Stick with the Sox in MLB Betting Action

Teams that are clearly heading in the opposite direction right now do battle in the AL East for the second game of a three game set, as the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox wage MLB betting warfare against each other on Wednesday night.

The Red Sox hung on for an 8-5 victory on Tuesday night to stretch out their lead over Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card race to a pair of games. Boston is currently just a game behind the New York Yankees in the AL East, while the Rays are three back.

Tampa Bay Rays (44-32, -$354) vs. Boston Red Sox (47-31, +$671)

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 30th, 7:10 ET
Game Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV/Radio Broadcast: Sun Sports, MASN, XM

MLB Odds

Tampa Bay Rays              +1.5 -185      -103
(Matt Garza – R)
Boston Red Sox                -1.5 +165      -117
(Daisuke Matsuzaka – R)
Total                               9.5 O +105    9.5 U -125

RHP Matt Garza badly needs to return to the form that he had two years ago when he was named the MVP of the ALCS against these Red Sox in order to pitch the Rays to victory tonight.

Since seeing these Red Sox back on May 26th, Garza has watched his ERA balloon from 2.37 all the way up to the 4.10 that it sits at as we speak.

Yes, his 8-5 record does match his win total from a year ago and is only three shy of his 11-9 season the year that Tampa Bay went to the World Series, but Garza will be the first to tell you that these aren’t acceptable numbers.

He has allowed 13 homers in his 15 starts this year, which is on a pace to destroy the 25 home runs he gave up in all of ’09. Three of those bombs came in his last start against Boston.

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has been pitching out of his mind since that same point in May. Dice-K has only allowed six earned runs over his last 32.1 innings of work, which has dropped his ERA down to 4.50 from the 7.89 it was at in the middle of May.

The righty is 2-4 with a 4.05 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, but comes into this game with a 5-2 mark in his nine starts overall this year.

MLB Insider Tip: Tampa Bay is a woeful 20-54 in its L/74 trips to Fenway Park, and even though history is starting to right itself with that trend, there is no doubt that it is still worth noting.

It doesn’t matter how many injuries the Red Sox seem to incur. They always seem to find a way to keep firing back and winning games. Tampa Bay is clearly on the wrong side of a lot of close decisions right now, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another close game go against it in Beantown on Wednesday night.
Stick with the Sox in MLB betting action on Hump Day.

My MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka)

PGA Tour – 72 Hole Group Betting the AT&T National

Tiger Woods is entered to play at the AT&T National, but like Lee Westwood in Paris this week, El Tigre is too big of a favorite to be a part of any group in the 72 Hole Group Betting category.

The golf sportsbook odds makers have come up with 4 terrifically competitive groups without El Tigre, however.  Let’s take a look at each one of those groups right now!

PGA Tour:  AT&T National

Where:  Aronimink Golf Club, Newton Square, PA

When:  July 1st thru July 4th

TV:  The Golf Channel, CBS

Radio:  XM-Satellite

72 Hole Group Betting

Group A:  Sean O’Hair +275, Justin Rose +300, Ben Crane +325, Rickie Fowler +325, Robert Allenby +350

Analysis:  I really don’t need to (or want to because I might change my mind!) look at anybody else in this group after Ben Crane.  Crane finished 4th at The Players Championship, 7th at the Byron Nelson Championship and 3rd at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.  Even his 12th at the St Jude wasn’t bad.  He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but clear skies are expected this week and Crane is a great scrambler.  That means he should be able to get out of the rough and sand traps with ease.

Golf Bet:  Ben Crane +325

Group B:  Dustin Johnson +300, Bo Van Pelt +300, Scott Verplank +300, Ricky Barnes +300, Ryan Moore +300

Analysis:  Any one of the four golfers in this group could win it I’m going with Scott Verplank because he has 3 Top 5 finishes in his last 4 tournaments started.  He’s also ranked 4th in putting.  Barnes, 25th in scrambling and 21st in scoring average, and Moore, 2nd in total driving, are also logical contenders.  Johnson might be the lone throw out in this group as he doesn’t have the scrambling skills to take charge of Aronimink’s rough.

