ATP Acapulco Semis: Ferrero and Ferrer bid for the final

Acapulco, Mexico—Juan Monaco took out top seed Fernando Verdasco in the quarters yesterday to book his spot in the semis. He will next face Juan Carlos Ferrero for a spot in the final. Second seed Fernando Gonzalez is the highest seed still alive in the tournament after he survived Eduardo Schwank in the quarters. Next up for Gonzalez is David Ferrer.

With the semi-final line-up in Acapulco set, the market released, here is a look at the matchups and how they might pan out.

Tennis Betting Line:

Juan Monaco +2 -125 +125 22½ O -115 U -125
Juan Carlos Ferrero -2 -115 -165 22½ O -115 U -125

First Set Line: Juan Monaco +110 Juan Carlos Ferrero -150

Match Time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Friday February 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Argentinean Juan Monaco took out Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. The victory was an upset but it wasn’t as surprising as you might think. Monaco was in his third clay-court event and in-form whereas Verdasco was making his first appearance on clay, with only one-match win under his belt. It was bound to happen. That said don’t take anything away from Monaco. He won deservedly so. Juan Carlos Ferrer has been simply on fire during this short South American clay-court swing, winning two titles back-to-back. He is only two victories away from seizing a third consecutive title.

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Not surprisingly, with both players in-form this is a tight matchup. Ferrero is the favourite to win, listed at -165 while Monaco is a mere +125 puppy. Seems to me there is value in both camps. Fans should back their man but if you are a neutral like me, then go with the favourite.

Tennis Free Picks: Ferrero in three sets

Tennis Betting Line:

David Ferrer -115 22½ O -120 U -120
Fernando Gonzalez -125 22½ O -120 U -120

First Set Line: David Ferrer -120 Fernando Gonzalez -120

Match Time: 10:00 PM Eastern Time Friday February 26, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez will battle for a spot in the final tonight. Gonzalez and Ferrer are offered on a tight market with Gonzalez marginally favoured over Ferrer at -125 to -115. Gonzalez however has looked shaky in Acapulco. He has been winning matches but the manner in which he has been winning is concerning, especially because he struggled and against lesser opponents. I don’t think he can squeak by Ferrer with such inconsistent play. Ferrer is too good a competitor and his equal in calibre and quality. Ferrer has looked much better in Acapulco and I would go so far as to recommend him over Gonzalez in this match.

Tennis Expert Picks: Ferrer in straight sets

Barclay’s Dubai Tennis Championships Final: Djokovic vs. Youzhny

Dubai, UAE—Top seed Novak Djokovic has punched at his weight class to negotiate a path into the Barclay‘s Dubai Tennis Championships. That he has reached the final is a relief for tournament organizers that watched as the carefully assembled draw fell apart on sub-standard performances by some of the top seeds.

Namely Andy Murray, who not only fell to Tipsarevic on the back of a poor effort in the second round but added insult to injury when, with a backhanded jibe he claimed, he didn’t care about his loss. Apparently, defeat here wasn’t the end of the world because events of this nature are an opportunity to experiment and practise different tactics.

Dubai organizers that paid Murray handsomely for attending the event (requisite $1 million+ guaranteed fee to turn up) and put him up in lap of luxury in a £2,300 a night duplex suite at the 7-star Burj al Arab hotel since arriving in the Gulf a week ago were not too pleased with the Scott let us just say. Justifiably so.

They expected a lot more from the third seed, at the very least a more concentrated effort to reach the latter stages of the tournament. Such scandalous disinterest and disregard for what he would consider mundane (over a mil on the table are you serious???) doesn’t breed respect for the Scot nor will it win him any fans methinks. Think you he might be getting an invite next year? I am going to hazard a no.

Thankfully, Djokovic has taken his commission in Dubai seriously and he reaches the finale with aplomb. He is set to take on Mikhail Youzhny for the title in what should be a very interesting match. The market certainly is so.

Tennis Betting Line: Mikhail Youzhny +190 Novak Djokovic -275

First Set Line: Mikhail Youzhny +175 Novak Djokovic -225

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Saturday February 27, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Djokovic enters this match as the -275 favourite to win outright and the -225 favourite to take the first set. He is the defending champion, the newly minted world No.2 and in good-from this season. Tennis bettors could not ask for a better recommendation. Youzhny, however, is a dangerous threat to Djokovic.

