UFC 104 Betting – Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Daddy Stevenson

In the UFC, people throw around the term “gatekeeper” like it’s a bad thing. But considering the talent and depth of the UFC’s lightweight division, it’s not a bad way for guys like Spencer “The King” Fisher and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson to make a living.

Watching the two gatekeepers go at it this Saturday at UFC 104 should make for one of the best fights and best stylistic matches of the night, if Fisher can stay off of his back and out of Stevenson’s ground and pound range, that is.

Fisher is the lanky, flashy striker with the slick submission game who happens to be one of commentator Joe Rogan’s favorite fighters. Just hearing Rogan go nuts over Fisher during the most mundane moments should be enough to make this fight exciting.

Then there’s Stevenson, the short, compact, powerful wrestler with a penchant for slapping rear-naked chokes on his opponents with blinding speed and delivering ground-and-pound beatings that leave both his face and his opponent’s face in many cases bloodied and battered.

The odds in the Sportsbook for this one has Stevenson listed as a -260 favorite to +200 odds for the underdog Fisher.

As mentioned previously, the key for Fisher will be to stay off his back and to use his guard to keep Stevenson at bay if he happens to get there.

Fisher is probably a better offensive jiu-jitsu specialist than defensive, so staying out of takedown range will be key in this one.

Fisher will try and work the jab and use the threat of knees to accomplish that, but he has the tendency to get a little wild with his strikes and that could be trouble, giving Stevenson the opportunity for the takedown.

Stevenson will end up on top at some point during this fight and then it will be up to Fisher to somehow scramble to his feet.

Both fighters have shown some chinks in their armor in recent fights, but Fisher is the guy with the higher upside and he had been getting better until his recent unimpressive decision win over Caol Uno.

Fighting Uno wasn’t pretty but Fisher got the win over a wrestler with similar abilities to Stevenson, and that should make all the difference going into this one as Fisher will have a good idea of what to expect.

If Fisher makes the necessary adjustments to his style and comes out with a game plan to exploit his size and striking advantages over Stevenson, he’s fully capable of pulling the upset in this one. And that’s why I like “The King” to win.

The pick: Spencer Fisher (+200).

UFC 104 Welterweight Pick – Johnson vs. Yoshida

UFC 104 Breakdown – Johnson vs. Yoshida in Welterweight Battle!

This is a textbook match of striking versus wrestling. The powerful Johnson is a ball of dynamite rolled in to a 6-foot-2 frame, and his striking power is perhaps the best in his entire division. After exploding all over Luigi Fioravanti’s face at UFC Fight Night in February, Johnson has had a long time to refine his game in preparation for a seasoned Judo specialist like Yoshida.

When you’re laying your money down on this one, it’s strictly a preference for what you prefer. Do you take a fine-tuned grappling specialist like Yoshida, or a welter weight with undeniable knockout power like Johnson? If you’re a UFC fan, then you’ll be behind Johnson, but if you stupidly over think this match, then you’ll be backing Yoshida. Guess which one’s a bigger mistake.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yashiyuki Yoshida
UFC Betting Line: Johnson -350 / Yoshida +250

Johnson’s combination of power and grit are going to be a huge difference maker here. Yoshida often waddles in to fights looking for a take down. It’s not going to surprise me one bit when he tries to outsmart Johnson, and underestimates his blinding speed. Few UFC betting fans will forget how quickly Yoshida folded against Josh Koscheck, who was out to prove his striking power.

In this division, few fighters possess knockout power like Johnson. He doesn’t have the overall game to be a contender yet, but he’s well on his way. Dana White knows exactly how exciting Johnson can be, and how much fans will pay to see a lightning fast striker who fights like he’s about to be raped in prison. Yoshida was thrown in his way just to build his stock, which is exactly what I expect Johnson to do.