Golf Bet:  Scott Verplank +300

Group C:  Y.E. Yang +300, Vijay Singh +320, Fredrik Jacobson +325, David Toms +330, Jeff Overton +330
 
Analysis:  I actually feel pretty good about picking Jacobson in this group as he’s 3rd on the PGA Tour in scrambling.  Vijay and Yang haven’t been all that impressive in 2010.  Overton did finish 2nd at the Byron Nelson and 3rd at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.  So, he’s got a shot but he a terrible “scrambler”. Toms hasn’t scored a Top 10 finish yet this year.  It’s Jacobson all the way.

Golf Bet:  Fredrik Jacobson +325

Golf Bet D:  DJ Trahan +300, Steve Marino +300, JB Holmes +300, Bryce Molder +300, Vaughn Taylor +300

Analysis:  Aronimink’s rough could play a huge part in this tournament and no real golfer knows the course all that well.  So, Taylor, Marino and Trahan are throw outs in this group because not a single one of them are ranked in the Top 100 in the scrambling category.  Molder and Holmes are both ranked in the Top 20 in scrambling.  It’s a toss-up between the two, but I’m going with Holmes just because he took the time to play in a charity golf tournament on June 29th and actually won it to pick up $150,000.  Nice job, JB!  
 
Golf Bet:  JB Holmes +300

This week golfers head to Newton Square, PA for the AT&T National!  Log onto the golf sportsbook and bet the AT&T National!

Baseball Betting Odds – Nationals vs Braves

After a two month layoff, Jair Jurrjens makes his long awaited return to the mound for Atlanta.

But will it be enough to push the Braves past the Nationals in Wednesday night’s betting odds?

Jurrjens came into this season as one of the up and coming pitchers in baseball, after a spectacular 2009 season that saw him secure 14 wins with an impressive 2.60 ERA.

However it’s safe to say that 2010 has been a struggle, as his current record stands at 0-3, with the 24-year-old righty sporting a 6.03 ERA. Jurrjens hasn’t pitched since April 29 because of a hamstring injury.

Washington Nationals (34-44 SU, 42-36 R/L, 31-44-3 O/U) at
Atlanta Braves (45-33 SU, 40-38 R/L, 38-35-5 O/U)

Wednesday, June 30: 7:10 p.m.

Baseball Betting Odds:

Washington: +1 ½, -135, +155 (J.D. Martin-R)

Atlanta: -1 ½, +115, -175 (Jair Jurrjens-R)

Total Runs:

Over 9: -115

Under 9: -105

This will be just his sixth start of the season.

Opposing Jurrjens on the mound, will be little known righty J.D. Martin. With all the focus on Stephen Strasburg in this rotation, many baseball bettors have probably never even heard of Martin, but so far he’s been effective in limited appearances.

His current record stands at 0-3, but Martin is also sporting just a 3.03 ERA, meaning that if anything, he’ll be able to keep his team in this game.

As for these two teams offenses, the clear advantage goes to Atlanta. The Braves have one of the deepest and most talented lineup’s in the game, thanks to a nice mix of veterans and youngsters.

Second baseman Martin Prado leads this team with a .334 batting average, while Troy Glaus has belted 14 home runs. Chipper Jones, Melky Cabrera and Brian McCann add a veteran presence.

The Nationals on the other hand are really struggling with the sticks as of late. While they do get big home run production from the middle of their lineup (Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham have combined for 44 on the season), there just isn’t the depth in Washington needed to compete.

There isn’t a single regular starter in this lineup hitting over .300, with several including Dunn and centerfielder Nyjer Morgan batting below .275.

With the struggles of the Nationals lineup and the return of Jurrjens to the bump, there’s plenty of reason to back the Braves in your Wednesday night baseball bet.

Yes, there are still questions about Jurrjens, but he did pitch well in his minor league rehab starts, and there’s no doubt that after two months off he’ll be ready to go.

Expect him to pitch well into this start, and the Braves offense to do the rest.

Take Atlanta in a comfortable run line victory.

