Super Bowl Loyalties: Manning now vs 1970′s Manning

Despite the Saints less-than-stellar history, Archie Manning felt strongly that New Orleans would one day reach the Super Bowl but he never thought it was going to be against his own son’s team.

Super Bowl Odds:

New Orleans Saints +5.5
Indianapolis Colts -5.5
O/U 56.5

“I am proud of what the Saints have accomplished. I’ve lived here for 39 years. I played for the Saints for 12 years and I was around them for the next 21 years as a broadcaster for the team on radio and television. I’m just extremely proud of the players, coaches and the front office. They deserve to be where they are. I could not be happier for them. The Saints earned it,” said Manning senior.

Archie was picked by the Saints as second overall in 1971.  During his years as the Saints starting QB and despite his talent the Saints were never a winning team mostly because he wasn’t surrounded by any talent and never had a decent protection from his offensive line.  This eventually stopped him from achieving greatness even though he was a part of two Pro-Bowls.

Archie still calls New Orleans home and his 3 sons Cooper, Peyton and Eli were raised in New Orleans, Louisiana, obviously rooting for the Saints and their father.

“Peyton loves his hometown and has given back to New Orleans. He enjoyed going to Saints games when he was young and with his brothers back when he was in high school at Newman. They have great memories of going to the Saints games. He has a deep-rooted feeling for the city and has done his part to support it, he continues to do so through his foundation and he always will,” said the elder Manning.

Peyton won’t have any feelings of nostalgia going up against his favorite childhood team.  He will be going all out to get his end Super Bowl ring in 4 years.

Archie has come out and said that he will be rooting for his son Peyton in Super Bowl 44.  But I don’t think if there would be any other team besides Indy or the NY Giants (his youngest son Eli’s team) that he would rather win the Super Bowl than New Orleans.

 “I’m friends with Drew (Brees), Sean (Payton) and the Saints folks but they know I will be pulling for my son. That is easy. I believe anyone would pull for their own son in the same situation. Wouldn’t you?”

Super Bowl Betting Tip: Peyton is 2-2 against the Saints.  The first time they met Manning was a rookie and New Orleans took advantage of an interception thrown in overtime to win 19-13.  Peyton was 19 of 32 for 309 yards with one touchdown pass but three interceptions in the game.

The second match was in 2001 at the Superdome with another Saints’ victory 34-20.  Manning played well completing 18 of 28 for 262 yards and a score with an interception, but, the difference in the game was Ricky Williams who ran 120 yards and a TD for New Orleans.

The last two meeting Peyton had his revenge and basically performed a butt whipping in both victories.  The first one was in 2003 with a 55-21 win with Manning throwing 314 yards and a record six touchdowns for a quarterback rating of 158.3.

The last one was in 2007; the Colts scored 31 points in the second half to win 41-10. Manning was 18 of 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns.

I think all the Manning family won’t forget how much New Orleans gave them. But on February 7th things will be different as they will dress blue, no question about it.

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2010 Super Bowl Betting Trends – The OVER Looks Good

All signs point to a shootout in the 44th Super Bowl in Miami on Feb. 7. Indianapolis is going for its second victory since 2007 while New Orleans is in NFL’s big dance for the first time.

The Saints averaged 38 points in their NFC playoff games against two division champs. The Colts averaged 25 points in their two AFC triumphs over wild card teams.

During the regular season, New Orleans Saints averaged 31.9 points going 13-3. Indianapolis scored 26 points each outing while posting a 14-2 record.

The winning team in the past 10 NFL championship games racked up only 30 points or higher three times. The AFC, averaging 23.8 points each contest, was 7-3.

In the previous decade from ’90 through ’99, the winners scored 30 or more points eight times. The NFC was 8-2 while averaging 34.8 points.

Going back to the first decade of the Super Bowl, ’67-76, the AFC (four years as the AFL against the NFL-NFC before the merger) held a 7-3 edge. Green Bay was the only outfit to score more than 30 points, crushing Kansas City 35-10 in ’67 and Oakland 33-14 the following year.

A total of 60 or more points were put up only six times in history, including four games in the ’90s. The highest scoring contest came in ’95 when San Francisco and San Diego combined for 75, with the 49ers on top, 49-26.

