NFL Free Picks – Vikings Need to Defeat Giants for First-Round Bye

Last minute heroics by Brett Favre simply weren’t enough as the Vikings were stunned during a Monday Night Football betting loss to the Chicago Bears last weekend. With the New York Giants on the docket playing for respect to close out their season, the Vikings will need to snap a two-game losing skid to keep their hopes of a first-round bye alive.

That win, combined with a Philadelphia Eagles loss will clinch them the second seed in the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota’s defense has been taking a beating in the past two weeks, giving up 62-points and plummeting them to 14th overall in points allowed with a bloated average of 20.3 points per game. Thankfully, the New York Giants have been an up-and-down, flip flopping team with too many faces (and most of them bad ones).

They can be the playoff sterling punishers like they’ve been against Dallas (31-24) or Washington (45-12) or they can be absolute duds like they were last weekend in a 9-41 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

One of the major problems in New York is inconsistent play from their offensive line, and facing one of the best defensive lines in the business is going to make things impossible for the Giants to gain momentum. I still think Eli Manning is a premier quarterback, but Julius Peppers suddenly came to life last weekend to decimate the left side of the o-line for the Giants.

Facing Jared Allen will likely yield similar results, meaning that Manning and tailback Brandon Jacobs are in for a frustrating day.

New York Giants (8-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (11-4)

Sunday, January 3rd — Metrodome, Minnesota — 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Minnesota -9 (47.5)

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After turning in a horrible performance two weeks ago, Brett Favre and Brad Childress were able to start scoring like they used to against Chicago. The offense, while frustrated at time thanks to the explosiveness of a motivated Bears defense, was able to march the ball at will in the fourth quarter.

A lapse by the secondary caused Minnesota to lose in overtime, but those type of big plays simply haven’t been part of the Giants’ gameplan. They’re a much more methodical team which prefers short gains.

That’s part of the reason they’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 3-7 SU overall during that span. Against Minnesota on the road they are 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU in their last 6 visits, but the Vikings have much more to play for. You can make a case that the Giants are going to attempt to go out with a bang, but the Vikings need this win more than New York does.

Ensuring that the 40-year old Favre is rested for the playoffs will be priority one for the Vikings and the only way that happens is if they win in Week 17 NFL betting, and cross their fingers that Philadelphia gets handled by the Cowboys. With a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 games at home, and a five game winning streak at the Metrodome, the suddenly vulnerable Vikings will restore your betting faith on their march to the Super Bowl.

Furious Free Pick: Minnesota -9 (UNDER)

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NHL New Year’s Eve 3 Game Pack

The NHL New Year’s Eve schedule is packed and features many players that have been newly named to their respective country’s Olympic teams. Player’s Olympic Roster spots and Snubs highlight Thursday night’s action in the NHL.

San Jose Sharks at Phoenix Coyotes

San Jose are winners of six straight games and boast four Canadian Olympians. The Sharks visit a Phoenix team that has won four of their last 5 games – the only loss during that span was to the Sharks at San Jose on Dec. 28 th.

The Sharks and the Coyotes depend on different factors in order to win. The Sharks utilize Top Tier fire power while Phoenix utilizes a complete team game for its success. Both teams are relatively healthy going into a game of two of the four top Western Conference teams.

New Jersey Devils at Chicago Black Hawks

The Devils visit the Hawks for a New Year’s Eve tilt on the heels of an impressive 2-0 shutout of the Pittsburgh Penguins. With all-world and newly named Goaltender Martin Brodeur looking to justify his place on the most powerful Olympic roster, the Devils will utilize their 4 lines to try and stifle the high flying Black Hawks who are winners of three of their last 4 games.

The Chicago Black Hawks have been hot of late. Goal scoring led by Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp have been solid all year. Canadian Olympians Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have anchored the Hawks solid Defense while the goaltending of Cristobal Huet have propelled Chicago into the second seed in the Western conference.

It appears as though it’s going to be the Offense of Chicago vs. the Defensive style of the Devils tonight – the winner of the battle will likely win the game.

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

The Battle of Alberta on New Year’s Eve – what could be better? The Oilers continue their disappointing campaign on the road tonight, following up a somewhat uninspired win against Toronto last night. The Oilers, who are 3-7-0 in their last ten games will be dependant on emotion in this game. They don’t seem to have the roster to be able to compete with a top Tier team.