Furious Free Pick: Johnson -350 (TKO 3rd Round)

The Year of the Dragon – Shogun vs. Machida at UFC 104

Since Lyoto Machida’s destruction of Rashad Evans, the MMA media has dubbed 2009 “The Year of the Dragon,” practically penciling in Machida for a win in his next fight regardless of opponent. Lets be a little more objective than that.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3 MMA record)  is not automatic win for anyone, and many people believe that the former PRIDE champion has what it takes to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year at UFC 104 on Saturday.

In fact, it’s pretty shocking for Rua to be an underdog, but even more shocking to see him listed as the kind of gigantic underdog he in the BetOnline Sportsbook in his light heavyweight title fight against Machida (15-0).

Machida is a -450 to +325 favorite against Rua, who is coming off a brutal KO of Chuck Liddell in his last fight inside the Octagon.

Rua looked like the old Shogun in that one, outclassing the former champion Liddell before drilling him with a lunging left and moving in for the kill.

But prior to that, Shogun looked shaky to say the least against Mark Coleman as both fighters gassed out late in the fight before Shogun took home a sloppy TKO win as the aging Coleman.

Considering that performance and the fact that Liddell was obviously on the downside of his career, no one’s entirely sure if the old Shogun is back and fully recovered from his knee injuries and other problems. But if he is, he’s worth a strong look by bettors for an upset over Machida.

The most likely outcome of the fight, however, is that Machida frustrates Shogun with his elusive style the way he has everyone else and picks away at him from long range using his phenomenal arsenal of karate kicks.

Machida has never lost a round in UFC competition and is hit less often than any other fighter in the league’s history, and Shogun’s brawling style could be a bad matchup in this fight unless he fights smarter and more efficiently than ever before.

Machida has even added knockout power to his arsenal as he continues to mature and get stronger, as Evans and Thiago Silva both learned. The same fate could await Shogun this time around as Machida takes his time, gets a feel for Shogun’s style, and then answers with a few well-timed flurry of counterpunches to take him out.

Shogun is still an elite fighter, but without the head stomps and soccer kicks he and his Chute Boxe teammates were known for to finish fights in the PRIDE Fighting Championships, he just doesn’t scare people the way he used to do.

The pick: Lyoto Machida (-450)

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 104

Can technique prevail over pure physical ability? It often does in the sports world, and that theory will be tested at UFC 104 as Anthony “Rumble” Johnson brings his hard-hitting, brawling style to the Octagon against judo phenom Yoshiyuki Yoshida.

“Rumble” Johnson has the ability to explode for the knockout blow at any time, and he’s one of the most exciting up-and-coming prospects in the UFC welterweight division.

Yoshida, aka “Zenko,” on the other hand, had a setback in his rise up the ranks as Josh Koscheck knocked him senseless during the UFC Fight for the Troops event in his second-to-last fight.

Yoshida rebounded well, however, bouncing back to choke out Brandon Wolff and to establish himself as a solid force in the division.

The BetOnline Sportsbook has Johnson listed as the favorite, however, and by a wide margin. Johnson is a -350 to +250 favorite over the underdog Yoshida as Saturday night draws near.

For Yoshida to shock the UFC betting world and pull the upset, he will need to fight an extremely technical and smart fight and to keep Johnson under wraps using his grappling and breathtaking throws.

Yoshida also has a big edge in the submission game as well, showing off his prowess with wins over the man known simply as War Machine by anaconda before defeating Wolff.

Considering Johnson’s ground game is still pretty raw, that would seem to make Yoshida a good bet in this one.

But Yoshida is outclassed in a huge way from a physical standpoint going in, as he is one of the slightest welterweights in the UFC and not the fastest or most powerful guy.

Johnson on the other hand is one of the biggest, most powerful guys in the division and his athletic ability is second to none.

If Koscheck could knockout Yoshida with the ease that he did in their previous fight, conventional wisdom says that Johnson will have a great chance of doing the same.

Yoshida looked afraid of Koscheck in that one as he backed up against the cage, dropped his hands, and absorbed the biggest knockout blow the UFC had seen in some time.

Expect him to come back stronger mentally and more prepared to face a striker of Johnson’s caliber, but in the end, Yoshida won’t be able to stay away from the big punch as he will end up getting caught in a scramble and blasted when he least expects it, leading to a TKO win as Johnson pounces on Yoshida to finish the fight in the second round.