The other high scoring games:

69 points: Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 in ’03 and Dallas 52, Buffalo 17, ’93, when the last No. 1 seeds hooked up.

66 points: Pittsburgh 31, Dallas 19 in ’79.

65 points: San Francisco 55, Denver 10 in ’90.

61 points: Washington 37, Buffalo 24 in ’92.

In five head-to-head clashes since ’95, the Saints hold a 3-2 edge. But the Colts in their two most recent meetings destroyed New Orleans, 41-10 in ’07 and 55-21 in ’03.

Indianapolis is between a 5 ½- and 6-point favorite currently at a half-dozen online sportsbooks despite New Orleans being listed among the top half-dozen of several key statistics. Those include net third down percentage (second), interceptions (fourth) and red zone possessions (sixth). The Colts in those same categories rank 22nd, ninth and 15th respectively.

The Saints are 15-3 straight up in their last 18 games while the Colts are 16-2. But New Orleans is a surprising 1-6 against the spread in its past seven games while Indianapolis is 7-2 in the last nine games.

A victory by the Colts would even the championship series that now stands 22-21 in favor of the NFC.

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Pro-Bowl Betting Preview – Favored NFC Faces Horrifically Depleted AFC

Everyone has their problems with the Pro Bowl, but nothing has infuriated the sports world more than Roger Goddell moving the NFL’s version of the All-Star game the weekend before the Super Bowl. Not only has this forced Super Bowl competitors to drop out of the matchup as their prepare for all the Super Bowl XLIV betting lines they have to beat, it also hasn’t given ample time for the playoff competitors to recover from the gauntlet of the NFL’s sports betting season. This is less of a Pro-Bowl and more of a Leftover-Bowl.

The most glaring and embarrassing addition to the Pro Bowl roster is the AFC’s reserve quarterback David Garrard whose Jaguars went a pitiful 7-9 SU while getting decimated on the football betting line 5-11 ATS. Garrard is joined Matt Schaub and Vince Young, who only played in ten freakin’ games this season. That trio of misfit toys replaces the deserving starters of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (injured) and Philip Rivers (injured).

That being said, the AFC quarterbacks will enjoy a massive load of protection when they get the best offensive linemen in the game. The defenders of the trench are largely made up of New York Jets’ lineman, including center Nick Mangold, guard Alan Faneca and tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. They’ll be joined by Ryan Clady of the Broncos and Logan Mankins of the Patriots. If the Jets’ were good enough to make Mark Sanchez look like a Super Bowl hopeful, then they’ll do enough to give Garrard and his AFC quarterback counterparts enough time to find receivers in the open field.

The NBA, NHL and MLB versions of the All-Star contest are always scoring melee’s and the Pro Bowl is no exception. The football betting TOTAL stand at 57.0 points and the average over the past five years has been 57.4. The average margin of victory for either side has been 8.2 points per game in the last five, and 11.8 points in the last 10 outings. The AFC and NFC are tied in the last decade at 5-5 SU, but the NFC’s advantage on the betting line is offset because of the players running the ball this year. 

NFC All-Stars (20-19) vs. AFC All-Stars (19-20)
Sunday, January 31st – Sun Life Stadium, Miami — 7:20pm EST
Pro Bowl Betting Line – NFC -2.5 (57.0)

The big difference for the NFC are that their breadth of quarterbacks is much better. Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb will back up starter Aaron Rodgers. Brett Favre (injured) and Drew Brees (Super Bowl) will sit this one out. McNabb will have the familiarity of DeSean Jackson while Romo will enjoy zipping passes to Miles Austin.

Defensively this game comes down to scoring, scoring and more scoring. While I’ve ripped the AFC’s quarterback trio, their running-back triumvirate is downright scary. Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice have all had plenty of time to rest thanks to the inability of their teams to reach, or succeed, in the post season. On top of that, they’re almost three identical backs who can break out of the backfield to bust through the half-effort tackles of defenders and they can also offer relief as receivers on short yardage plays.

If any bet in the NFL is a crapshoot, it’s the Pro Bowl. But with the points and more load in the skill positions, the AFC will cover the line and “upset” the NFC. There’s always one guy who tries a little too hard when everyone else is just enjoying a virtual pick up game. Two years ago it was Adrian Peterson. Last year it was Larry Fitzgerald. This year, it will be Chris Johnson. Bank on it.