The Russian is capable of vexing Djokovic, if not outright beating him. In fact, he beat him only a few weeks ago in Rotterdam in the semis 7-6(5), 7-6(6). Lifetime, Youzhny and Djokovic are 3-3 but the Russian has the1-0 edge on him in 2010. Trading at +190 to win outright and +175 to take the first set, Youzhny is a value play. Question is can he repeat his Rotterdam performance or will Djokovic have his revenge. Seems to be there is value whichever way you slice this match.

For my part, and I am not the biggest Djokovic fan I will admit, I am strangely rooting for him to win. If only to restore back, some of the faith lost in the top five by Murray’s selfish behaviour and poor representation.

Tennis Free Picks: Djokovic in three sets > > Sign up NOW!

NFL Combine Betting – Cash In On Over/Under Props Odds

The 2010 NFL season may be a thing of the past, but avid pro football betting enthusiasts can still get their fill of pro football wagering action with the start of Saturday’s annual NFL combine.

Thanks to the ingenious oddsmakers at BetOnline.com – and the clever props odds they have cooked up for this year’s combine – pro football gamblers everywhere have several entertaining opportunities to increase the NFL betting bankroll.

This look at the NFL Odds surrounding the top three combine events and my analysis on each event should go a long way toward helping pro football bettors put some offseason money in their respective pockets.

With that said – and the combine just hours away – let me get started.

Most Bench Presses by Any Player

Over 38.5 -120
Under 38.5 -120

The bench press is a test of strength where players lift 225 pounds as many times as they can. What the NFL scouts are also looking for is endurance. Anybody can do a max one time, but what the bench press tells the pro football scouts is how often the athlete frequented his college weight room for the last 3-5 years.

Analysis: Last year, offensive lineman Louis Vasquez, a guard for Texas Tech, was the only player to top 38 bench presses, reaching 39 reps while defensive lineman Taylor Terrance was next in line with 37. In 2008 only Jake Long and Vernon Gholston approached this year’s 38.5-rep O/U total, with each first round pick pumping out 37 repetitions at 225 pounds.

The unofficial combine bench press record of 51 is held by former Eastern Kentucky defensive tackle Justin Ernest (1999). The next six best scores, all which exceed 41 repetitions, were all recorded by offensive and defensive linemen.

This year, I think several players have the chance to top the 38.5 repetition O/U total, including Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, Trent Williams, Dan Williams, and probably the most recognizable name, defensive lineman Terrence Cody. 

I like the Over here pro football betting fans.

NFL Expert Picks: Over 38.5 Bench Presses

Best 40-Yard Dash Time By Any Player

Over 4.31 Seconds -120
Under 4.31 Seconds -120

The 40-yard dash is the marquee event at the combine. It’s kind of like the 100-meters at the Olympics: It’s all about speed, explosion and watching skilled athletes run great times. These athletes are timed at 10, 20 and 40-yard intervals. What the scouts are looking for is an explosion from a static start.

Analysis: Last year, three players ran under 4.31, as wide receiver Johnny Knox ran a blistering 4.25, wideout Deon Butler ran a 4.26 and another wide receiver, Darius Heyward Bey ran a 4.3 flat. In 2008, current Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson ran an all-time best 4.24.

This year, I think several players have a chance to eclipse 4.31 seconds, including Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford, USC safety Taylor Mays and diminutive Kansas State wideout Brandon Banks a former nationally-recognized high school sprinter who has ran a 10.2 in the 100 meters and 21.2 in the 2000 meters.

4.31 seconds is fast NFL gamblers, but I genuinely believe at least one player will break the 4.3-second O/U total here.

NFL Expert Picks: Under 4.31 Seconds

Highest Vertical Jump by Any Player

Over 42.5 inches -105
Under 42.5 inches -135

The vertical jump is all about lower-body explosion and power. The athlete stands flat-footed and they measure his reach. It is important to accurately measure the reach, because the differential between the reach and the flag the athlete touches is his vertical jump measurement.

Analysis: No matter how hard I tried, finding out information on past vertical jump winners and statistics were like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Nevertheless, I’m going to pick the Under in this wager simply because there aren’t very many people on the planet that can jump over 42.5 inches.