The Calgary Flames, on the other hand, have a lot to play for. Winners of two straight games, the Flames are only four points up on ninth place Dallas in the Western Conference and will be looking to put some distance between them and the chasers in the Conference. Add in the fact that the Flames will have three Canadian Olympic roster snubs (Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr and Jay Bouwmeester) suiting up tonight, and the Flames should come out hard in an always emotional matchup.

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NFC Games of the Week – Winning Picks

The New Orleans Saints have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the all important 1st round bye, but what about the second seed?

That’s the main question going into the NFC in Week 17. Let’s take a quick look at the games that could have an affect on who does or does not get that important second seed and 1st round bye in the NFC Playoffs.

After checking out the games, log onto the sportsbook and make your bets, and then check back on Monday for write-ups regarding the NFC playoff odds.

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Kick-off: 1:00 pm EST

NFL Odds: Minnesota -9, Total 47 ½

Analysis: The Vikings are deadly at home. Even if they win this, they don’t control their own destiny, but Favre and company know that putting pressure on Philly requires them to spank the G-Men in the first slate of games.

Oh, did I already write that the Vikings are deadly at home? It bears repeating because the Vikings are 4-2-1 ATS in the dome. The over/under is 3 and 4 at home as well and the G-Men are just atrocious right now offensively.

The Giants scored only 9 points last week and lets be honest, they freakin’ gave up against the Panthers. They’re going to really give up against the Vikings.

I’m going to parlay this thing!

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Pick: Minnesota at -9 to under 47 ½

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Kick-off: 4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds: Arizona -3 ½, Total 43 ½

Analysis: Green Bay has been on a roll lately. Even their loss in Pittsburgh was more impressive than most teams victories have been in 2009.

The Packers have won 8 out of their last 11 games straight-up and have gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Those are sterling numbers. On the road in 2009, the Packers were 5 and 2 ATS.

Arizona can secure the 2nd seed in the playoffs with a victory and a Minnesota and Philadelphia loss. I suspect that Minnesota will have won by the time this game kicks off. So, the Cardinals should be somewhat flat in this one.

Oh, yes. The Cardinals also couldn’t cover spreads against San Francisco and Detroit in 2 out of their last 3 games. They also haven’t played a team of Green Bay’s caliber in about a month.

Pick: Green Bay Packers at -3 ½

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Kick-off: 4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds: Dallas -2, Total 47

Analysis: This is the most meaningful game on Sunday because the winner of this game wins the NFC East.

Not only that, but if the Eagles win they also secure the 2nd seed in the playoffs. If the Cowboys win, and Minnesota and Arizona lose, they would secure the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

The ‘Boys have won 4 out of their last 6 including that awesome victory over the Saints in New Orleans two games ago, but I’m not ready to jump onto their bandwagon just yet. To me, the Cowboys looked great against New Orleans and somewhat flat against Washington.

Yes, the Cowboys defense is playing exceptionally well right now, but the Saints had their chances and Washington just isn’t very good.

So, my thinking is that Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson expose that defense some and that the pressure really gets to the ‘Boys who might be reading too much good press about themselves in between practice sessions. The Cowboys are good, make no mistake, but Philly is better.

The one glaring trend to me is that the Eagles are 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Dallas. They’ve got the Cowboys’ number.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles at +3

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Capital One Bowl Free Pick – LSU Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany

The college football betting season enters 2010 with a flurry of games. In what promises to be one of the best non-BCS games of the entire bowl season, the LSU Tigers (9-3, 5-7 ATS) will lock horns with the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2, 6-6 ATS) in the Capital One Bowl at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

The Bayou Bengals most likely wrapped up their berth in the best non-BCS game for an SEC team when it beat Arkansas at home 33-30 in overtime in its final regular season game.

It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Penn State was headed to the Capital One Bowl after Iowa was taken to the Orange Bowl. Both of these teams are BCS-caliber squads, and the oddsmakers are having a tough time finding a line to stick on the game. The college football bowl odds feature Penn State as slender two-point favorites, while the ‘total’ has been lined at 43.5.