Furious Pro Bowl Pick – AFC +2.5 (OVER)

Pro Bowl Prop Betting Tips

As with every game, BetOnline offers a massive line of NFL prop betting on the Pro Bowl and The Furious One is here to break down the best bets of the game. While the NFL point spread is always fun to bet on, and we have tons of break downs on the game itself, prop betting is always a keeper. Here are my picks for Sunday’s All-Star showdown!

First To Score: NFC -120 / AFC -110
The AFC. Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson are both excellent deep threats and the NFC’s secondary is full of over reaching safeties and corners. If there was a prop bet on who was going to connect on the first score, I’d say it’s Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub rekindling the fire.

Score In 1st 6 ½ Minutes: Yes -200 / No +160
Sucker bet alert! The Pro Bowl, while packed with superstars, is a game with a mixed bag of rosters. These guys have just one week to practice together and the first half of the first quarter is almost always used to work out the kinks in a real game situation. There’s also the x-factor of players not taking the game seriously until it attracts that natural air of competition. The YES bet is a sucker bet so stick with N-O and rake in on that sweet line.

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First Score In Game: TD -240 / OTHER +190
As I said earlier, I expect the first score of this game to be a touchdown to Andre Johnson. The field bet is enticing in this one, but I doubt that the kickers will see plenty of action in this game.

Team Scores 3 Unanswered: Yes -200 / No +160
Neither the NFC nor the AFC are trotting out their best lineups in this game. The idea of the lazy defenses of either side stepping up to actually shut down the opposing conference is not only unthinkable, it’s insanely unlikely. To bank on one team running amuck over the other considering the players on the field is unimaginable.

Highest Scoring Half: 1st Half -125 / 2nd Half -105
Despite my stern belief that this game will start out slow, the first half is the better bet here. All you have to do is look at the quarterbacks. The AFC will be able to get off to a hot start, but the NFC has three very capable quarterbacks that can steady the scoring pace throughout the entire game. Vince Young and David Garrard not only don’t deserve to be in the game, they’ll stall the scoring in the second half when they see more time. Take the 1st half at -125.

Team To Score Longest TD: NFC -115 /AFC -115
All Tony Romo and Miles Austin did this season was score bombs. If any team is going to score a 70+ yard touchdown, it’s the duo from Dallas. Bank on the NFC in this prop bet.

These aren’t the only prop bets available in the Pro Bowl! Click on the “show prop bets” under the game line in the BetOnline Sportsbook to see the rest. Good luck and enjoy the game, kids!

2010 Pro Bowl Betting with Props – AFC vs. NFC (-2.5)

AFC vs. NFC
Sunday, January 31st – 7:20 PM ET
Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL

NFL Point Spread: NFC -2.5, O/U: 57 

The 2010 Pro Bowl represents a new world for professional football’s all-star game. For the first time since 1979, this contest will be played on the American mainland, not in Hawaii. After decades of being the last game of the season, the Pro Bowl will be staged a week before the Super Bowl. Those changes are just the beginning. 

The players on the two teams competing in the Super Bowl – while required by the NFL to attend the game – will not play at all. This includes Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (AFC) and New Orleans Saints signal caller Drew Brees (NFC). Multiple offensive linemen for the AFC and NFC also exist on the Colts and Saints. This will be weird.  

NFL Handicapping: What The AFC Has To Do To Win 

Establish the ground game.  

Because of the quirky backdrop to this contest, the players who participated in the conference championship games, win or lose, are not likely to be a factor at all. Members of both the New York Jets (AFC) and Minnesota Vikings (NFC) will have virtually no turnaround time for this game, and the pain of losing just before the Super Bowl will make it hard for those teams’ all-stars to emotionally gear up for this new-look Pro Bowl.

As a result, the players on teams who either didn’t make the playoffs or got eliminated early in the playoffs will likely decide the outcome. The AFC has three running backs – Chris Johnson of Tennessee, Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville, and Ray Rice of Baltimore – who will be relatively rested for this game, whereas NFC running back Adrian Peterson of Minnesota will find it hard to be motivated. If the AFC can establish a power running game and outwork the NFC’s defensive front, it should have a great chance to win. 