Aaron’s Pick: Braves -1 ½, +115

Wimbledon Betting at BetUS – Federer vs. the Field

London, England – Wimbledon quarterfinal betting is underway at BetOnline sportsbook and heating up as an eye-catching menu of odds and lines is served on all four matches, starting with the defending champion Roger Federer taking on dangerous floater, Tomas Berdych.

Roger Federer takes an 8-2 lifetime edge over Berdych into the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday but the 24-year-old Czech owns the most recent victory over le maestro; a three-set stunner in the R16 at the 2010 Miami Masters.

The result gives Berdych the 1-0 edge over Federer on the current term, an offshoot of which is quite a serious question: is it the more representative mark? And if so, what does that mean for the outcome of this match.

To put a finer point on it: Can Berdych replicate his Miami performance to orchestrate an even more significant win over Federer at the All England Club, on these very pristine lawns over which the maestro has ruled six seasons?

Federer is synonymous with tennis for legions of fans in the sport. His unprecedented success in the game, his dominance at Wimbledon and winning a record 16 Grand Slam titles has been a marvel to behold over the years.

Not for nothing is he considered a GOAT, and in turn, the player to beat. Aren’t bookies bartering with tennis odds for “Federer vs. the Field” in the Wimbledon outright betting market at BetOnline?

You bet this is still the lay of the grass court swing.

Lest everyone has forgotten, Federer is not only the defending champion at Wimbledon but a six-time Champion at this event (2003-2007 and 2009). Nadal stripped Federer of his Wimby crown in an epic final in 2008, and so far, he is the only player to have beaten Federer at the All England Club during this unflappable reign.

In recent years, Federer lost some of the awe he’d commanded before. And in recent months that awe has withered even further. Though still considered a major factor at the Grand Slam level – didn’t he just win as recently as the 2010 Australian Open, a record 16th Grand Slam crown.

The shine came off Federer because players that previously struggled against him started to show no fear, either taking it to him for the nigh-upset or even, at times, the outright win.

Since winning the Australian Open, Federer has gone on to lose to Baghdatis (Indian Wells R32), Berdych (Miami R16), Gulbis (Rome R32), Montanes (Estoril semis), Nadal (Madrid final), Soderling (French Open quarters) and Hewitt (Halle final).

At this year’s Wimbledon, Federer started his campaign slowly, only just averting the nigh upset in a five-set win over Alejandro Falla. He went on to struggle against an unheralded Ilija Bozoljac in four sets.

Federer survived both accounts, going on to clean up his act and winning his next two rounds without dropping a set. Yet, the first two rounds remain the talking point and has everyone in a nervous titter for his upcoming match.

In Berdych, Roger Federer comes up against a player largely held to be second only to him in raw, organic talent. Almost a mirror image if you will, manifesting across the net. The drama palpable [Insert dramatic shiver].

Indeed, everyone is anxious to see how Federer will deal with his reflection staring him down on Centre Court, Wednesday, June 30.

Bet on the Federer vs. Berdych quarterfinal match at BetOnline Sportsbook.

UFC 116 – The Wait is Finally Over

It feels like every fight leading up to UFC 116 has just been an appetizer.

I don’t care how good the matchups have been, or how stunning the upsets, the Brock Lesnar versus Shane Carwin fight blows them all out of the water.

It could be the anticipation as this fight was scheduled for UFC 106 but an illness to Lesnar – a bacterial infection in his intestinal track – left us die hard MMA fans hanging in the balance for well over a year.

But that’s all over now and on Saturday night from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada two giants will step into the ring for the chance to be called the undisputed heavyweight champion of the UFC.

UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin

• Date: July 3, 2010
• Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
• TV: Live on PPV at 10 pm ET

UFC 116 Betting Line: Brock Lesnar -155, Shane Carwin +125

Shane Carwin put himself in this position by winning the interim heavyweight championship bout over Frank Mir at UFC 111.

But it was the way he did it – knocking out Mir in the first round – that left no doubt in everyone’s mind that Lesnar vs. Carwin is without a doubt a battle between the two best heavyweights in the UFC and possibly the world.

It’s has been so long since we’ve seen Lesnar in the ring that it makes you wonder who really has the advantage come Saturday night. But then you look back on Lesnar’s fights and realize what an outstanding raw talent he is.