The Tigers sort of sputtered a bit down the stretch, but considering how brutal their schedule was, it’s hard to blame them. Games against Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida at home and Washington, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss on the road are no laughing matter.

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HC Les Miles should be thrilled that his squad can still successfully muster a ten-win season. The offense has just been brutal at times in 2009, ranking 107th in the land at just 309.8 yards per game. QB Jordon Jefferson has been the subject of a lot of criticism in Baton Rouge, as he only threw for 1,958 yards and 16 TDs this year in the rough and tumble SEC.

Even though the defense only allowed 16.0 points per game, it’s hard to argue that its numbers just aren’t as good as they usually are. LSU’s ‘D’ only ranked 26th in the land at 326.2 yards per game; for a Miles-coached team, better was expected even if the schedule was brutal.

Penn State’s problem this year was playing in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions were crippled by both Iowa and Ohio State on their home turf and ultimately went just 2-6 ATS there.

It was a relatively disappointing year for both RB Evan Royster and QB Daryll Clark, both of which were on the preseason Heisman watch list. Royster averaged 5.8 yards per carry and amassed 1,110 yards to go with six rushing scores. Clark threw for 2,787 yards and 23 TDs, but his ten INTs really drew the ire of Nittany Lion nation at times this year.

LSU looks like a team on a mission right now. The Tigers played a significantly tougher schedule than Penn State, and they’re ready for the challenge from one of the elite teams in the Big Ten. Don’t look for a ton of offense in this one, but that’s how the Bayou Bengals like it. Take the points all the way to the bank in this college bowl betting affair.

Rose’s Recommendation: 2* LSU Tigers

Rating Scale 1* – 5*

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Battle of Dallas – Mavericks at Rockets

Thursday, December 31st – 7:05 PM ET

Basketball Betting Spread: Mavericks -1
  
The Week That Was: Mavericks 

It was a light but highly successful week for coach Rick Carlisle’s club, which asserted itself as the second-best team in the Western Conference. Dallas – as it enters Houston for this Thursday throwdown – will have played only two games in the past seven days, but those two games showed that the Mavs, barring injuries, will be a force to be reckoned with in the NBA Playoffs. 

On Dec. 26, Dallas fought through the post-holiday blahs to hold off Memphis, 106-101. Beating the Grizzlies isn’t anything special, but what was significant about the win is that it was achieved despite a scoreless fourth quarter from superstar Dirk Nowitzki. A 12-point fourth quarter from Jason Terry helped the Mavs to a gritty and gutsy five-point triumph. 

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The week’s other game was a highly-anticipated duel in Denver against the Nuggets on Dec. 27. Dallas and Denver are fighting for the No. 2 seed in the West, behind the Los Angeles Lakers, and after gutting out a 104-96 win in the Rocky Mountains, the Mavs have to feel really good about themselves. Seven different players scored in double figures for Dallas, who moved past Denver in the conference standings. 

The Week That Was: Rockets 

The Rockets put together an entirely respectable week. They didn’t run the table in three contests, but they did go 2-1, and their one loss was entirely understandable. 

On Dec. 26, Houston made a long post-Christmas trek to New Jersey and held off the Nets, 98-93. Guard Aaron Brooks broke a 91-91 tie with a layup at the 37-second mark of regulation. After New Jersey’s Keyon Dooling missed a go-ahead 3-pointer on the following possession, Brooks made a pair of free throws to give his team a two-possession lead. Brooks made two more foul shots a few seconds later to salt the game away.  

On Dec. 27 in Cleveland, the Rockets were grounded by the Cavaliers, 108-83. The Rockets scored only 15 points in the third quarter, but in the meantime, Cleveland was sharp enough to post 32 points in that same period. The Cavs hit five 3-pointers early in the third to widen their lead, and the outcome was quickly settled. 

On Dec. 29, Rick Adelman’s Rockets regrouped at home and topped New Orleans, 108-100. After getting outscored 31-13 in the third quarter, Houston flexed its muscles with a 34-18 fourth-quarter surge to shoot down the Hornets.
 