As a matter of fact, unless you’re a gifted basketball player, jumping over 40 inches from a standing position is a bit of a feat, so I’m going to play the Under here.

NFL Expert Picks: Under 42.5 inches

Pro Football Betting Odds-40-Yard Dash NFL Combine Comparison Odds

The age-old saying that ‘speed kills’ apparently holds no legs in the world of professional football as NFL General managers across the league search for the fastest, play-making athletes anywhere.

Thanks to the clever oddsmakers at BetOnline.com – and the ingenious 40-yard dash comparison odds they have cooked up for the 2010 NFL Combine, pro football gamblers across the globe have another way to increase the NFL seasonal betting bankroll.

With the annual combine just a day away, let me break down the entertaining matchups and provide pro football betting fans with my prediction on the outcome of each pairing.

The 40-yard dash is the marquee event at the combine. It’s value is similar to that of the 100-meters at the Olympics. It’s all about speed and explosion and watching skilled athletes run great times. Each player is timed at 10, 20 and 40-yard intervals. What the scouts are looking for is an explosion from a static start.

Fastest 40-Yard Dash Tebow vs. McCoy
Tim Tebow +105
Colt McCoy -145

Analysis: This pairing, featuring two of the biggest names in football the last four years, is going to be very close, but in the end, I’m going with Tim Tebow to narrowly best McCoy here – and I do mean just barely.

I expect Tebow and McCoy to both run somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.6 to 4.9 seconds, but Tebow’s will be closer to the lower end of 4.7 while McCoy comes in just fractions of a second later toward the higher end of 4.7 or 4.8.

One thing’s for sure. As much rushing as Tebow has done throughout his college career, he should be the more polished runner.

NFL Free Picks: Tim Tebow

Fastest 40-Yard Dash N Suh vs. G McCoy
Ndamukong Suh -120
Gerald McCoy -120

Analysis: Suh, a defensive tackle out of Nebraska and McCoy a defensive tackle for Oklahoma, are both rumored to be going in the top five – and it’s easy to see why – both are ‘freaks of nature’.

Suh, has been heralded as the top overall pick in this ear’s draft while McCoy, a first-team All-American in each of the last two seasons, is also expected to be a top five pick.

Suh, stands 6-4 and weighs 305 pounds while McCoy is just a bit lighter, weighing in at 298 pounds while also standing 6-4.

I like Gerald McCoy here with Suh running a 40-yard dash somewhere in the neighborhood of the 4.91 seconds he admits he runs in the 40 while McCoy checks in just under 4.91, likely in the mid-to-high 4.8-second range.

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NFL Expert Picks: Gerald McCoy

Fastest 40-Yard Dash J Dwyer vs. R Mathews
Jonathan Dwyer -120
Ryan Matthews -120

Analysis: Dwyer, a running back out of the Georgia Tech, that was the 2008 ACC Player of the Year, is another speedy player that has already recorded a 4.48 seconds in the 40 and 10.8 in the 100 meters while in high school that made him the second fastest runner in the state.

I really like running back Ryan Mathews, the 220-pound Fresno State bowling ball rusher who made a big name for himself the last two seasons. Unfortunately, this race isn’t real fair with Dwyer behind a lot faster and more elusive than Mathews, who reportedly runs a 4.5 in the 40.

If Dwyer ran a 4.4 in high school, then he should at least hover in the 4.3-second range while Mathews clocks a very impressive 4.5.

NFL Expert Picks: Jonathan Dwyer

Fastest 40-Yard Dash J Best vs. CJ Spiller
Jahvid Best -110
CJ Spiller -130

Analysis: This matchup is undoubtedly the best 40-yard dash pairing on the board – and one of the most difficult selections as well.

Word has it that Cal running back Jahvid Best runs a 4.32 40-yard dash I can certainly believe that after watching him leave numerous defenders totally flat-footed as he blew past them.

Unfortunately for Best, he will be facing arguably the fastest collegiate player in the nation in speedy running back CJ Spiller, another player who runs in the 4.3-second range.

I love underdogs with something to prove and I think Jahvid Best has quite a sizable chip on his shoulders, which is why I say play Best for the upset here.