The man is like a mythical beast, a combination of enormous size, brute strength, and raw power that is unmatched in the sport. He came into the sport that he had no formal training in and became the most feared fighter in just over a year.

Saying this fight is big is the understatement of the year.

UFC 116 Betting Line: Yoshihiro Akiyama -235, Chris Leben +185

After much back and forth about whether or not Akiyama would take the fight against Chris Leben, the Japanese star has stepped up and agreed to take on Wanderlei Silva’s replacement.

Akiyama had obviously expressed some concern with such a late change of opponents as it was only learned a short time ago that Leben would be replacing Silva after "The Axe Murderer" pulled out due to injury.

Akiyama’s concerns are that he has to come up with a totally different game plan, one that he had been preparing for close to a year.

There is also the fact that he’s fighting a guy that doesn’t have the same name recognition as Silva, but as a fighter, you sometimes need to just step up and prove yourself.

Here is a full rundown of the UFC 116 card:

Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

Middleweight bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Welterweight bout: Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

Light Heavyweight bout: Poland Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar

Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer

Light Heavyweight bout: Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero

Preliminary card

Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Croatia Goran Reljic

Middleweight bout: Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch

Welterweight bout: Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz

Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Czech Republic Karlos Vemola

Wimbledon Tennis Betting Odds – Free Federer vs. Berdych Wimbledon ATP Pick

World No. 2 Roger Federer will take on world No. 13 Tomas Berdych on Wednesday at the third grand slam event of the season when the ATP singles portion of this year’s Wimbledon tournament moves into its quarterfinal round.

Avid tennis gamblers everywhere will get the scoop on both players’ along with a potentially-profitable free ATP betting pick.

With Wednesday’s action scheduled to get underway at 7 AM ET, let me get started.

ATP Betting Odds
Roger Federer -5½ -110
Tomas Berdych +5½ -130

Moneyline
Federer -800
Berdych +425
O/U
Over 37½ -130
Under 37½ -110

The Breakdown: Roger Federer looked absolutely fantastic in beating the snot out of Jurgen Melzer in the last round, winning 6-3, 6-2, 6-3. Nevertheless, Fed will have his hands full with the still-blossoming Tomas Berdych, who has really improved his mental play over the last year or so to consistently hang with the sport’s elite players.

Ranked 13th on the ATP World Tour, Berdych snapped an eight-match losing streak to Federer by handing the men’s all-time grand slam leader a 6-4, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (6) three-set loss at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami in March.

Unfortunately for Berdych, nearly every time he has faced Federer in a grand slam event, he has gone down like a sack of potatoes. Federer beat Berdych in straight sets at the 2006 French Open and 2006 Wimbledon while also beating the Czech Republic native in three sets at the 2008 Australian Open.

The good news for Berdych and his backers is the fact that he nearly beat Federer at last year’s Aussie Open, falling in a thrilling five-setter – after winning each of the first two sets.

Analysis: I really like Tomas Berdych and I think he’s going to give Federer all he can handle – before ultimately falling to the game’s best shot-maker, likely in four sets at the minimum.

I like Federer to narrowly cover the 5½-game spread here as a -110 favorite, which means  tennis bettors  that really like Fed to win can back him at a respectable -800 for the Money Line win.

In addition to playing Federer to win this match, I also like the Over 37½ games as the last time these two met, the match played to a whopping 51 total games.

Expert ATP Pick: Roger Federer in Five Sets/Over 37½ Total games

Wimbledon Quarterfinal Betting – Federer vs. Berdych

London, England – Federer’s path to the Wimbledon semis takes him through dangerous floater Tomas Berdych. Federer, the defending champion (six-time Wimbledon titlist) may well remember their last meeting at the Miami Masters R16 where the tenacious play of Berdych and a brain cramp by Federer combined to hand Federer his first defeat to Berdych in six years.

Lifetime, Federer owns a convincing 8-2 mark over Berdych but the 24-year-old Czech on the back of the win in Miami owns the 1-0 edge on 2010.

In market terms, Roger Federer is still the favourite to win outright despite trailing 0-1 on 2010. After all, Federer is the King of Grass, to many the very epitome of “Tennis,”and a proven all round champion.