Outlook & Pick 

The Rockets – who appear to be on the verge of trading Tracy McGrady – know how to play together as a team, and like playing with each other as well. However, Dallas is a team on the rise, and after taking down Denver on the road, the prospect of coming to Houston shouldn’t intimidate the Mavericks at all. Dirk Nowitzki and Houston forward Carl Landry had a nasty collision the last time these two teams played. Expect Nowitzki to play big and lift Dallas to a Texas-sized victory.  

Winning Pick: Mavericks

The Rose Bowl – Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

Friday, January 1st – 5:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl ( Pasadena, CA)

College Football Spread: Oregon -4  

Ohio State: The Week That Was  

The Buckeyes already owned a Big Ten title, but in their Nov. 21 conference finale against Michigan, there was hardly reason to relax. One of college football’s most storied rivalries demanded a full-tilt effort, and that’s what Jim Tressel’s team provided in a 21-10 win over the hated Wolverines. 

OSU’s offense struggled, as quarterback Terrelle Pryor went just 9 of 17 for 67 yards with one touchdown and one interception. However, when the Buckeyes needed a big play, Pryor provided it on a 3 rd and goal screen pass to Daniel Herron for a 12-yard touchdown and a 21-10 Ohio State Buckeyes advantage with 4:46 left in the third quarter. The Buckeye defense intercepted Michigan quarterbacks three times in the fourth quarter to preserve the 11-point triumph.

Oregon: The Week That Was

The Ducks won the Pac-10 championship on Dec. 3, when Chip Kelly’s crew turned back Oregon State, 37-33. The thrilling and fulfilling four-point win was the product of many factors, but the main ingredients in the Ducks’ mountaintop moment were running back LaMichael James, quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, and a flinty red zone defense.  

James romped for a 52-yard touchdown that gave Oregon a 34-33 lead late in the third quarter. Masoli converted a huge 4 th and 3 by running over an Oregon State safety with 3:20 left in regulation time, thereby enabling the Ducks to keep the ball away from the Beavers. Oregon’s defense forced two OSU field goals in the red zone, and also stopped another Beaver drive that reached the Ducks’ 21.

The Week That Is:  

The Cleveland Plain-Dealer and reporter Doug Lesmerises published a story on Monday which said that Terrelle Pryor has been playing with a partial tear in a knee ligament. (Pryor didn’t say which knee it is.) While it’s true that almost all football players are dealing with some pain at this point in the season, Pryor is a player who can’t afford a bad set of wheels.

He needs to be able to run for first downs and use his blazing open-field speed. Pryor’s physical limitations should make it comparatively easy for Oregon Ducks to at least contain the Buckeyes and prevent Ohio State from ringing up a big point total.  

Because of its quarterback’s physical handicap, Ohio State is in big trouble. Oregon is a confident team with a modernized spread option attack that the Buckeyes can’t easily prepare for.

Michigan does employ a version of the spread, but the Wolverines (on Nov. 21) lacked the fleet-footed weapons that could seriously challenge Ohio State’s physical defense. Oregon –  with James, Masoli and receiver Jeff Maehl – has the playmakers who can expose the Buckeyes on the perimeter. It should be a familiar refrain in the Rose Bowl: The Big Ten champion loses. 

College Football Bowl Betting Pick: Oregon -4

2010 Winter Classic Team Previews – Boston Bruins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia Flyers 18-18-2 – The Flyers have been one of the most disappointing teams so far in the 2009-2010 NHL season.

With a record of 18-18-2, the club has had to deal with the firing of a coach (John Stevens) and the subsequent systems overhaul by a new coach (Peter Laviolette), while dealing with injuries to it’s # one goaltender (Ray Emery) and perennial all-star Simone Gagne.

Despite all of the adversity, the underachieving Flyers are only 2 points back of the final Eastern Conference Playoff spot. 

Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Danielle Briere an Simone Gagne are a good nucleus at forward – one that should be good enough to contend for a playoff spot at very least. On Defense, Chris Pronger was added in the off season to anchor an unheralded, but solid group of Defensemen that include the likes of Kimmo Timonen and Matt Carle. 

Goaltending, as always has been a huge issue for the Flyers.  Failed experiments like Arturo Nittimaki and Martin Biron plagued the Flyers in the past, but the signing of Ray Emery was supposed to give the Flyers a bonafide #1 goalie.  That was until he got injured and the team was forced to rely on untested Michael Leighton and well traveled Brian Boucher between the pipes.