NFL Expert Picks: Jahvid Best

Fastest 40-Yard Dash E Berry vs. J Haden
Eric Berry -120
Joe Haden -120

Analysis: Berry, a safety out of Tennessee is so fast that he could play both, cornerback or safety. The 5-11-inch hard-hitter reportedly runs a 4.3 40-yard dash, but I’m think 4.4 or even 4.5 is probably a bit closer to his true speed.

Haden, a 5-11 cornerback out of the University of Florida also runs in the 4.4-second range and is my pick to win this matchup here simply because he carries about 10 less pounds on his frame than the heavier, harder-hitting Berry does.

NFL Expert Picks: Joe Haden

Delray Beach 2nd Round Betting Picks: Blake eyes quarters

Delray Beach, Florida – James Blake is set to square off with Robin Haase in the Delray Beach second round today while Ivo Karlovic takes on Daniel Brands for a spot in the quarters. Here is a look at the online betting market currently underway at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tennis Betting Line :

James Blake -4 -115 -500 21½ O -145 U +105
Robin Haase +4 -125 +300 21½ O -145 U +105

First Set Line: James Blake -330 Robin Haase +215

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: James Blake survived a three-set marathon over Taylor Dent in the opening round of his Delray Beach campaign. The match was expected to be tough for both players not only because they were compatriots and friends but also because both had been without a win since the Aussie Open in January. Blake came out on top with the 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 win.

Next up for Blake is Dutchman Robin Haase who advanced into the second round with a 7-6(4), 7-(0) victory over Robert Kendricks. It will be the first meeting between Blake and Haase. Blake has the indisputable on paper edge over Haase, hence his solid favourite odds at -500. Haase ranks beyond the top 300 (No.364) and arrived in Florida with a 1-3 mark on the season. Suffice it to say, he is the clear underdog, trading at +300. The match is on Blake’s racquet for many reasons, one of which is he has home edge. He is also a better player than his current No.50 ranking would indicate. Blake should win this match in a narrow straight sets victory methinks.

Tennis Free Picks: Blake in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Daniel Brands +3½ -145 +325 23 O -135 U -105
Ivo Karlovic -3½ +105 -550 23 O -135 U -105

First Set Line: Daniel Brands +225 Ivo Karlovic -350

Match Time: 07:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: It will be the first time Daniel Brands and Ivo Karlovic go head-to-head when they collide in the Delray Beach second round. Karlovic is the clear favourite at -550 to win outright while Brands is the distinct underdog at +325. Karlovic is off to a solid start this season and improved to 10-4 when he beat Philipp Petzschner of Germany yesterday. Brands meanwhile recorded his first win on the season when he took out veteran Sebastien Grosjean to earn his place opposite Karlovic.

The tipping point in this matchup is form. Karlovic is on good form and that should set him up well against Brands. There is little to suggest Brands would upset Karlovic, his win over Grosjean should not be taken out of context. Grosjean is a part-time player who clearly was rusty and showed it against Brands. Karlovic is in top match playing form with three quarters on the season at Doha, Zagreb and Memphis as well as a R16 appearance at the Aussie Open.

Tennis Free Picks: Karlovic in straight sets

WTA Acapulco Quarterfinal Picks: Dulko and Suarez Navarro battle for semis

Acapulco, Mexico – Gisela Dulko and Carla Suarez Navarro are set to collide in the quarters, a spot in the Abierto Mexicana Telcel semis on the line. Elsewhere, Canada’s Sharon Fichman will battle Edina Gallovits for a spot in the semis. BetOnline has rolled out odds on the women’s Abierto Mexicana quarters so without further ado, let us break them down.

Tennis Betting Line:

Carla Suarez Navarro -130 21½ O -105 U -135
Gisela Dulko -110 21½ O -105 U -135

Match Time: 04:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

First Set Line: Carla Suarez Navarro -120 Gisela Dulko -120

Tennis Betting Verdict: BetOnline bookies have released a tight betting line on this match, evinced by the fact that both players are thrust into the favourite plane, a hairbreadth apart. Suarez Navarro is marginally favoured at -130 over Dulko at -110. The absence of the game handicap is telling as well.

