jan. 14. 

 
Pick:  Jose Aldo -240

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Divisional Pro Football Playoffs – Houston vs. Baltimore / New York vs. Green Bay

Pro Football Divisional Playoffs – Houston vs. Baltimore and New York vs. Green Bay

Houston won their first playoff game in franchise history when they tore Cincinnati a new one in a 31 to 10 blowout victory in the Wildcard Round.  Now, Houston travels to Baltimore to take on the two seed.  Football odds makers believe that things are going to get much tougher for the Texans in the Divisional Round.  Houston is a big 7.5 point underdog against Baltimore on January 15.

Also on January 15, New York, fresh off of a 24 to 2 beat down of Atlanta, take on Green Bay in what has turned into a highly anticipated matchup.  Green Bay is a stout 8 point favorite to beat New York for the second time this season.

Keep reading for more info on Sunday’s Pro Football Playoff Matchups.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

When:  Jan. 15 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Baltimore -7.5, Total 35.5  

Analysis:  Football odds makers might have overestimated how bullish football handicappers will be on the favorites this weekend.  Although every home team won during the Wildcard Round last weekend, and every home team covered the spread, so far 65% of bettors back the Texans to cover against Baltimore this Sunday.  That’s a big percentage of bettors that think Houston will make it two in a row.

It’s tough to be a contrarian in this situation.  Baltimore was only 4-3-1 ATS at home during the regular season.  Not only that, but Baltimore went 3 and 1 ATS in their final 4 games of the season.  The Raven’s offense was downright scary awful in those 4 games when putting up only 24 against Indianapolis, the worst team in the NFL during the regular season, 14 on the road against San Diego, 20 against the stout Cleveland Browns and 24 against Cincinnati.

Defensively, the Ravens left something to be desired in those final 4 games.  The 34 points that Baltimore gave up to San Diego on Dec. 18 was downright embarrassing.  Only giving up 16 to Cincinnati was nice, but Houston’s offense might be better than Cincinnati’s at this point.

There aren’t many negatives regarding Houston going into this contest.  The biggest is the fact that Taylor Yates, the Texans’ rookie QB, is, well, a rookie, but that doesn’t bother me.  Why?  Because Yates has thrown only 3 picks since becoming the starter.  He’s tossed only 3 touchdowns…but 3 picks in 7 games?  It shows that Yates is being ultra careful with the ball and that’s the way for Houston to win the playoffs because their defense is the best in the NFL.

Technically, Houston’s D is ranked second in the NFL, Pittsburgh’s is first (I’m only counting regular season rankings), but we all saw what Denver and their future hall-of-fame QB did to the Steelers this past Sunday, so…I’m putting Houston on top. The unit allowed only 286 passing yards per game and 96 yards per game on the ground.  Baltimore did score 29 points against the Texans last October in a 29 to 16 Houston loss, but that was before Houston ran off 7 straight victories where they went 6-0-1 against the spread.

As far as Baltimore is concerned, QB Joe Flacco just doesn’t inspire confidence.  Flacco’s 80.9 QB rating is close to Yates’s QB rating.  Not only that, but because Baltimore insists that Flacco is a good QB, they allow him to take chances on the field, unlike Yates who is kept on a short leash.  It means that Flacco has the chance of making more mistakes than Yates on Sunday.  Ravens’ RB Ray Rice is a monster of a runner and he no doubt could give the Texans’ D fits, but there will come a point in this game where Flacco will have to make a key decision.  I’ll be betting that he makes the wrong decision.

The brilliant Ray Lewis will be healthier in this game than he has been all season long and that will cause disruptions to Houston’s offense, but Baltimore’s D is much older than Houston’s.  Houston has the ability to pound at Baltimore’s defense for much of this game because their back-up to RB Arian Foster, Ben Tate, is very good.  Houston kicker Neil Rackers booted 4 field goals of 50+ yards this season.  Rackers gives Houston’s offensive coordinator the luxury to be conservative in this matchup.

I’ve got to go with the Houston Texans to cover the spread.  The Texans have momentum going into the game, a stronger defense than Baltimore’s, and an offensive philosophy that sets them up perfectly for a potential upset.  In fact, if you’re a brave football bettor, you should think about putting dollars on the Texans to win this game straight up.   

Pick:  Houston Texans to cover -7.5

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

When:  Jan. 8, 4:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  Green Bay -8, Total 52.5

Analysis:  Things could get rough for the Green Bay Packers in their quest for a second straight Super Bowl victory on Jan. 8.  The Packers face an opponent in the New York Giants who almost beat them in Week 13 (38 to 35), and who has won 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5.  The Giants are an 8 point dog Against The Spread versus Green Bay, but like the Ravens versus Texans game earlier in the day, I have to back the underdog to cover in this contest.