The Flyers, as always were many people’s preseason pick to be the third or fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.  Now is the time to make a run and with a National Television audience on New Year’s Day.  The Flyers will be out to prove that they belong with the Top tier or two of NHL teams.

Boston Bruins – 19-12-7 – The Boston Bruins are currently in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, about where most analysts thought that they would be. 

The Bruins enter the NHL Winter Classic in the middle of the pack when talking about goal scoring, goaltending, and most other team statistics.  With a 8-6-4 home record, the Bruins will be looking to avenge a December 14th 3-1 loss to the Flyers.  A win on New Year’s day would certainly put room between themselves and the ninth place Eastern Conference team, cementing their solid playoff position.

Although the Bruins have no one in the Top 50 in HNL scoring, they definitely play a team concept with leaders on Offense (Marc Recchi and Marc Savard), Defense (Zdeno Chara) and in net (the tandem of Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask).  The Bruins are a complete team – the type of team that will give their opposition fits.  They will look to continue to roll 4 lines and keep the Flyers off balance.

Their goal will be to limit mistakes, as always, and depend on their net minders to bail them out when they do.

Boston is largely an unspectacular team that shows up each and every night.  Effort and a team concept are the strengths of the Bruins.  They don’t jump on teams, they simply compete hard and hope that their efforts are rewarded.  The impending return of the durable Milan Lucic (still a week or so away) will only bolster the grit on this team, and add some scoring touch going forward.

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2009 Humanitarian Bowl Betting – Bowling Green vs. Idaho

2009 Humanitarian Bowl

December 30 – 4:30 pm EST

Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID

Bowling Green Falcons -2 -130 Over 68
Idaho Vandals +2 +110 Under 68

On December 30, the Idaho Vandals and the Bowling Green Falcons take the blue turf in Boise Idaho to battle it out for the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl. The Humanitarian Bowl features two bowl eligible teams from the Western Athletic Conference and Mountain West Conference.

The BetOnline.com bookmakers have the MWC representatives Bowling Green Falcons as -2 point favorites with a predicted over/under of 68. A straight up wager on the underdog Idaho Vandals will pay bettors +110 on the moneyline.

Both the Vandals and the Falcons come in the game sporting identical 7-5 (7-5 ATS) records but they both took different paths to get there. The Vandals won six of their first seven and dropped four of their final five. The Falcons started slow winning only one of their first five then finished strong winning six of their final seven, including their current four game win streak.

Idaho’s finish had a lot to do with their awful defense; the Vandals give up almost 425 yards a game allowing opponents to score 35.5 a game, the worst of any team that qualified for bowl season.

Idaho allowed opponents to pass at will, which is a result of their poor pass rush (14 sacks), and takeaways (14).

Regardless of how many points the Vandals give up on defense, the offense will keep them in the game. Lead by quarterback Eddie Enderle (2666 yards, 18TD, 9INT) and spread the ball around on the ground with DeMaundray Woolridge, Princeton McCarty and Deonte Jackson combining for 1,791 yards and 17 TDs.

The Bowling Green Falcons just kept getting stronger as the season went on, their defense which gave up 26.2 point a game this season were able to keep that number at a much lower 21.3 points a game over the final half dozen.

The Falcons offense, like the defense turned in up as the season went on, scoring 31.6 points a game over their final eight games. Quarterback receiver duo of Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes who hooked up for 1551 yards and 16 touchdowns through the air. If Idaho is to slow the Falcons, they will need to take away Barnes as an option for Sheehan. No other Bowling Green receiver had more than two touchdowns.

Humanitarian Bowl Betting Bottom Line

These are two different teams on two different levels, with Idaho tanking late and Bowling Green coming in on a high. The Falcons should throw, throw and throw some more against the week Vandals secondary. The Vandals haven’t stopped anyone threw the air, why should we believe something changed during the break. I like these teams to score a lot of points and the total of 68 very reachable considering the poor defenses on both sides of the ball but I’m laying off this one, as the Falcons have been stopping teams of late.

BetOnline.com Humanitarian Bowl Free Pick: Bowling Green Falcons -2

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