NFL Handicapping: What The NFC Has To Do To Win 

Thrive in the passing game and hit big plays downfield. 

If the AFC has the edge at running back, the NFC owns an advantage under center. With Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning preparing for the Super Bowl and New England’s Tom Brady clearly at less than full strength (the AFC Wild Card loss to Baltimore revealed as much), the AFC’s best hope at quarterback is San Diego gunslinger Philip Rivers, but Rivers is not at 100 percent in his own right. Houston’s Matt Schaub and Tennessee’s Vince Young have been listed as reserves, so it’s clear that the AFC will need an above-average performance on Sunday. 

The NFC won’t have Drew Brees or Brett Favre, but it will have Tony Romo of Dallas and Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia as backup quarterbacks. That’s a much better set of reserves – behind starting signal caller Aaron Rodgers – than the AFC’s Schaub-Young tandem. If this becomes a shootout, the NFC is positioned rather nicely. A power-oriented slugfest will help AFC coach Norv Turner (San Diego), but an aerial show will aid the cause of NFC coach Wade Phillips (Dallas).

NFL Handicapping: Outlook & Pick 

The new circumstances surrounding this game are hard to account for. No one really knows just how the logistics of a Pro Bowl played before the Super Bowl will affect the AFC and NFC rosters. It will be odd to see the two conferences play without the representatives of their respective champions, the Colts (AFC) and Saints (NFC). Who will win? It’s an open question.

But since this game is being played before the Super Bowl and a lot of players will be less rested compared to past Pro Bowl games, the feeling here is that offense will dominate. If that’s the case, the quarterback-rich NFC should triumph. 

NFL Point Spread Pick: NFC -2.5 & Over 57 

NFL Prop Betting: Team To Score First And Score In First Six Minutes 

The NFC should be the team that will score first, for all the reasons stated above. And if this game is going to be a shootout, it’s highly likely that a number will be posted in the game’s first six minutes of action. The home of the Miami Dolphins will witness a lot of touchdowns on the final day of January. 

NFL Prop Betting Pick: NFC Will Score First, Score In First Six Minutes

Colts vs. Saints in Super Bowl 44 – Almost the Perfect Game

You could hear the low rumbles around week five. By week eight, there were spirited conversations from Vegas to the office water cooler. Every Thanksgiving turkey leg was chomped with the anticipation of it. 2 teams, 1 Super Bowl, and 0 losses.

We know now, as you do through the rearview mirror of sports, that it was not meant to be. But even now, we are left with the hang over of the what-if’s and what-could-be’s of it all. Every sportswriter, bookie, and fan in the world was building the story in their head. Working the angles and setting the table for what was going to be the biggest game in NFL history. And I was no exception. How do you begin to compete with that?

Going into week 15, the Saints and the Colts were still unbeaten. The whirlwind was in full spin. Logos were being created, slogans were being invented, and t-shirts were being ordered from China. It was fate. The QB with the arm given him by God himself, versus the team that rose from the ashes of God’s watery fury. We do love our biblical metaphors don’t we? In the days leading up to week 15 no one was talking about the war. No one was talking about the recession. Well, some people were talking about it, but no meat eater with a beating heart was listening.

Two weeks earlier the Saints gave us all a scare with a 33-30 OT win against Washington, followed by a narrow 26-23 victory over Atlanta. Normally a Saints/Redskins game does not get the big screen at sports bars outside of the French Quarter, but there they were, front and center. The New Orleans Saints had Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina left on the schedule, and most thought that if they could get by Dallas the perfect regular season was a lock.

The Indianapolis Colts pretty much cruised through the season, with few speed bumps or near misses along the way. The closest they came to losing were a couple of mid-season clashes with the 49er’s (won 18-14) and the Texans (won 20-17). But even in those close games no one actually thought Indy was going to lose. So after beating Denver 28-16 in week 14, with only Jacksonville, the Jets, and the Bills left, the speculation surrounding a perfect season had reached a feverish pitch.

Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) @ New Orleans Saints >> Join Now

So there we were, weekend 15. Every player and coach was playing down the possibility that two teams could be unbeaten in the big game. They just take the season one game at a time. Really? A player saying that he is not excited about the possibility of a perfect season is like being in a room full of hookers with $500 in your pocket and saying that you are not excited about the prospect of getting laid. I don’t buy it.