I’m not alone.  66% of football handicappers are taking the points when the Packers battle the Giants on Jan. 15.  That’s a big percentage of gamblers who believe that the Giants will cover the spread.  There a few reasons for this, but the main one has to do with the Giants’ defense.

The Giants have given up a total of 30 points in NYG’s last 3 games.  That includes allowing Atlanta, a team that averaged 25 points per game during the regular season, a total of 2 points in the Giants 24 to 2 Wildcard Round victory.  The Giants held Atlanta to a total of 247 yards.  I’m not expecting the G-Men to do the same thing to Green Bay on Sunday, but I am expecting them to keep Green Bay under control.

I am also expecting QB Eli Manning to exploit Green Bay’s less than stellar defensive backfield.  Eli torched GB for 347 yards and 3 TDs the first time that these two teams met.  I expect Eli to do the same if the Packers commit to stopping the Giants’ rushing attack that woke up against Atlanta with 172 yards on the ground.  Brandon Jacobs ran for 92 and Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 63 versus Atlanta last Sunday.  If either one of those guys produces a game akin to what they did in the Wildcard Round, then expect the G-Men to not only keep this game close but to also have a shot to win it all in the fourth quarter.

What of Green Bay, though?  The Packers are still one of the top teams in the NFL although they lost to Kansas City 19 to 14 in Week 15 and produced a less than stellar effort defensively versus against Detroit in Week 17.  The issue with Green Bay is that although their offense, led by a true future hall-of-fame QB in Aaron Rodgers, averages 35 points per game, tops in the league, GB’s D just isn’t very good. 

The Packers’ D allows 411 yards per game – that’s the worst in the league. Not only that, but the offense allows 22.4 points per game.  Green Bay plays like the Oregon Ducks from the Pac 10, run up a huge lead and then hope the defense doesn’t give up the entire lead before the clock runs out.

I don’t believe that Green Bay’s offense is that much better than the New York Giants’ offense at this point of the season. 
 
I believe that the New York Giants have a good shot of not only covering the spread but also of upsetting the Green Bay Packers on the road in this Pro Football Divisional Playoff Round game on Sunday.  Not only did Eli and the G-Men almost pull off the upset during the regular season but NYG’s running game has hit its stride and the Giants’ D has been playing exceptionally well.

I’m all over NYG to cover against GB on Jan. 15.

Pick:  New York Giants To Cover

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College Football National Title Game Pits Bama – LSU Rematch

College Football Championship Game

BCS National Championship Free Picks – LSU Hopes To Break Crimson Tide

The Superdome is going to be a pretty busy place this coming week, and one of the biggest reasons is the Allstate BCS Championship matchup between two SEC rivals. Top-ranked LSU was perfect this season, in large part thanks to the 9-to-6 victory they held over Alabama at mid-season in what was dubbed the “Game of the Century”. While the first matchup may not have lived up to the aforementioned hype (unless you’re big into “defense-porn”), the stakes for this game are much higher.

If you thought the home field advantage was pretty big when LSU hosted Alabama in their first meeting, then you might as well fork over your hard earned cash to the Tigers now because they’re literally playing a few blocks from campus. It should also help that LSU was one of the sturdier bets in all of college ball this season with a stingy defense and a surefire offense that covered with a 10-3 ATS record.

So why is Alabama favored? Well for one they have Heisman candidate Trent Richardson at their disposal, who most scouts point to as a Steven Jackson redux and while I’m not going to anoint him that high up on the pedestal, Richardson is a bankable talent. With 1,583 yards and 20 touchdowns this season I’m not breaking any news when I remind everyone he’s a force to be reckoned with. It also helps that the visiting team whenever Alabama and LSU butt heads is 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 meetings.

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. #1 LSU Tigers (13-0)
Monday, January 9th — Superdome, New Orleans — 8:30pm EST
NCAAF BCS Championship Line: Alabama -1.0 (40.0)

Familiarity is a key here, since Nick Saban and Les Miles know each other pretty damn well. It also doesn’t help LSU’s argument that they are 25-45-5 SU in their rivalry against Alabama, and not a whole lot of people have that much faith in Les Miles on the big stage. He’s kind of like the Andy Reid of college football and though that’s not meant as a blistering criticism, it’s also not the highest praise in the world.

LSU has both a very difficult and versatile offense to cover, and a defense as stingy as the Crimson Tide’s. The Tigers were able to maul opponents by double digit victories in each win this season…except against Saban’s boys.

That in itself should tell you everything you need to know about this matchup. The Tigers opened this matchup as the -1.0 point favorites, but the odds quickly shifted against them and have been posted as high as -1.5 in Vegas on the other side of the line. The sharps love the Crimson Tide in this matchup and for very good reason.

Both teams have amazing defenses, and I don’t need to dive in to the specific metrics or players to tell you that this is the truth. They are clearly the top two defenses in the country, but the difference here is that Alabama has a much more preferential type of offense that bettors love to back. Who doesn’t love a power running game and a smart sophomore quarterback like A.J. McCarron who doesn’t make mistakes combined with a stalwart defense?