The pick: Anthony Johnson (-350).

Weekend Stakes Races: Grade II Lexus Raven Run and Grade III Harold C. Remer Sr. Stakes

Race-times: Lexus Raven Run at 5:13 pm EST and Harold C. Remer Sr. at 7:00 pm EST

This week’s weekend graded stakes races take place at Keeneland and Santa Anita.

Santa Anita, the host of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, and Keeneland have both run their biggest Breeders’ Cup prep races but still offer terrific thoroughbred betting action on Saturday.

The highlight of the Keeneland card is Race 9, the Grade II Lexus Raven Run. The highlight of the Santa Anita card is Race 8, the Grade III Harold C. Remer Sr. Stakes.

Let’s take a look at both races.

Keeneland – Race 9

Grade II Lexus Raven Run

$300,000

For Fillies, Three Years Old

7 furlongs on Polytrack

Sky Haven was last seen chasing Indian Blessing and Sara Louise in a Grade II at Belmont. The Steve Asmussen trained miss lost by only 3 ½ lengths that day and finished third. Now, she returns to an all weather surface where she is 2 and 1 out of 3 lifetime races. Sky Haven deserves a long shot’s chance at the 8 to 1 morning line odds.Let’s put her on top. Flashing followed up her Grade I win in the Test with a third place finish at 6 ½ furlongs in a Grade III at Presque Isle Downs. The Saeed Bin Suroor, Godolphin owned filly, faces a much easier field than the Test and returns to 7 furlongs, a distance she is 2 for 2 at. Just Jenda, out of the Larry Jones’ barn, should get a perfect trip from the 2 hole. It’s hard to bet against Jones, but Just Jenda has never run over an all weather surface before.

1. Sky Haven
2. Flashing
3. Just Jenda

Santa Anita – - Race 8

Grade III Harold C. Remer Sr. Stakes

$100,000

For Fillies, Three Years Old

1 mile on turf

The Bobby Flay owned Mrs Kipling was overmatched in the Grade I American Oaks in July, but now returns in a Grade III that she actually could do very well in. In fact, she should probably win returning to an easier spot and at a distance that she has been successful running at. Flay should end up in the winner’s circle with this filly on Saturday.

Century Park was terrific on Cal Cup Day and now goes back to a mile distance where she has had limited success. She does get the rail, though, and there is hardly any other speed in this race. She could take the lead or run just off. There is a huge upside to Team Valor’s Minute Limit who is 2 and 2 out of 5 lifetime races. Trainer John Sadler has put in some decent works into the filly since her last race in August and jockey Joel Rosario rides her for the third time.

1. Mrs Kipling
2. Century Park
3. Minute Limit

Horse Racing Picks – $250,000 Empire Classic Stakes

Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday October 24

Stakes Saturday takes us to Lexington first for a wide open $300,000 Raven Run Stakes (G2), which drew a full field of 14 along with two also eligibles.

There may not be a better betting race anywhere on Saturday. There are plenty of live longshots in the race, and I am not even certain who the favorite is going to be.

I landed on the improving Moontune Missy, who figures to be a generous price.

Then we are off to the Big Apple for New York Showcase Day. There are five stakes races for New York breds, and rain has knocked the two turf races originally scheduled for today, and they will be run on Sunday instead.

The feature is the $250,000 Empire Classic Stakes, which drew a full field of twelve, led by the sharp Future Prospect, who figures to be a short price.

An interesting longshot is the filly Weathered, who takes on the boys. She is 10/1 on the morning line, and I am going to use her underneath the likely favorite along with my top pick Haynesfield, who looks primed for a good effort this afternoon.