Carla Suarez Navarro and Gisela Dulko are clay-court princesses. Surface edge is cancelled out as both can grind on the red stuff. It is their first-ever meeting so we don’t have their measure against one another to resort to, which makes this a bit of a tossup. What we do have is their form on the season. Both have had good starts but Navarro suffered a slight dip last week when she was dumped in Bogota in the first round, by a no name, mind. Dulko, on the other hand, was a semi-finalist.

Whichever way you slice it, there is value in this match. On paper, very little separates these two and the matter is further confounded by the fact that both have good starts on the season. If there were an indication, performance in Bogota last week might be that. Of course, Navarro could have had a bad week, last week and turn things around here. But the way I see it is that Dulko has the slight edge on form so she is my pick to win outright.

Tennis Free Picks: Dulko in three sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Sharon Fichman -135 21½ O -105 U -135
Edina Gallovits -105 21½ O -105 U -135

First Set Line: Sharon Fichman -130 Edina Gallovits -110

Match Time: 05:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Fichman has punched above her weight class in Acapulco to reach the quarters. Bookies have been given her the slight edge in the market and so far she has come through on those odds. Once again, she is the slight favourite over Edina Gallovits of Romania to win outright, listed at -135 while Gallovits is served up at -105. There is little to support the market cast where Fichman is concerned. She arrived in Acapulco 1-5 on the season with little experience at this level. Yet she has proven her worth – albeit in a watered down field in Acapulco. I am not sure she can continue her Cinderella run though. Gallovits just might be her match.

Tennis Free Picks: Gallovits in three sets

WTA Acapulco Quarterfinal Picks: Venus Williams favored to clean up

Acapulco, Mexico – Venus Williams is the odds-on-favourite to clean up in Acapulco. It must help her odds that she is competing in a relatively watered down field. At world No. 5, Venus Williams outclasses the field, including the bunch of seeds that descended on Acapulco: starting with Agnes Szavay, the No.2 seed, ranked closest at No.32 and finishing with No.8 seed Polona Hercog, ranked No.59. Indeed, Venus should clean up in such a field without too much trouble.

Venus Williams is taking on Laura Pous Tio (who?) in the quarters, a qualifier that punched above her weight class to negotiate her place opposite the great American. I am sure she is thinking what a reward to get for all that effort. Elsewhere, Agnes Szavay and Polona Hercog will battle for a spot in the semis.

Tennis Betting Line:

Polona Hercog +3 -115 +140 21 O -110 U -130
Agnes Szavay -3 -125 -180 21 O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Polona Hercog +110 Agnes Szavay -150

Match Time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Agnes Szavay enters this match as the market favourite, carrying a price of -180 to win outright. Her price is well set and tennis bettors looking to the Hungarian to victory should have no objection to her market value. Recommending Szavay’s odds on the win is an ok start to the season that includes a recent appearance in the Paris quarters (l. to Melanie Oudin).

Slovenian Polona Hercog is after winning a lower circuit title in Cali (clay) two weeks ago; however, in Bogota last week she failed to build on that moment, falling in the first round to a no name. She has turned things around in Acapulco but it remains to be seen whether she can upset Szavay today and extend her run.

Tennis Free Picks: Szavay in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line:

Venus Williams -6½ -115 -2500 18 O -120 U -120
Laura Pous Tio +6½ -125 +900 18 O -120 U -120

Match Time: 07:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Venus Williams is an untouchable favourite at -2500 to win outright over Laura Pous Tio, listed at large +900 odds. The market cast is completely one-sided. The betting trend should be equally so. I can’t imagine anyone betting against Venus Williams with any confidence; perhaps only risk takers looking to make big returns would but even they would have to accept there is about a 0.01% chance of such a risk paying out. If you can play with such odds without being rattled by a loss, sure bet on Pous Tios. Cooler heads should look at Venus to win outright and cover the spread at -6 ½ -115 and the Under 18 -120.

Tennis Free Picks: Venus in straight sets

Acapulco Quarterfinal Tennis Betting Picks: Verdasco vs. Monaco

Acapulco, Mexico – Top seed Fernando Verdasco and seventh seed Juan Monaco have an appointment in the Abierto Mexicano quarters, just as most experts predicted they would before the start of the tournament. Because their matchup was imagined since the start the drama and excitement has been building up, reaching a feverish pitch now that we are only a few hours away before they take centre court.

