2010 Super Bowl Betting Trends – The OVER Looks Good
All signs point to a shootout in the 44th Super Bowl in Miami on Feb. 7. Indianapolis is going for its second victory since 2007 while New Orleans is in NFL’s big dance for the first time.
The Saints averaged 38 points in their NFC playoff games against two division champs. The Colts averaged 25 points in their two AFC triumphs over wild card teams.
During the regular season, New Orleans Saints averaged 31.9 points going 13-3. Indianapolis scored 26 points each outing while posting a 14-2 record.
The winning team in the past 10 NFL championship games racked up only 30 points or higher three times. The AFC, averaging 23.8 points each contest, was 7-3.
In the previous decade from ’90 through ’99, the winners scored 30 or more points eight times. The NFC was 8-2 while averaging 34.8 points.
Going back to the first decade of the Super Bowl, ’67-76, the AFC (four years as the AFL against the NFL-NFC before the merger) held a 7-3 edge. Green Bay was the only outfit to score more than 30 points, crushing Kansas City 35-10 in ’67 and Oakland 33-14 the following year.
A total of 60 or more points were put up only six times in history, including four games in the ’90s. The highest scoring contest came in ’95 when San Francisco and San Diego combined for 75, with the 49ers on top, 49-26.
The other high scoring games:
69 points: Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 in ’03 and Dallas 52, Buffalo 17, ’93, when the last No. 1 seeds hooked up.
66 points: Pittsburgh 31, Dallas 19 in ’79.
65 points: San Francisco 55, Denver 10 in ’90.
61 points: Washington 37, Buffalo 24 in ’92.
In five head-to-head clashes since ’95, the Saints hold a 3-2 edge. But the Colts in their two most recent meetings destroyed New Orleans, 41-10 in ’07 and 55-21 in ’03.
Indianapolis is between a 5 ½- and 6-point favorite currently at a half-dozen online sportsbooks despite New Orleans being listed among the top half-dozen of several key statistics. Those include net third down percentage (second), interceptions (fourth) and red zone possessions (sixth). The Colts in those same categories rank 22nd, ninth and 15th respectively.
The Saints are 15-3 straight up in their last 18 games while the Colts are 16-2. But New Orleans is a surprising 1-6 against the spread in its past seven games while Indianapolis is 7-2 in the last nine games.
A victory by the Colts would even the championship series that now stands 22-21 in favor of the NFC.
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