Keeneland Race 9 Raven Run S. G2 Post time 5:13 ET

#6 Moontune Missy   15/1
#11 Sky Haven   8/1
#8 Flashing   3/1
#2 Just Jenda   4/1

#6 Moontune Missy looks primed for a good effort here in her third start of her current form cycle and we should catch a generous price on this filly. She made a good late rally to win an overnight stake last out at Belmont Park in the slop in her second start off the bench. She broke her maiden over the Pro Ride surface last fall earning a solid number and that bodes well for her first trip over polytrack here. She had a good breeze over the surface on Oct. 19 and is in good hands with the Harty barn.

#11 Sky Haven is coming off a third place finish in the Gallant Bloom (G2) behind two very good fillies in Indian Blessing and Sara Louise. The filly has three trips over Tapeta in her career and she is a nose away from being perfect over the synthetic surface. She won the Presque Isle Masters last fall in her last trip over the fake stuff. The Asmussen filly comes into this race holding the top last out speed fig and she looks like she has been keeping tougher company in her last two starts than most of these. Her 8/1 ML looks more than fair.

Wagering Tips
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,11 / 2,6,8,11
TRI: 6,11 / 2,6,8,11 / 1,2,5,6,8,11

Belmont Park Race 10 Empire Classic Post time 5:40 ET

#5 Haynesfield   4/1
#6 Future Prospect   8/5
#4 Weathered   10/1
#10 Ruffino   8/1

#5 Haynesfield was a game second last out in the Sir Key when returning off a when returning off a seven month layoff. The colt was one of the most promising two year olds last year winning the Count Fleet and Whirlaway before the wheels came off in the Gotham (G3), then he hit the shelf. The colt came back off the bench with a good effort and looks set up for a good effort here second off the layoff. The colt is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.

#6 Future Prospect comes into the race off back to back wins versus state breds and has landed in the exacta in eight straight starts. The gelding owns a solid pace prolife throughout with the edge in early and mid pace numbers. The gelding has handled a wet track and has won three of four over the main track here. Plenty to like about this Maker runner except for the likely short price.

#4 Weathered is taking on the boys here. She bounced back off fourth and fifth place finishes in Grade 1 company by beating state breds last out in a sharp effort. She will need her best to be competitive here but she has run well over a wet track (5-3-0-0) and figures to be a decent price in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,10
TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,10 / 2,4,5,6,10

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

UFC 104 Picks – Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

UFC 104 Preview – Stevenson to Win Ugly Against Fisher

Spencer Fisher has been around long enough to be considered a contender in the lightweight division, but he’s just never been able to get over that proverbial hump. He’s hit a point in his career where everyone pays him the respect a fighter with twenty-seven fights under his belt deserves.

But now he faces a scrapper in Stevenson that likes to finish fights before they get to a decision, which is exactly how 4-of-5 fights have ended for Fisher.

Fisher has become the kind of fighter that Keith Jardine is in his division; a bouncer that guards the front door to contendership. Stevenson needs to stay away from trying to prove he can stand in as a striker with his stubby arms and focus on the ground game that has choked out the majority of his opponents.

Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)

UFC Betting Line: Stevenson -260 / Fisher +200

Don’t expect a lot of highlights past the first round. Stevenson’s going to get his feet wet, see if his short punches  can even reach Fisher’s face. When he sees that his arms haven’t grown since his last fight, he’ll take to Fisher’s ankles like a fox trying to dig out a rabbit hole.

Fisher will test Stevenson, but nothing more. Stevenson will win in a unanimous decision when he pulls out every stop in his recipe of submissions as Fisher does exactly what he’s done his entire career – survive.

Furious Free Pick: Stevenson -260 (Decision)

UFC 104 Betting – Velasquez vs. Rothwell in the Co-Main Event

UFC 104 – Velasquez Puts His Streak on the Line Against Rothwell

It should be a hint to the betting universe that Velasquez’s original opponent, Shane Carwin, was chosen to be the one to take on Brock Lesnar at UFC 105 instead of the Mexican mauler. Velasquez, though undefeated, lacks the experience and pedigree to keep up with at the championship level. And while this match will serve as a number-one contender’s match, the heavyweight division is brutally shallow.