Verdasco and Monaco set up an interesting clash because of their prowess on the red stuff. They are some of the best grinding, dirt bashers in the game. That they both come into their encounter in-form only promises they will deliver a high quality clash that should live up to the hype.

Head-to-head, Monaco has Verdasco’s number lifetime as he leads the series 5-2. Recent history suggests otherwise and tells a more accurate story. In 2009, Verdasco beat Monaco at the Madrid Masters 7-5, 6-2. Later in the season, Monaco earned the victory at Bastad, but on a retirement by Verdasco down 1-6, 1-3.

That said Monaco has already competed in two-clay court events this season to the tune of encouraging results – a semi-final finish in Buenos Aires and a runner-up finish at Santiago, a week prior. Monaco should be in fine clay-court form right about now, in his third event on the South American clay-court swing.

Verdasco, on the other hand, only just joined the South American proceedings after competing in two American hard court events, with mixed results. He won the title in San Jose (beating American favourite Roddick, no less) and immediately afterwards crashed out of Memphis in the first round. Obviously, Verdasco hasn’t clocked in as much time as Monaco on clay, which some would have as a serious disadvantage in this blockbuster billing.

Tennis Betting Line :

Fernando Verdasco -2½ -125 -180 22 O -125 U -115
Juan Monaco +2½ -115 +140 22 O -125 U -115

First Set Line: Fernando Verdasco -180 Juan Monaco +140

Match Time: 06:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The market on this match is rather close but Fernando Verdasco is still the clear favourite to win outright, trading at -180. Verdasco backers can also find the Spaniard listed equally to take the first set at -180. Verdasco started his bid slow, stretched to three sets by Fabio Fognini in the first round, but he cleaned up his act taking out Kubot in straight sets in the second round. Verdasco’s better performance is encouraging and adds shine to his stock value.

Monaco carries a modest +140 price to win outright and an equally modest tag to win the first set. Monaco faced stiff contest from Alberto Martin in the first round and was forced to come back from behind to win 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-2. He was much sharper in the second round against compatriot Juan Ignacio Chela, taking him out in straight sets. Monaco is priced within the market for an upset and therefore tennis bettors looking to buck the trend could do no worse than risking a wager on his odds.

Tennis Free Picks: If I were playing house money, I would back Verdasco for the win at -180 because I think he is a much better a player than Monaco, when he is on. I would hedge my bets with Monaco on the spread at + 2 ½ -115. I think this match will be close and a three set affair. The Over 22 -125 is the favoured outcome.

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ATP Acapulco Quarterfinal Betting Tips: Schwank and Gonzalez collide

Acapulco, Mexico—Fernando Gonzalez heads into his quarterfinal clash against Eduardo Schwank as the clear favourite to win outright. The expectation that Gonzalez is the smart play is reflected across the board, in all markets on this matchup from the handicap to the fixed odds and the totals.

Though this is a straightforward matchup, and by all accounts, Gonzalez has the easiest path of all the seeds into the quarters, there are still angles for profit in the betting on this match.

Tennis Betting Line:

Eduardo Schwank +4½ -135 +300 21 O -125 U -115
Fernando Gonzalez -4½ -105 -500 21 O -125 U -115

First Set Line: Eduardo Schwank +190 Fernando Gonzalez -275

Match Time: 08:00 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: First, there is no head-to-head to consider between these two, as they will meet for the first time at an ATP level event. The absence of a barometer could make for an interesting matchup. Players, even top players, can find it hard to play against a player whose game they are not familiar with, which leaves the first set theoretically up for grabs.

Gonzalez -4½ vs Schwank >> Join to Bet Now

The expectation though is that the better player, at least on paper so, will figure out his opponent’s game and the how to win. Ideally, said player will do it in straight sets but in such cases, a three-setter is very possible.

Gonzalez is the favourite in this match, trading at -500 to win outright and at -275 to win the first set. The expectation is that Gonzalez will take the match in straights because he has the overwhelming edge on paper.

Given the challenges an unknown opposite can offer, it is quite possible that Schwank would take the first set, trading at +190 – a reasonable price-point, which punters could interpret as a likely probability. To win the match outright is a long shot, trading at +300. The chances that this would happen are slim, would require Gonzalez to come off his game rather than Schwank to outplay him.