The big bowls have been a testament to offense with teams averaging a whopping 38.5 points per game in the Sugar, Rose, Orange and Fiesta bowls respectively blowing most TOTALS out of the lakes and oceans. As for this game? Well I think nerves get the better of both teams and with these types of defenses, you can guess where I’m going in the over/under.

It’s not that I think that LSU is an undeserving first ranked team. Hell, I really wanted to see Oklahoma State in the BCS Championship game after the first stinker between the Tide and Tigers. This will be a defensive stand to watch if you’re in to that kind of thing, and while I think LSU has undoubtedly been the best team in college ball this season, the boys from Alabama simply have their number.

BCS Championship Free Pick – Alabama -1.0 (UNDER 40.0)

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NBA Betting Preview – Friday, January 6 Trio of Free Picks

NBA Weekend Betting Preview – January 6, 2012

The NBA betting weekend is hitting us hard and fast so here are a few free picks to get your juices flowing. While most people are waiting for the BCS National Title game or the NFL Wild Card weekend to kick-off, there’s money to be made on the NBA and these are some of the big ticket games you should ear mark early on.

ORLANDO MAGIC over Chicago Bulls — Friday, January 6th
Derrick Rose should’ve probably had his ego blown out like his ankles were when he faced Chris Paul, but the reigning MVP has bounced back in a big way to keep the Bulls relevant. Chicago is a comfy 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games but have been notorious stinkers against he NBA Southeast, where they’re a horrific 0-5 ATS in their last five games.

That bodes quite well for Orlando despite their tendency to play pretty poorly against the spread on Friday nights (1-6 ATS). Dwight Howard is doing a great job of deferring hyperbole surrounding his impending trade (to the Lakers) and he has flourished alongside the revived corpse of Hedo Turkoglu and the surging Ryan Anderson. The three of them are combining for a stunning 52.8 points per game.

If you’re going to take Orlando it’s because they’re 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS this season which is a great reason, but I hate big teams on a short rest. The Magic need the most out of their frontcourt and don’t have the depth on the bench with a guy like Brandon Bass gone. The Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games with one days rest.

If Rip Hamilton was healthy, I’d have no problem backing the Bulls, but the triumvirate built around Howard in the paint is too much for Chicago to deal with. I’m not wholly convinced Chicago has the size to be truly competitive. The public will feverishly back Chicago this Friday. Be smart and go the other way with the Magic.

Friday’s NBA Free Pick – Orlando over Chicago SU

L.A. CLIPPERS over Milwaukee Bucks — Saturday, January 7th
The Bucks are actually one of my favorite cover teams in the NBA because everyone sleeps on them, but this shortened season has caused the NBA betting scene to go completely haywire. Case in point: the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Clippers are a very sexy bet despite some brief struggles at the onset of the season. How can you resist Blake Griffin and Chris Paul? You can’t! Speaking of Paul, it’s obvious that he’s on a vengeful rampage this season to remind everyone just how damned good he is. Playing in a black hole like New Orleans made the majority of the public forget, as did Rose winning the MVP. Did you see what he did to Derrick Rose? Well imagine what he’s going to do to Greg Jennings.

Lob City just launched nuclear warfare on the Houston Rockets and are finding the kind of chemistry that leads to currency. If you’re not part of the Lob City population, you should be and this will be a perfect game to hop on board a team that is 2-1 ATS in their three home games this season.

Friday’s NBA Free Pick – LA Clippers over Milwaukee SU

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER over San Antonio Spurs
You have to know when to bet the Spurs, like if they’ve gone on a long road trip and you know Popovich is going to bench his best guys to give them rest. They’re a very fun team to watch as all their starters are averaging double-digits too, but Manu’s hurt and I’m out on this team as long as he is.

The oddsmakers are underestimating San Antonio for the most part because they’ve crumbled in the face of pressure for the past few years, and they’re older than most people would like. Going in to their Thursday matchup, they’re actually 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games but they’re also abysmal against the NBA Southeast division where they’re 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

Everyone seems to love harping on the supposed Westbrook-Durant feud that doesn’t actually exist. If being an incredible basketball player fused with a hyper competitive spirit is wrong, then I don’t want to be right. Westbrook is both young and electric, and sometimes that boils over but he and Durant have a great thing in Oklahoma City and they both know it. Neither one of them is going to sink a ship that could be headed for a league title.

Oklahoma City is a troubling bet because everyone is watching them with eagle eyes, including the bookmakers and sharps, making them an inflation target in NBA betting terms. That doesn’t mean you should shy away from them this weekend when they battle Tim Duncan. They need to shock some people back in to believing in them, and a much needed blowout over a franchise like San Antonio is the cow bell that the doctor ordered.

Friday’s NBA Free Pick – Oklahoma City over San Antonio SU

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