The fact that Ben Rothwell is making his UFC debut in a fight to face the champion of Lesnar-Carwin, should speak volumes about the depth of the division, and Rothwell’s track record. To put this in perspective, he has 5x as many wins as Velasquez, and his only loss in four years was against Andrei Arlovski this summer.

So how will this pan out for the 6-foot-5, 265 pound American fighter? This fight is a lot closer than the fight lines would tell you. Rothwell is only 28-years old, and has the edge as a grappler. His experience will be a necessary asset at UFC 104, because Cain’s motor is the x-factor in this match.

Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)

UFC Betting Line: Velasquez -300 / Rothwell +220

Rothwell has to find a way to wear down the beast that is Velasquez, who has been noted to out perform smaller opponents in cross-training routines. Simply put, he’s a beast whose tank has never even dipped. He comes out you relentlessly and his punches have rearranged the faces of many opponents.

Experience counts for a lot in the UFC, and Rothwell isn’t one of the older junkies roaming the circuit. Sure, he’s a fill in for Carwin just to give this card some depth, but I think Rothwell’s world of experience pays off and frustrates Velasquez. This is the biggest fight in Velasquez’s young career, and he’ll make a mistake by being too aggressive against Rothwell and put himself in a position to be submitted.

Would Velasquez be the best opponent to face Lesnar? Absolutely. But that fight will have to as Rothwell gets the upset of the night and takes down the inexperienced monster from Arizona.

Furious Free Pick: Rothwell +220 (Submission 2nd Round)

UFC 104 Betting – Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

If Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami were flashier fighters, or maybe if they had attitudes like a certain former WWE star in the UFC, there’s no doubt they’d be on the main card of UFC 104 betting event on Saturday.

But both of them are much more concerned with the bottom line, winning, and both of them are quite good at it, which should lead to an entertaining fight for MMA purists this weekend on the undercard.

In fact, from a pure talent standpoint, this doesn’t come close to resembling a typical undercard fight, which is a testament to the growing talent in the UFC ranks.

Okami has battled tons of injuries, but he has been thought of as one of Anderson Silva’s biggest challengers in the middleweight division for many months.

Sonnen is an up-and-coming prospect who has some of the best wrestling in all of the UFC, and that style is something Okami hasn’t seen in a while.

The BetOnline Sportsbook oddsmakers have Okami listed as a solid favorite in this one going in at -250 to Sonnen’s +185 in the UFC 104 betting odds.

Unlike predictions regarding main event of Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua, this one seems destined for a decision as both guys are calculated, smart fighters who try to avoid the big mistake.

Sonnen’s physical presence was too much for Dan Miller in a fairly big upset in his last fight, but that won’t be the case with Okami. Many Japanese fighters find themselves at a weight and/or strength disadvantage when they come to the states but Okami is a different breed altogether as one of the strongest middleweights in the UFC.

Sonnen might be able to land some key takedowns in this one but Okami’s clinch game and ability to wear down his opponents standing is going to be just as difficult for Sonnen to deal with in this fight.

That means it should come down to who can win the striking battle, and Okami has a decided advantage in that department. While Okami doesn’t finish fights the way a guy with his strength and power should, he still has shown quality all-around striking skills that seem to be far ahead of what Sonnen has to offer right now.

Okami has had some injury issues in the past but has had almost a year to recover, and with his career at a crossroads, he will come in motivated and hungry to show UFC fans the skills that made him a title contender in the recent past, winning by unanimous decision yet again.

The pick: Yushin Okami (-250)

Expert Horse Racing Handicapper Picks – Play of the Day from Belmont

Padding Your Bankroll: Friday October 23

There are plenty of live longshots to go around today at Belmont Park, and our play of the day includes a couple of runners that should go off at generous prices.

Our Late Pick 3 play from Keeneland includes a couple of runners that are 12/1 on the morning line, meaning our modest $24 investment could pay handsome dividends if one of them happens to cross the wire first.

The middle leg of our Pick 3 play is the Valley View Stakes (G3), which had to be split into two races because so many three year old fillies showed up.

The seventh race is the first half of the split race with a full field of twelve.