Indeed, the match is on his racquet. He is the player to beat not only in this match but also in the tournament proper. Question is can Berdych to topple the great Federer on his beloved grass patch at the All England Club.

The answer is a resounding, YES. Whether he will actually accomplish the feat is another matter entirely, the answer ringing with less conviction.

Tennis Betting Line:
Roger Federer -5½ -105 -800 37½ O -135 U -105
Tomas Berdych +5½ -135 +425 37½ O -135 U -105

First Set Line:
Roger Federer -500 9½ O -170 U +130
Tomas Berdych +300 9½ O -170 U +130

Second Set Line:
Roger Federer -450 9½ O -170 U +130
Tomas Berdych +275 9½ O -170 U +130

Third Set Line:
Roger Federer -400 9½ O -170 U +130
Tomas Berdych +250 9½ O -170 U +130

Match Set Line:
Roger Federer -2½ +115 3½ O -140 U Ev
Tomas Berdych +2½ -155 3½ O -140 U Ev

Match Time: 07:00 AM Eastern Time (12:00 Local Time) Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Berdych reached the semi-finals of the French Open for the first time in his career earlier this month and that run could prove defining for the Czech’s bid at Wimbledon. I have always believed Berdych’s game, not unlike Federer’s, is best suited for grass court glory. And what glory could be more profound than winning Wimbledon, a prestigious event that is for most but a quest for the Holy Grail.

In reaching the semis at Roland Garros and coming oh so close to the finale and potential Grand Slam glory, Berdych received a valuable lesson on what it takes to become a great champion. He is better equipped today than he has ever been before to deal with the magnitude of the occasion before him.

Last year at the Australian Open, Berdych nigh upset Federer in the R16 in straight sets. In the third set, at 3-3 Berdych (on serve) sent a slice backhand wide and smashed an easy volley into the net to give Fed the important 4-3 lead. It was all the Swiss needed to start a dramatic comeback from the brink to win 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. The one missed shot was clearly enough for Berdych to unravel mentally.

Berdych has matured considerably since and I don’t believe he will anymore suffer from such costly hangovers. He is in the best position right now to beat Federer and make a significant breakthrough on a Grand Slam stage. If Berdych beats Federer, watch him go all the way to the final.

Of course, this is not to suggest beating Federer is going to be easy. On the contrary, Federer is nothing but a great champion and he will fight to the bitter end, leave no question unanswered. Keep in mind, Federer to win outright is still the favoured outcome in the market and the expected result. But for my money, I like the Czech to win this battle.

Tennis Free Picks: Berdych in five sets

Wimbledon Quarterfinal Betting – Nadal and Soderling Reprise Rivalry

London, England – Ever since the draw was released, there was always the possibility Wimbledon would deliver a rematch of the French Open final between Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling in the quarterfinal round. Well, here we are in the round of the last eight, tennis betting markets at the ready, and what is before us but what we had hoped for, and perhaps secretly believed would be: Nadal vs. Soderling at the All England Club.

Avid tennis bettors saw this matchup unfold at the French Open two years in a row. Last year, Soderling made headlines when he beat Nadal in the R16. This year, Nadal avenged that loss in the French Open final to reclaim his beloved crown.

There is more to this billing than the encounters in Paris. Some of you might remember the dramatic match they played in 2007 on these very hallow grounds of Wimbledon. A soggy, rain-interrupted R32 clash that spanned three days and five sets until finally Nadal emerged victorious 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(7), 4-6, 7-5.

Overall, their head-to-head record stands 4-2 to Nadal, which includes a 1-0 edge on Soderling in 2010. There is also the victory over Soderling at the Exhibition event in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. If added to the score would make Nadal’s mark a stronger 2-0 over Soderling because it includes both hard and clay court wins.

Certainly, Nadal is the “on paper” favourite to win outright and has enough of an edge over Soderling to make him a good bet. But some experts believe Soderling is the man to beat!