Dallas . Why does it always have to be Dallas? Did they not get the memo that most people already hate them? 13-0 became 13-1 for the Saints. And with it, a deflated sporting nation finally moved back form the edge of their seats. It almost seemed like an afterthought that the Colts had beat the Jags 35-31. Their perfect season was still intact, but that story was nothing in comparison to what we were all talking about before either game kicked-off.

Almost predictably, and without much fanfare, the Indianapolis Colts lost the next week to the Jets 29-15. Each team went on to lose it’s remaining games, due in no small part to each team essentially suiting up season ticket holders while the starters called it in from the couch.

So where does that leave us? Next Sunday we can not help but think about how much better it would be at 16-0 vs. 16-0 instead of 14-2 vs. 13-3. The shine is off the apple, and the new car smell has given way to left over fast food wrappers.

But wait…

If we can look past what we wanted, and look at what we have, what we see is the makings of one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory. We have to shake off the lingering hangover of over-reaching expectations.

Focus on this;

926 combined points for. 648 points against. Manning and Brees threw a total of 77 touch downs. This is going to be an electric explosion of offensive execution, and BetOnline is going to have complete breakdowns and analysis all week leading up to the fireworks next Sunday. So bake the chili, pick up the chicken wings, order the keg, and practice your best call-in-sick voice for Monday morning. Because while it might not be what we were hoping for, a disappointing day watching football, beats a good day doing just about anything else.

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Horse Racing LOCK ALERT – Gulfstream Park Pick 3

Pick 3 Saturday:  Beating Pashito The Che in the Sunshine Millions Sprint and Soldier’s Dancer in the Sunshine Millions Turf is the Key to Profits

Race-day:  1/30/2010

1st-Leg:  4:33 pm EST

Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park host the 2010 Sunshine Millions Classic.  Purses have been cut for a number of races, a couple of sprint races have been axed from the card, and the overall feeling regarding the Sunshine Millions Classic just isn’t the same.

Boo-hoo, right?  Who cares if we can cash a nice Pick 3 ticket!  That’s what I’ll be trying to do on Saturday.  The key to cashing that all elusive profitable ticket is to try and beat Pashito The Che in the Sprint and Soldier’s Dancer in the Turf.  Check it out below:

Sunshine Millions:  Gulfstream Park Pick 3

Race 8 – Sunshine Millions Sprint Stakes

6 furlongs

For Four Year Olds and Up CTBA or FTBOA Registered

Horses Used:  6-This One’s For Phil

Analysis:  This One’s For Phil returns to the barn of Richard Dutrow.  That makes him an automatic bet in this to me, but if that fact wasn’t enough t o convince you, how about his last two works?  He busted 6 furlongs in 1:12 and change and 5 furlongs in :59. Both works were the fastest of the day. The jock switch to John Velasquez should help as well.  Pashito The Che is going to be tough, no doubt, but you have to take a stand somewhere in the Pick 3.  I’m taking a stand in the 1st leg.

Race 9 – Sunshine Millions Distaff

1 1/8 miles on dirt

For Fillies Four Years Old and Up CTBA or FTBOA Registered

Horses Used:  4-Sweet Repent, 7-Jessica Is Back, 8-Scolara

Analysis:  Sweet Repent has won 4 races in a row for Trainer David Braddy and will come into this off of a terrific 5 furlong work in :59 and 1 on January 22nd.  She has every right to romp in this but jockey Manuel Cruz is 0 for 18 at this meet.  Jessica Is Back finished 2nd to Sweet Repent two races ago.  She gets Julien Leparoux and trainer Martin Wolfson is a master with horses off of a layoff.  A big knock is that she faces other speed in here.  Scolara is my long shot entry in this.  She goes turf to dirt for trainer Bill Mott, switches from the 11% winning jockey Kent Desormeaux to the 20% winning jockey J.J. Castellano and is12 to 1 on the morning line. 