The second division of the race also has a full field, giving us ample opportunity to pad our bankroll today.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 5 Clm $25,000B (3:03 ET)

• #3 Admiralty 10/1
• #2 Don Misil 8/1
• #4 For All Who Conga 4/1
• #9 Point Lookout 6/1

Analysis: #3 Admiralty was the beaten fav last out, regressing in his second start off the bench and I am looking for him to bounce back here. He did not have much of a shot two back off the bench, running into a very deep field of Alw-2 optional claimers. The winner was Giralamo, who came back to win the Jerome (G2) and the third place finisher Ea is graded stakes placed.

We’ll toss the trip to Del Park and look for better here. His career top fig came over the main track here when second in the Postponed last June. Worth a good look here at what should be a decent price.

#2 Don Misil pressed the early pace from the inside and faded to finish ninth last out in that key Alw-2 race. This colt owns back speed figs that are competitive and this looks like a much easier spot here facing $25K claimers that are non-winners of three.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,9
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,9 / 2,3,4,9,12

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 8: $1: 3,10,11,12 / 6,9 / 2,3,10 = $24

KEE Race 8 OClm $80,000N3X (4:42 ET)
#12 Newport Harbour, #10 Northern Belle, #11 War Kill, #3 Nursery Rhyme

#12 Newport Harbour gets the call in yet another very wide open race. This filly passed this condition back in June at Churchill Downs going gate to wire. She is cutting back to a sprint which suits, and she may have regressed a bit last out off a hard fought neck loss two back in the Loudonville at the Spa.

She has only tried the fake stuff once in her career, a fourth place finish here back in ’07 while still in the maiden ranks. The barn has been quiet at the meeting (1 for 14) but is showing a 37% win clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

#10 Northern Belle raced evenly last out in a fifth place finish in the slop at Monmouth Park in the Miss Woodford. She owns back numbers that make her a good fit here and her lone go on poly produced a win here against Alw-1 foes at the spring meeting. She figures to bounce back here getting away from the slop.

KEE Race 9 Valley View S. G3 (5:13 ET)
#9 Aurora Lights, #6 Keertana

#9 Aurora Lights gets the call in the second half of this split race. The Woodbine shipper comes into the race off a sharp win in the Selena (G3) over polytrack and has the look of a filly on the improve. She has only tried turf once in her career, a distant 12th but that was in the maiden ranks and she found traffic troubles on the turf in that outing.

The $800K Keeneland purchase is a much better runner now and willing to give her another look on the turf here. She is a half to multiple stakes winner Master Command ($1.1 million).

#6 Keertana prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third last out in the Garden City (G1) over soft ground at Belmont Park. She has not missed landing in the money in her seven starts on turf and makes her third start of her current form cycle here. She faces easier here and is prove she can handle ground with some give to it. She won the Regret (G3) in June at Churchill Downs over ground labeled as good.

KEE Race 10 Clm $25,000 (5:44 ET)
#3 After Dark, #10 Coulee, #2 She’s Yummy

#3 After Dark checked in fourth last out here a couple of weeks ago after a troubled trip. The mare vied for the early lead while in between runners, had to steady, and was shuffled back. She had to wait in traffic on the far turn and made up some ground late when finally getting some room to run. The mare performed well over the Tapeta at Presque Isle, winning four times over the stuff this year. She is worth another look here if we catch most of the 12/1 ML.

#10 Coulee ships in from Arlington where she pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth going a mile on the turf. She was coming back off a five month layoff and figures to be fitter second off the bench. The mare has won 6 of 16 starts on the synthetic surface and she beaten tougher than these on poly at Turfway earlier this year.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

• R1: #8 Ziggly 12/1
• R2: #8 Souma 15/1
• R3: #1 Lady Alexander 12/1
• R4: #2 Vamel 8/1
• R4: #12 Orthodontist 12/1
• R5: #3 Admiralty 10/1
• R5: #2 Don Misil 8/1
• R6: #6 Storm Hope 8/1
• R6: #7 Victory March 10/1
• R7: #2 Can’t Refuse 12/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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