Tennis Betting Line:

Robin Soderling +3 -130 +135 41½ O -125 U -115

Rafael Nadal -3 -110 -175 41½ O -125 U -115

First Set Line:

Robin Soderling +125 9½ O -180 U +140

Rafael Nadal -165 9½ O -180 U +140

Second Set Line:

Robin Soderling +115 9½ O -175 U +135

Rafael Nadal -155 9½ O -175 U +135

Third Set Line:

Robin Soderling +115 9½ O -170 U +130

Rafael Nadal -155 9½ O -170 U +130

Match Set Line:

Robin Soderling +1½ -150 3½ O -225 U +175

Rafael Nadal -1½ +110 3½ O -225 U +175

Match Time: 09:00 AM Eastern Time (15:00 Local Time) Wednesday June 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Nadal is trading at -175 to win outright, a rather conservative albeit firm favourite price. Soderling is a modest +135 underdog. An unassuming puppy he is not because his price tag is just shy of Evens, which makes him a viable bet to win this match.

There is also the fact that many are tipping Soderling as a future Grand Slam champion and World No.1 adding credibility to his market value.

Pushing this refrain strongly is Mats Wilander, who, if you ask me, would of course make such claims about his compatriot. Smacks of national pride if you ask me. I am not so sure on either score but it isn’t about that right now, is it.

The question is can Soderling upset Nadal to go into the Wimby semis for the first time in his career.

I cannot honestly discredit his shot. He certainly can and he definitely believes he can. Tennis bettors looking to back Soderling could do no worse than taking Sodman on the money line.

If I were playing house money, I would still back Nadal. Because not only is he a proven champion and as a champion, he deserves the benefit of the doubt but also, he has twice beaten Soderling this season.

If there were any demons left from his loss to the Swede in 2009, they have to be exorcised by now. Mentally and on experience, Nadal has the slight edge over Soderling and that makes him the better play in my mind.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in four sets

Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting – Djokovic vs. Lu

London England – This was supposed to be a mouth-watering clash between Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick but a five set win by Yen-Hsun Lu over A-Rod in the R16 took care of that nicely.

Now it is the Djokovic vs. Lu billing that is on the Wimbledon betting card at BetOnline Sportsbook.

A matchup that is more likely than not going to coast under the radar on Wednesday, in the wake of three more eye-catching matchups featuring heavyweights Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, which isn’t the way the Serbian starlet likes it – the attention ham that he is.

What might he like though is if all three heavyweights crashed in the quarters, leaving him as the only talking point in the top five to win the coveted Wimbledon title.

Tennis Betting Line:

Novak Djokovic -5½ -140 -900 36½ O -115 U -125

Yen Hsun Lu +5½ Ev +450 36½ O -115 U -125

First Set Line:

Novak Djokovic -500 9½ O -160 U +120

Yen Hsun Lu +300 9½ O -160 U +120

Second Set Line:

Novak Djokovic -400 9½ O -150 U +110

Yen Hsun Lu +250 9½ O -150 U +110

Third Set Line:

Novak Djokovic -400 9½ O -150 U +110

Yen Hsun Lu +250 9½ O -150 U +110

Match Set Line:

Novak Djokovic -2½ +115 3½ O -110 U -130

Yen Hsun Lu +2½ -155 3½ O -110 U -130

Match Time: 07:00 AM Eastern Time (12:00 Local Time) Wednesday June 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Djokovic is a solid favourite at -900 to win outright, a firm -500 favourite to take the first set and a good bet at -400 to take the second and third sets. Djokovic is decidedly the “on paper” favourite to win outright and he should win this match because of it really.

However, it is not a secret he has had some bizarre losses this season, for example to Olivier Rochus in Miami. In fact, Rochus almost beat him at Wimbledon in the first round but a fortuitous break in the play to close the roof to accommodate night play was all Djokovic needed to collect himself and comeback to win in five sets.

Yen-Hsun Lu can trouble Djokovic. His game is not unlike Rochus’s in that he takes the ball early. Importantly, Djokovic has never played against him.

Does that make Lu a tempting bet in the market?

Certainly does. At +450 to win outright, he isn’t exactly priced out of the market. Nor is he priced out of each set market either.

He is a reasonable puppy to take the first set at +300, and less so to take the second and third sets at +250.