Race 10 – Sunshine Millions Turf

1 1/8 miles on turf

For Four Years Old and Up CTBA or FTBOA Registered

Horses Used:  3-Duke Of Mischief, 4-Bad Action, 8-Soldier’s Dancer, 11-Jet Propulsion

Analysis:  Like I wrote above, one of the keys to cashing a nice ticket is to beat Soldier’s Dancer in the Sunshine Millions Turf.  Can it be done? Absolutely it can!  Soldier’s Dancer is 7 out of 14 races at this distance and has won 12 out of 32 lifetime, but his jockey, Manuel Cruz, is 0 for 18 at the Gulfstream Park meet.  Why not try to beat him?  Duke of Mischief is better on dirt than turf but he did beat Kiss The Kid and Mambo Meister in his last.  His morning line is 8 to 1 in this, which makes him an overlay.  Bad Action, should he run in this (he’s cross-entered in the Sunshine Millions Classic) goes to the barn of Todd Pletcher.  He’s an automatic “use” because of that.  Jet Propulsion switches barns to Martin Wolfson and is coming off of a layoff.  Wolfson is 30% winners with horses coming off of a layoff and 56% winners with his 1st claimers.

1 x 3 x 4 = 12 combinations

$1 Pick 3 = $12

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Weekend Stakes Races: Sunshine Millions Day Brings Out the Best in SoCal and Florida

Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park come together this Saturday for their annual Sunshine Millions Day of Racing.  The Sunshine Millions is a set of horse races determined to place Florida and SoCal racing into the hearts and minds of horseplayers all over the world.

It is what is says it is:  races with six figure purses that only California or Florida bred ponies can enter. Cali and Flory (okay…that’s bad!) produce so much talent that the in the Sunshine Millions are usually quite competitive.  Horseplayers had better hope so.  The favorites in the two biggest races I’m looking at, the Sunshine Millions Turf and the Sunshine Millions Classic, are Soldier’s Dancer and The Usual QT.  Those dudes are two tough equines.  Of course, I’ll try to beat them.

Sunshine Millions Day:  Turf and Classic

Gulfstream Park – Race 10

Sunshine Millions Turf

Race-time:  5:43 pm EST

$300,000

For Four Year Olds and Upward Bred in California or Florida and Registered with the CTBA or the FTBOA

1 1/8th miles on turf

Soldier’s Dancer should romp in the Turf, but I can’t bet him at 8 to 5 or lower in this.  I’m going with Jet Propulsion who is switching barns to Martin Wolfson.  Wolfson is 56% first after the claim, albeit with only 9 horses.  He’s also 30% with his horses in the 46 to 90 days away category. The “French Superman”, Julien Leparoux, takes the call.  I’ll roll the dice on Jet Propulsion in this.  As I wrote above, Soldier’s Dancer should romp.  The Grade III winner has won 7 out of 4 at this distance, has won his last 2, and is coming off of a layoff, which is a winning angle for him.  The lone knock is a big one.  Jockey Manuel R. Cruz is 0 for 18 at this meet. Duke of Mischief’s morning line in this is 8 to 1.  Wow.  Yes, the horse appears to be better on dirt than turf, but he beat Kiss The Kid and Mambo Meister in his last.  Again, that race was on dirt and this is turf, but…he beat Kiss The Kid and Mambo Meister in his last.  Save for Jet Propulsion and Soldier’s Dancer, two horses tower over the rest of this field. Duke of Mischief has a big shot in this.

1. Jet Propulsion
2. Soldier’s Dancer
3. Duke of Mischief

Santa Anita – Race 8

Sunshine Millions Classic

Race-time:  6:38 pm EST

$500,000

For Four Year Olds and Upward Bred in California or Florida and Registered with the CTBA or the FTBOA

1 1/8 miles on all weather

This is a tough race to handicap only because the likely favorite, The Usual QT, has proven to be terrific on turf and not so terrific, actually downright mediocre, on an all weather surface.  Why the connections of The Usual QT decided to enter him in this instead of the Sunshine Millions’ Turf is odd.  Anyhow, I have to try to beat him, but with whom?  How about Wicked Style who has been running at Churchill Downs and Keeneland?  Wicked Style gets Rafael Bejarano, tests this off of a layoff, and has 3 victories, a second, and 2 thirds out of 8 lifetime races on the plastic.  He’s my guy in the Sunshine Millions Classic…if he doesn’t go in the Sunshine Millions Turf.  Wicked Style is cross-entered in the two biggest Sunshine Millions races.  The Usual QT is just too good to leave out of the exacta.  He could class his way to a victory in this.  He’s won 6 straight races, all of them on turf, including the Grade I Hollywood Derby.  Jeranimo likes Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride.  His record of 2-2-2 out of 7 lifetime races attests to that.  He’s never run this far, but his odds will be solid and he has that grinding style that could work in this work.