On the handicap, Schwank is trading at +4 ½ -135 to cover the spread. Interestingly, this is the favoured outcome rather than Gonzalez to cover the spread at -4 ½ -105. Seems the bookies believe Schwank will account well and avoid the embarrassing blow out.

The totals are trading at Over 21 -125 as the favoured result rather than the Under 21 -115. Further proof of bookies conviction this match will be closer than most would expect.

Tennis Free Picks: Gonzalez in straight sets

Acapulco Quarterfinal Tennis Picks: Ferrero vs. Almagro

Acapulco, Mexico – The match between Spaniards Juan Carlos Ferrero and Nicolas Almagro in the quarters of the Abierto Mexicana Telcel is the most anticipated of all the quarterfinals today. What with Nicolas Almagro being the two-time defending champion and Ferrero on an incredible hot streak, picking up back-to-back titles during the South American clay court swing, the match is hyped up justifiably so.

With all the hype and anticipation surrounding their clash, there is the betting on the match that is heating up in the BetOnline market. And it isn’t a straightforward affair by any means. Whereas there is a clear favourite in Ferrero and a mere puppy in Almagro there are other factors to consider that would skew the market cast.

Almagro takes the 2-1 lifetime edge over Ferrero but his victories came back in 2006 on home soil. He beat Ferrero twice in 2006 at Valencia and Spain (both clay court events). Arguably, those were not memorable seasons for Ferrero but he accounted well against his younger compatriot nonetheless, losing both matches narrowly. Ferrero got into the win column finally against Almagro last year in Beijing, beating him 7-5, 7-6(3). The win however came on hard courts and as such should be taken in due context.

While Almagro has had success over Ferrero on clay, Ferrero can claim to his name the biggest clay court title on the calendar, the 2003 French Open, something Almagro hasn’t accomplished for all his prowess on the red stuff. In fact, he hasn’t even come close to winning it. Even though it is a seven-year-old victory, it still counts for something – at the very least, it separates these two players on the broader clay-court scale.

Tennis Betting Line :

Juan Carlos Ferrero -2 -120 -160 22½ O -110 U -130
Nicolas Almagro +2 -120 +120 22½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Juan Carlos Ferrero -145 Nicolas Almagro +105

Match Time: 09:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday February 25, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Ferrero trading at -160 to win outright and at -145 to take the first set are good bets. There is a hot streak to consider, including two titles, and the confidence of those wins behind him to weigh into the equation. Tennis bettors looking to back Ferrero cannot be faulted for doing so. Everything about him suggests he is the likely winner.

Almagro however is not going to be a cakewalk. Almagro has worn the sombrero in Acapulco two-years in a row and he is looking to complete the hat trick here. In some ways, this would make him the player to beat rather than the other way around because he has a lot at stake here, from ranking points to pride. Offered at +120 odds Almagro is a good bet for tennis betting fans looking to buck the trend.

Almagro has already been involved in several high stake matches; the most memorable, his R16 encounter against Tsonga at the Aussie Open, which was a five set marathon to behold. Almagro accounted amazingly well against Tsonga, a 2008 Aussie Open runner-up no less, and it was but a handful of points and some bad luck that saw him on the wrong end of the result. More impressive about the performance was that he had been playing with a broken bone in his left wrist – it isn’t his hitting arm but still.

Almagro’s season mark at 3-3 ahead of Acapulco doesn’t reflect all of the above praise but I believe he is in-form right now and it is only a matter of time before his results fall in line.

Tennis Free Picks: This should be a competitive match and go the distance. The betting comes down to strategy in the end: picking your winner and hedge your bets with plays on his opposite.

My bet would look like this: Almagro to take the first set at +105 is a very reasonable bet. I expect he will start strong against Ferrero and try to dictate play from the start. It is his only real chance and it could throw Ferrero off his game. Ferrero to win outright at -160. Almagro to cover the spread at + 2 -120 is trading the same as Ferrero to cover the spread at -2 -120, but I believe the former to be the better play. Vice versa, for those backing Almagro for the win would be a good strategy. The totals, I think we can all agree should be the Over 22 ½ -110.

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