A win by Lu would be a huge upset, make no mistake about it. And that makes it a long shot bet. The only way it can happen is over a five-set affair –so most would have it.

Lu would have to beat Djokovic the way he beat Roddick, patiently and tenaciously.

There will be no blowing Djokovic off court. If anything, it would be Novak Djokovic blowing Lu out of Wimbledon. That is the expected result.

Hard to imagine anything but a Djokovic win here but as Wimbledon has been upset riddled this year, so anything can happen theoretically.

Tennis Free Picks: Djokovic in five sets

Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting – Murray vs. Tsonga

London England – British hopeful Andy Murray has been solid in Wimbledon, so much so that the buzz and hype that perpetually surrounds him seems to have picked up pace once again in spite of his abysmal body of work (by his lofty standards) this term. Worse yet, bookies are on board, listing him as the supreme favourite over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in tennis betting markets, to win outright and advance into the Wimby semis.

What if this solid form, so-called “flawless” advance, into the quarters is deceiving.

Whom has he faced off against to reach the quarters but journeyman player Jan Hajek, veteran Jarkko Nieminen, slumping Gilles Simon and inexperienced Sam Querrey. If anything, the course to the quarters was a cakewalk. He hasn’t been tested and it is no wonder he advances, so “flawlessly” over such middleweights (at best) in the game, without dropping a set.

Tsonga is a supreme talent in the eyes of many an all-court player who can play both offensive and defensive tennis sublimely. His run to the quarters has been less convincing than that of Murray’s especially as he too faced relatively straightforward opposition. But that could be down to the fact that Tsonga opted not to warm-up his game for Wimbledon, skipping all tune-up events. Furthermore, because Tsonga has been tested and in spite of it, managed to persevere he might be better prepared for a royal battle than Murray is.

Tennis Betting Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +4½ -110 +275 39½ O -135 U -105
Andy Murray -4½ -130 -450 +275 39½ O -135 U -105

First Set Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +225 9½ O -180 U +140
Andy Murray -350 +225 9½ O -180 U +140

Second Set Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +200 9½ O -180 U +140
Andy Murray -300 9½ O -180 U +140

Third Set Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +200 9½ O -180 U +140
Andy Murray -300 9½ O -180 U +140

Match Set Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga +1½ +140 3½ O -160 U +120
Andy Murray -1½ -180 3½ O -160 U +120

Match Time: 09:00 AM Eastern Time (15:00 Local Time) Wednesday June 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Murray just edges Tsonga lifetime 2-1. The pair has met three times on hard courts with Murray winning in Metz (2007) and Rogers Cup (2009). Tsonga’s only victory over Murray came in 2008 in the first round of the Australian Open when Tsonga cruised all the way to the final (l. to Djokovic).

In spite of their tight head-to-head record and rather meagre six-spots-gap in ranking (Murray is ranked No.4 and Tsonga No.10), bookies deign to give Murray a significant edge in the market, listing him as the -450 favourite to win outright while offering Tsonga as the +275 puppy.

Methinks Tsonga will be more vested in this match than the market indicates. Tennis bettors looking to back Tsonga could do no worse than backing this seriously talented Frenchman to victory and well he might come through. Tsonga is a ham and loves the spotlight. He won’t be intimidated by Murray, who has home edge going for him. In fact, watch if Tsonga doesn’t win the crowd over or at least in some part.

Andy Murray is the popular bet. Long has there been talk about Grand Slam potential. Wimbledon is as reasonable as the other majors are where he could make this breakthrough.

However, Murray has choked under the weight of these expectations, and nowhere more so than at Wimbledon where there is the added expectation to end Britain’s 70-something year drought on the Grand Slam stage. That is a lot of pressure to place on a young player and perhaps it is no wonder Murray has come up short.

Importantly, there have been no signs that he is ready to handle this pressure. At least none that I have noticed. He has been solid in reaching the quarters but I don’t know that is enough to convince me he is on good enough form to beat Tsonga. I am not saying he cannot win. Certainly, he can. But whether he will, I am not so sure. I would rather back the more confident Tsonga with the better price tag, if you don’t mind.

Tennis Free Picks: Tsonga in five sets

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