1. Wicked Style
2. The Usual QT
3. Jeranimo

** If Wicked Style doesn’t go, then I’ll move the The Usual QT to the top spot and play him in an exacta over Jeranimo and Unusual Smoke.  Both of those should provide value underneath The Usual QT.

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Australian Open Final: Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray

Melbourne , Australia – Roger Federer is a victory away from capturing his 16 th Grand Slam title, an unprecedented record in the men’s game. But won’t the humble champion be the first person to tell you winning a Grand Slam is not easy.

Nobody would understand that sentiment better than Andy Murray who is still searching for that elusive maiden Grand Slam title and vying to end Britain’s 70-something- year’s major title drought.

Murray lost to Federer in the US Open final two years ago, his only real shot at a major title to date. Having had his ambitions thwarted once, and rather convincingly as he lost in straight sets, should motivate the Scot to put forward a better account this time around. The market certainly tips him rather encouragingly at +135 to finally come of age at a major.

Methinks the market is rather deflated to account for patriotic British betting. Murray is too short in my opinion for a player that has never won a major title. I would have had him at slightly longer odds. I suppose that is neither here nor there. Even so, bettors should not be fooled and read too much into his casting.

Roger Federer is the maestro and the firm favourite at -175 to win outright at BetOnline. Given his know-how at this level, one has to give him the edge over Murray, regardless of where the market has positioned itself.

Tennis Betting Line:
Roger Federer -2½ -110 -175 39½ O -140 U Ev
Andrew Murray +2½ -130 +135 39½ O -140 U Ev

First Set Line:

Roger Federer -160 9½ O -160 U +120
Andrew Murray +120 9½ O -160 U +120

Second Set Line:
Roger Federer -150 9½ O -165 U +125
Andrew Murray +110 9½ O -165 U +125

Match Set Line:
Roger Federer -150 9½ O -165 U +125
Andrew Murray +110 9½ O -165 U +125

Match Time: 03:45 AM Eastern Time Saturday January 30, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Andy Murray has an encouraging head-to-head edge over Roger Federer and that has some convinced he will upset Federer in Melbourne. Murray leads the series 6-4 but all the victories came at lesser events, in best of three scenarios. The only time they ever met at a Grand Slam Federer schooled Murray 6-2, 7-5, 6-2.

Of course, Murray has improved many aspects of his game and has set himself up well as a potential champion. He can definitely vex Federer and make this a tough match. But to do so he will have to take it from Federer. Counterpunching his way to the title is not going to work.

I like Roger Federer to come away with the victory but I cannot reasonably dissuade bettors from laying a risk on Murray. Therefore, decide which player you want to side with and follow up with the additional options available. For my part, Federer to win at -175 and cover the spread at -2 ½ -110 is the sound play. The Over 39 ½ -140 appears to be a good bet but the Unders is listed at Evens, which suggests the bookies believe there is a real possibility Murray might not account as well as many think he will.

Suggested additional bets are to take Federer to win the first set at -160 and Under 9 ½ +120. Andy Murray might be able to sneak the second set off Federer at +110 but I am fancying Federer to take that one as well at -150. I expect the second set will be more competitive, it always does take time for Murray to wake up and realize his surroundings. So I like the Overs at 91/2 -165 there. Match Set Line, I like Federer at -150 and the Overs at 9 ½ -165.

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More Than $1,000,000 Reasons to Bet Gulfstream, Santa Anita on Saturday

The eighth running of the Sunshine Millions takes place on Saturday, with Florida breds taking on California breds in six stakes races at two locales with $1.8 million in purses up for grabs.

The event was the brainchild of Magna owner Frank Stronach, and there is a point system to declare one of the two states a winner.

Horseplayers will pay little attention to the standings during the day, but they will be paying plenty of attention to the large and competitive fields, which makes the races very attractive from a wagering perspective.

After all, that is all that matters, right?

The action kicks off at Gulfstream Park and the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint, which drew a field of seven runners who will go six furlongs on the main track.

This Ones for Phil is a two time winner over the surface at Gulfstream Park, taking the Sunshine Millions Dash last January, and won the Swale Stakes (G2) in March thanks to the stewards, who disqualified the winner Big Drama for interference.

The Richard Dutrow trainee beat optional claimers at Laurel Park in November, which was his first start off a 5 ½ month break.

The four year old will have his hands full with Pashito the Che, who had a three race win streak snapped last out when he came up a nose shy in the Gravesand Handicap at Aqueduct.

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The four year old colt has landed in the exacta in 10 of his 12 career starts and will be adding blinkers to the mix today for trainer Scott Lake.

The $200,000 Sunshine Millions Distaff drew a field of nine fillies and mares who will go nine furlongs on the main track.

Sweet Repent comes into the race riding a four race win streak, three of those victories coming by a nose, all four wins over the main track at Calder.

In her last start on Dec. 26, the filly made a good late rally to get up in the final jump to win the Stage Door Betty Handicap (G3).

The filly will have to deal with Amazing again, the mare coming out on the wrong end of the photo in the Stage Door Betty, as well as Jessica Is Back, who is in the best form of her career since landing in the Marty Wolfson barn.

The six year old mare made 34 starts without earning a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, and since Wolfson took over the training duties, she has hit that plateau in four of her last five starts.

A field of eleven will line up in the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Turf, which will be contested at nine furlongs on the grass course.

Soldier’s Dancer won the Turf last year when it was contested at Santa Anita, running down Presious Passion in that outing.

The six year old has won 10 of 24 starts on turf, and will be tough to beat as the likely short priced favorite.

The first of the trio of stakes at Santa Anita is the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint, which drew a competitive field of 13 fillies and mares, who will do battle at six furlongs over the Pro Ride surface.

The Greg Gilchrist trainee High Resolve is back to defend her title, but after winning the race at Gulfstream Park on conventional dirt last year, she will have to run over the Pro Ride today. The five year old mare is 0 for 4 on synthetic surfaces in her career.

The lightly raced Miss McCall won her stakes debut in the Phoenix Stakes last out at Turf Paradise on dirt after wining back to back on Pro Ride here in her two previous starts.

Ur All That I Am has won six of nine starts on synthetic surfaces in her career, and is coming off a solid runner up finish in the Kalookan Queen Stakes in her most recent start.

The $300,000 Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf drew a competitive field of eight fillies and mares who will go nine furlongs on the grass course.

Trainer Tom Proctor sends out a pair of five year old mares, and they both appear to have a good shot of hitting the winners circle.

Closeout is coming off a solid runner up finish at Tampa Bay Downs in allowance company. She ran second to a nice mare in Lemonette, who is graded stakes placed.

Proctor will also saddle Tight Precision, who was a smart looking winner last out against third level optional claimers last out over the turf course at Gulfstream Park going a mile.

The mare ran a solid second behind Acoma last fall at Keeneland in the Valley View (G3).

The marquee event of the day is the $500,000 Sunshine Millions Classic, which features a pair of streaking four year olds.

The Usual Q.T. comes into the Classic riding a six race win streak, all on turf. The gelding has never been in better form, but he sports a 0 for 4 mark on synthetic surfaces in his career.

The red hot barn of Martin Jones sends out Compari, who has won four races in a row since running third in his debut last February.

The gelding returned off a eight month layoff to beat first level allowance foes in December, then took the Sensational Star Handicap in his last start going 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course.

The gelding looks primed for a good effort in his third start off the bench, and won the Snow Chief against California breds at Hollywood Park going nine furlongs last April.

The Sunshine Millions is based on a cumulative total of points for all races taking place at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park. 

Points are allocated so that the winner of each of the six races receives 5 points.  Each second place winner will receive 3 points and 1 point is awarded for third place.

At the end of the day, the results are tallied for 1st, 2nd & 3rd in all six races and the state with the most points wins.

However, the only thing horseplayers will be tallying up at the end of the day is their bankroll.

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